ABC Tips

Leicester are in real trouble following their six point deduction and subsequent poor run of form with Gary Rowett’s side now sitting in the relegation zone, though they are just one point from safety. 

Leicester have failed to win any of their last five matches across all competitions, conceding 2+ goals in four of these games - their lack of defensive solidity extends further with the Foxes without a clean sheet in their last 10 matches across all competitions.

Ipswich have found some form over recent weeks and come into this clash having won each of their last three matches, scoring 2+ goals in two of these games. Ipswich have won 12 of their 18 matches at Portman Road this season, netting 34 goals across these games (1.88 per game). Only Coventry (36) have scored more goals at home than Ipswich in the Championship this season.

Leicester have only won four of their 18 matches on the road this season, notably conceding 31 goals across these games (1.72 per game). It’s hard to see how the Foxes tighten up at the back for this clash against an Ipswich side that is in good form - and can close the three point gap to the automatic promotion spots with victory here.

PSV are more than capable of covering this line on their own, which is what they did when the sides met earlier in the season as they ran out 5-1 winners over Alkmaar. 

There aren’t many sides as dominant as PSV in the Eredivisie, they are clearly the best side in the division - and the only way they really get beat is being edged out in a high scoring affair which was the case as they lost 3-2 to Nijmegen last time out. 

Each of the last six head to head meetings between these sides, stretching back to 2023, has seen 3+ goals. PSV have seen 3+ goals in each of their last five matches across all competitions, while Alkmaar have seen 3+ goals in three of their last five matches across all competitions.

PSV have only lost one of their 12 home games in the Eredivisie this season, with these games producing 56 goals (4.66 per game). Alkmaar’s games on the road tend to be pretty end to end with only one draw from their 13 away games - these matches have produced 36 goals (2.76 per game).

Luzern have been a good side to back for entertaining games across recent weeks with each of their last five matches across all competitions seeing BTTS. 

Luzern have come out on top in three of these games, and the reason that they’ve been so competitive is because Luzern are trying to break into the Championship group spots in the Swiss Super League.

The initial league meeting between these sides produced seven goals as Lugano ran out 5-2 winners over Luzern, with that game seeing a combined xG of 2.37 - suggesting that both sides were quite clinical on the day.

Luzern have seen 45 goals across their 14 away matches in the Swiss Super League this term (23 scored, 22 conceded - 3.21 per game). The gap between Luzern and the Championship group spots now sits at eight points so they must win here to keep their hopes of qualifying for the Championship group alive.

Juventus contested a crazy 3-3 draw with Roma last time out, but this assignment should be more straightforward with the Old Lady taking on a Pisa side that have lost four of their last five matches across all competitions, and find themselves nine points adrift of safety at the bottom of Serie A.

Pisa have only managed to win one of their 27 matches in Serie A this season, conceding the third most goals in the division (44) and being the joint second lowest scorers (20). Their away record is even worse - Pisa are the only side in Serie A yet to win an away game this season, which should make this a relatively straightforward task for Juventus.

Juventus ran out 2-0 winners when these sides met earlier in the season, and were very comfortable in that victory with seven shots on target to Pisa’s zero and a vastly superior xG (1.74-0.65). Juventus have plenty to fight for as well, they currently occupy a Conference League place but the Champions League spots are within reach if they can put together a strong run of form.

Villarreal have enjoyed a strong season to date and currently sit fourth in LaLiga, on course to secure a spot in the Champions League next season. They’ve won 10 of their 13 home games in the Spanish top flight this term, only the two Madrid sides and Barcelona have a better home record than Villarreal in LaLiga this term.

Villarreal ran out 3-1 winners over Elche when these sides met earlier in the season, and were very comfortable in registering that victory. They limited Elche to just two shots on target, and scored from three of their four shots on target. Although Villarreal were overly clinical in that game, Elche’s away record would suggest that they are unlikely to get too much joy in this game.

Elche are the only side in LaLiga yet to win a game on the road with eight defeats from their 12 matches. They’ve conceded 24 goals across these games, so most of their away trips are seeing Elche concede at least twice - and they don’t have the attacking quality to account for this weakness at the back.

