ABC Tips

Garnacho is a player who clearly needs some confidence. I do think he has something to offer this Chelsea side, but for now his focus should be on reaching a level of confidence where he feels comfortable enough to take on his man.

Garnacho’s shot output is one of his most standout traits as a winger, he often finds himself in situations where he can pass or create a chance - but opts to shoot instead, he had three shots in Chelsea’s 5-1 win over Charlton in the last round of the FA Cup with Chelsea having 30 shots overall, 16 of which managed to find the target.

Garnacho is as short as 1.08 to have 2+ shots in this clash, so I’m willing to take the slight risk of taking him to find the target given how high his shot volume tends to be. Garnacho had 30 shots on target across his 23 starts in the Premier League for Manchester United last season, working out to an average of 1.23 shots on target per 90.

Charlie Hughes is a really promising centre back who came through at Wigan before being picked up by Hull last season. I think he has the ceiling to play in the Premier League and he is a very physical player which can come to our advantage when looking for the defender to commit a foul in this clash.

Hughes is versatile enough to be comfortable in a back three or back four, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Hull drop into a more conservative shape in this clash given how dominant Chelsea are expected to be here. He’d line up as one of the outside centre backs in a back three, allowing him licence to have a range of opponents as that role naturally leads to more individual duels and allows the centre back to step into midfield.

Hughes has committed 29 fouls across his 29 appearances for Hull in the Championship this term (1.02 per 90), so he has a consistent foul record which should continue in this clash. Hughes’ main opponent here is likely to be Estevao - Gittens started against Charlton, but as he is injured I expect Rosenior to go with Estevao on that side of the pitch.

Estevao’s foul won record he maintained in Brazil (2.37 fouls won per 90) hasn’t quite translated over to the Premier League yet, but the quality he has will definitely come to the fore in this game given how willing the Brazilian is to travel with the ball and take on his man.

Liam Rosenior’s Chelsea have been a fascinating watch so far with the former Strasbourg boss experimenting with a variety of systems and shapes that have seen Chelsea lose just two of his 10 games in charge so far - with both of these losses coming against Arsenal.

Seven of these matches have seen 3+ goals, with Chelsea only keeping clean sheets at home against Brentford and Pafos in this period. At the moment, I’d say Chelsea are struggling to control matches and maintain a level of performance for the entire 90 minutes - they are good in 15-20 minute spells in games right now, but need to find a way to keep those performance levels high for the duration of the game.

I think Hull can contribute to the goal tally here, they’ve seen 3+ goals in three of their last five matches across all competitions - including a 3-2 defeat against Bristol City last time out. Their 16 home matches in the Championship this term have produced 46 goals, working out to 2.87 goals per game.

I think this will be an open and entertaining watch, with the added element of Rosenior taking charge against his former side which should help to create an exciting atmosphere that produces goals on Friday night.

Chelsea have been making the most of corners this season with the Blues netting 10 of their 47 goals in the Premier League from set pieces this season - notably, this tally has already equalled the number of goals they scored from set pieces in the Premier League last season.

Chelsea are seeing 10.00 corners per game in the Premier League this season, with Chelsea contributing with 5.73 corners per game. This metric drops slightly when looking at their away matches (9.31 match corners per game), but given the gap in quality between these sides - we should see Chelsea slightly exceed their usual corner count.

Chelsea racked up six corners in their 5-1 win over Charlton in the last round of the FA Cup, so there is scope for Chelsea to cover this line on their own. That game saw nine corners in total, and I think Hull can contribute to the corner count seeing as they average nearly 5.00 corners per game at home in the Championship this season.

Leverkusen have been progressing steadily under Kasper Hjulmand this season and are in the race to finish in the European spots. This is quite the climb down from the conversations that Xabi Alonso had Leverkusen in a few seasons ago, but the home side still have the quality required to pick up results against the likes of St Pauli.

Leverkusen come into this game having won four of their last five matches across all competitions, only dropping points in the form of a 1-1 draw against Mochengladbach on the road. One of these games was against St Pauli in the DFB Pokal, which Leverkusen won 3-0 - offering a promising precedent for this encounter. Leverkusen were pretty comfortable in that cup win as well, only conceding one shot on target to St Pauli.

St Pauli have struggled on the road this term with just one win from their 11 away matches, losing eight of these games. Only Heidenheim (4) have picked up fewer points on the road this season in the Bundesliga than St Pauli (5). As well as losing the recent cup tie between the sides, St Pauli also lost the most recent league clash between the teams with Leverkusen running out 2-1 winners on that occasion.

MK Dons come into this game in brilliant form having won four of their last five matches across all competitions, a run that has seen them close the gap to the automatic promotion spots to just three points. 

