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The ‘Anytime Goalscorer’ market is one of the most popular player-based markets to bet on and a key staple of accas and bet builders. It can also be a tough market to beat, so this guide will give you some suggestions on how to minimise your losing runs and pick selections with value on your side.
We’ll have weekly shots on target betting tips live on our predictions page, which ties in nicely with the information presented in the article below.
For more information on Paddy Power Super Sub, which is a key feature to keep in mind when backing anytime goalscorers markets, you can read our Paddy Power Super Sub article here.
With the high odds that often come with backing anytime goalscorer markets, it’s a great way to utilize your free bets. We have £300 worth of free bets available ahead of the start of the Premier League season in our Premier League Free Bets article live on-site here.
🔎 Step 1: Look beyond goals scored
Many lazy punters will look at a player’s goalscoring statistics and recent form and base their bet on that alone. These are important details for sure but they are only part of a bigger picture.
The prevalence of more and more data available on players means we have a mountain of information to analyse for our potential selections. We don’t have to trawl through all of it, however. In the case of looking for goalscorers, one metric to look at would be expected goals and it is also worth checking the player’s shooting accuracy – how many shots they are hitting the target with compared to missing it.
Players whose xG is higher than their actual goals output could be seen as unlucky so far, and potentially more likely to score than their current odds suggest. Conversely, some players may have overperformed and you would want to be careful backing those players.
Expected shots on target aren’t necessarily the strongest indicator in themselves, but if a player consistently gets good quality chances on target, it suggests they are a capable goal threat and that should pay off with a goal in the near future.
📊 Step 2: Current form and opponent strength
Similar to the above point, some bettors will look at this and place a lot of importance on these two factors. It certainly helps if the player you are backing is in fine goalscoring form and is an advantage if they are playing a defensively vulnerable team and the player is likely to get chances. However, most of this is already priced into the market.
A potential angle would be to look at players who have undergone a poor run of form but have scored in their most recent game. There are often players who run on hot streaks and breaking their duck would be enough to put a spring in their step for the next game. Statistically, however, the bookmakers will have looked at a bigger sample of games and might not be weighing this as highly as they should be.
Opponent strength is also something to consider, especially with this article being published at the beginning of the season. However, pay careful attention to a team’s new signings and their performances in pre-season.
Are there any additions to the side that are a significant upgrade (especially defensively) that might impact your bet? Is there a change of management and therefore tactical approach and playing style?
Some players love to play against certain clubs and often find themselves scoring against them. Yet, don’t just take that for granted, some sides will have a totally different line-up from what they did three or four years ago, just be aware of whether the line-ups, management, and approach are still broadly similar from both sides before factoring that into your pricing of the bet. Look at how particular players perform against opposing defenders, or if those defenders are likely to start and have been playing poorly recently.
Other factors to consider are players who are notoriously slow starters. Some players take a while to get their shooting boots on in a new season and would be players to be wary of. On the reverse, new signings from abroad who are desperate to impress and are less known to the bookies could also be potential value.
📋 Step 3: Look further down the list
The likeliest candidates to score a goal are going to be priced very short in the betting markets. Most punters will be looking to back them and any value that might have been there would have been eroded with the sheer volume of bets placed on those players.
Bookies know this and will shorten the prices on the players who have taken the most bets/stakes. This leaves opportunities to think a little outside of the box and look at other players who are more generously priced and largely ignored by punters.
Taking the Euros as an example, numerous goalscorers wouldn’t have been at the top of the market, but still scored in key games. For example, Nedim Bajrami, Lukas Provod, Qazim Laci, and Zan Karnicnik to name but a few.
In the Copa America, Colombia had eight different goalscorers, with a cluster of players from defence and midfield contributing.
Although it’s easy to say this in hindsight, when looking at potential players, use your existing knowledge having observed the teams and which players have looked particularly threatening from set pieces or open play and will be likely to play the 90 minutes. Consider players for the weaker side, as even a consolation goal will land you a payout.
⏱️ Step 4: React fast to new information
The biggest edge you can have on goalscorer markets is keeping an eye on new information. Because of injuries or management decisions, players can often change positions on a temporary basis that could end up being long-term. Certain players might also be taken off penalty duty.
For example, Cole Palmer’s goalscorer odds would usually be quite short, considering how many penalties he has scored. If Chelsea were to suddenly change penalty takers if he is out injured or for another reason, you could back that player if you’re quick enough and get a massive advantage on the market. The bookmakers may not have spotted this and you would have a bet at odds that will be slashed once they do.
Replacement strikers will often be priced similarly to the players they’ve replaced but don’t assume that those strikers are just as likely to score. Other more senior members in the team in midfield or defensive areas might be more likely to take responsibility and take more shots than they usually would.
Summary
And that’s all there is to it when it comes to picking an anytime goalscorer selection for any given game.
There is no substitute for effective research not only when it comes to backing goalscorer bets, but also for any bets in general. However, focusing on these four tips should help to minimise the amount of time it takes to research properly.
Looking deeper than surface-level stats such as goals scored, taking the strengths and weaknesses of opponents into consideration, thinking outside the box, and being quick off the mark are all crucial when searching for those value bets to create an edge over the bookies.
Good luck with your betting, and be sure to let me know on Twitter, Instagram, or Facebook if you’ve read this article and seen success from using my methods yourself.
Written by Andy Robson
18+ please gamble responsibly.