Elche also come into this game having failed to win any of their last five matches across all competitions, losing three of these games. Villarreal did suffer a heavy defeat to Barcelona last time out, but they are only really bested like this against the elite sides in Spain, so they shouldn’t have too many issues in recording another victory against the worst away side in LaLiga this season.

The most recent meeting between these two ended 3-1 in favour of Fortuna Sittard, with both teams getting on the scoresheet. That result marked the fourth time in the last five head-to-heads that both sides have found the net, and there’s plenty to suggest we could see more of the same here.

Fortuna Sittard have seen BTTS in each of their last five matches across all competitions, and impressively, they’ve won their last two - against Excelsior and Nijmegen - despite those high-scoring affairs. At home in the Eredivisie this season, they’ve lost just three of 12 games, with those matches producing a total of 39 goals, averaging 3.25 per game.

Telstar, meanwhile, have also seen BTTS in four of their last five matches across all competitions, finding the net against sides like Alkmaar and Feyenoord in that stretch. Currently sitting five points from safety, every point is vital as they fight to keep their survival hopes alive. On their travels this season, Telstar’s 12 away games have yielded 27 goals (2.25 per game), though they’ve managed just two wins on the road.

Bologna have come into a really strong patch of form after starting the calendar year a bit slowly. They come into this clash having won each of their last five matches across all competitions, notably keeping a clean sheet in four of these games and only conceding one goal overall across 450 minutes of football.

This doesn’t bode well for a Hellas Verona side who are the joint second lowest scorers in Serie A this season with only 20 goals across their 27 matches - a record that worsens when looking at their away games in Serie A this term. Hellas Verona have only scored eight goals across their 14 away games in Serie A this season, winning just one of these games. 

No side has picked up fewer points on the road in Serie A this season than Hellas Verona, with the away side here also conceding the joint most goals on their travels in the Italian top flight (27). Bologna ran out 3-2 winners when the sides met earlier in the season, and I can see this latest meeting being even more straightforward for Vincenzo Italiano’s side given their home advantage and recent run of form.

Nijmegen really are a bonkers side. I won’t spend too long detailing the tactical intricacies of Dick Schrueder’s setup, but they play with a positivity that few teams in Europe would dare to replicate - basing their approach around a system that encourages every player to bomb forward whenever the chance arises.

That adventurous style has seen Nijmegen feature in some of the most entertaining matches across the continent this season, and it’s served them well in the league standings too. They currently sit fourth in the Eredivisie, within striking distance of the Champions League places.

In terms of goals, Nijmegen have seen 3+ goals in three of their last five matches across all competitions. At home this term, their 12 Eredivisie games have produced a staggering 52 goals - averaging 4.33 per game. The reverse fixture between these sides also delivered, with Nijmegen claiming a 3-2 win away at Volendam. In fact, each of the last five league meetings between these two has seen three goals or more, adding further weight to the expectation of another high-scoring encounter.

The first league meeting between these two sides back in December produced five goals, with Reading running out 3-2 winners over Luton - with both teams also posting respectable xG tallies (1.19–0.99). Reading head into this clash in strong form, having avoided defeat in their last five matches across all competitions, with both teams scoring in all of those games.

Luton are also enjoying a decent run, having lost just once in their last five outings. BTTS has landed in each of their last four matches, most recently in a 2-1 home win over Northampton, sealed by a winner in the final ten minutes. Both sides remain in contention for the playoff spots, and three points here would represent a significant step toward securing a top-six finish.

Reading have won only four of their 16 away games in League One this season, but their matches on the road have been highly entertaining, with 48 goals in total - averaging three per game. With both teams pushing for promotion and so close to the playoff places, expect an open, end-to-end contest as they go all out for the win.

This is a massive game in the playoff battle in League One with both Bolton and Wycombe occupying those coveted spots ahead of kick off. Bolton are much safer in their position with nine points keeping them from the closest challenger in Huddersfield, but Wycombe are in the firing line with their gap to Huddersfield being just a point.

Bolton have seen BTTS in each of their last five matches across all competitions, notably avoiding defeat in all of these games. They welcome a Wycombe side that has seen BTTS in three of their last five matches across all competitions, and that managed to beat Bolton 2-1 when the sides met earlier in the campaign. 