They welcome a Newport side that have struggled for consistency all season, winning just five of their 30 matches in League Two which is a record that has left them in a perilous position at the bottom of the division.

Newport have lost 10 of their 15 away matches in League Two this season, and have notably only scored 15 goals across these matches while conceding double that tally. Only Crawley (9) and Shrewsbury (6) have picked up fewer points on the road than Newport (11) in League Two this season.  

MK Dons boast a solid home record which can aid them in getting over the line here. They’ve only lost three of their 15 home matches, winning eight of these games. Their defensive record is particularly impressive with only 15 goals conceded across these games, making it difficult to make an argument for Newport causing them too many problems here.

The Eerste Divisie is a brilliant league for goals and this encounter should be no different with Venlo chasing down a spot in the playoffs. Vitesse managed to take all three points when the sides last met, running out 2-1 winners, with the prior meeting also seeing BTTS as Venlo ran out 4-1 winners over Vitesse.

Vitesse have seen 38 goals across their 13 home matches in the Eerste Divisie this season (2.92 per game) and have seen BTTS in four of their last five matches across all competitions.

They don’t have as much to fight for as Venlo do, but Vitesse have improved since the season started and have been posting form which is equivalent to those going for the playoffs since the turn of the year - Vitesse have only lost two of their last nine matches across all competitions.

Venlo have seen BTTS in four of their last five matches across all competitions, and look to be struggling with the pressure of pushing for the playoffs with just one of these games ending in Venlo taking all three points. That win was also the site of their only clean sheet in this period, which was cheaply earned as they allowed their opponents to have seven shots on target.

Marseille have recently parted ways with Roberto De Zerbi following their 5-0 defeat to PSG, which was a result that reflected Marseille’s campaign overall this term with the club also crashing out of the Champions League a few weeks prior. Marseille have seen 3+ goals in each of their last five matches across all competitions, conceding 2+ goals in three of these fixtures.

I’d expect the home side to react to their 5-0 defeat against PSG last time out, and they take on a Strasbourg side who have continued to be an entertaining watch despite swapping Liam Rosenior for Gary O’Neil earlier this year. The most recent meeting between these sides produced exactly three goals as Marseille ran out 2-1 winners over Strasbourg in a clash with a total xG of 3.38.

Strasbourg should sense an opportunity here given the vulnerability around Marseille at the moment, though they have to respond to a setback themselves with the away side here falling to a disappointing 2-1 defeat against Le Havre last time out. Strasbourg’s away matches have been pretty goal heavy this term with 37 across their 11 assignments on the road (3.36 per game).

Heracles have been a reliable source of entertainment in the Eredivisie this season, seeing 88 goals across their 22 matches in the Dutch top flight (4.0 per game). What is particularly striking about their record is the fact that they’ve only drawn two of these matches, suggesting that they lack the ability to grind out results.

This is such a pivotal game in the context of the relegation battle in the Eredivisie, Heracles and Breda are the two bottom placed sides in the Dutch top flight and can deal a real blow to a relegation rival with all three points here, setting up the classic six pointer scenario which is always a good place to look for this type of bet.

Recent head to head meetings also offer promise when looking to pair goals with a winner, this has landed in each of the last two head to head meetings between the sides with one win apiece. Heracles won the most recent clash between the sides, running out 4-1 winners as the away side.

Only one of Heracles’ home games in the Eredivisie this season has ended in a draw, with four wins and five defeats making up the remainder of the 10 matches they’ve contested at home this term. A draw doesn’t do much for either of these sides other than encourage the other sides in the Eredivisie relegation race, which is far from settled.

With just one point separating them in the Swiss Super League, Zurich and Luzern meet in a high stakes clash that’s perfectly set up for goals - and a winner.

Both sides are pushing for a spot in the Championship group, but only one can keep their hopes firmly alive. A draw suits neither, with a five point gap between Zurich and Young Boys in that final place, anything less than victory would be a major setback for either team and had the initiative to the other sides in the race. 

The recent head to head clashes offer promise when it comes to backing BTTS and a winner here, their last league meeting ended 3-2 to Zurich and each of the last five head to head meetings have seen BTTS, with three of these games seeing an outright winner.

Zurich have drawn just one of their 12 home games in the Swiss Super League this term, suggesting that their games usually end one way or the other. This climate is likely to be exaggerated here with both Zurich and Luzern going got a spot in the Championship group. 

Luzern have seen BTTS in four of their last five matches across all competitions. Their most recent outing was a wild 4-3 victory over Grasshopper, highlighting their ability to contribute at both ends.

With similar quality levels, identical motivation, and nothing to gain from a draw, this has all the ingredients for an open, competitive game - and a winner.