Bolton have scored 31 goals across their 17 home games in League One this season, only a handful of sides in the division have scored more goals at home than Bolton this season - one of which being Wycombe. Michael Duff’s side have only managed to win three of their 17 away matches in League One this term, so this is going to be an awkward assignment for the away side but one that should see goals at both ends.

This promises to be a lively cup tie, and one in which Wrexham can certainly be competitive, particularly given where it falls in Chelsea’s packed schedule. The Blues travelled to Villa Park in midweek and will head to Paris to face PSG in the Champions League shortly after this fixture, so we can expect significant rotation from Liam Rosenior.

Wrexham have already taken on Premier League opposition in the FA Cup this season, having faced Nottingham Forest in an earlier round. Phil Parkinson’s side found the net three times in that contest and also scored against Ipswich in the last round to set up this intriguing meeting.

The Dragons have scored 33 goals in 18 home league games this campaign (averaging 1.83 per game), which accounts for 61% of their total Championship goals this season. I expect them to field a strong XI here - it’s a massive occasion for the club and one that should see Parkinson name a formidable lineup.

Chelsea have shown flashes of quality under Rosenior, though defensive solidity has been harder to come by. The former Hull boss is still searching for greater control in matches, which helps explain why the Blues have managed just three clean sheets in 14 games since he took charge.

It’s become increasingly clear that Chelsea have a discipline problem, particularly in fixtures where the atmosphere is likely to be hostile. The youthful makeup of the squad means they’re often quick to dive into challenges and equally quick to lose their heads when appealing to the referee.

The FA Cup can sometimes offer a degree of leniency when it comes to cards, but Chelsea’s petulance still has a habit of bubbling to the surface. The Blues picked up two yellows in their 4-0 win over Hull in the previous round, proof that even in cup competitions, they remain vulnerable to cautions. Wrexham, for their part, managed to draw two bookings from Nottingham Forest during their clash in Wales earlier in the tournament.

In the Premier League this season, Chelsea have accumulated 67 yellow cards and seven reds across 29 matches - an average of 2.55 cards per game. I’d expect that average to hold here. Given that I don’t anticipate Chelsea having things all their own way, we could well see more of the indiscipline that’s become a trademark of this young Blues side.

Wrexham saw 15 match corners in their 3-3 draw with Nottingham Forest in an early round of the FA Cup, and also saw 13 corners in their 1-0 triumph over Ipswich to set up this clash. 

Wrexham managed eight corners in both of those cup ties, and welcome a Chelsea side that regularly utilises set pieces as an avenue to goal. Chelsea saw 11 match corners in their 4-0 win over Hull last time out, and saw exactly nine corners in their 5-1 win over Charlton in their first game in the FA Cup this season.

Chelsea are seeing 10.34 corners per game in the Premier League this term, a figure that drops slightly to 9.80 corners per game when looking at their away matches in the top flight. Wrexham are seeing 9.89 corners per game in the Championship this term, rising to exactly 10 per game when playing in front of their home fans.

Issa Kabore has plenty of talent, but needs to find somewhere to settle. He’s been at five different clubs over the last two seasons, spending time in Portugal, France, and in the Premier League with Luton prior to their relegation from the top flight. He’s been given a run in the side of late, and that should continue here with Kabore usually lining up as a right wing back.

Kabore has committed 16 fouls across his 18 starts in the Championship this term, working out to an average of 0.95 fouls committed per 90. Wrexham committed 10 fouls in their 3-3 draw with Nottingham Forest earlier in the campaign and can see them getting to double digits for fouls again here, given that Chelsea should dominate the ball and dictate proceedings for the majority of the encounter.

Kabore is expected to be up against Alejandro Garnacho, who put in one of his better displays in a Chelsea shirt last time out as Chelsea came away 4-1 winners over Aston Villa. Garnacho was fouled three times in that victory, and has drawn 19 fouls across his 13 appearances in the Premier League this season (1.73 per 90).

I expect this to be a very lively cup tie, and one that Wrexham will be able to be competitive in given where this tie falls in Chelsea’s current calendar. Chelsea travelled to Villa Park during the week, and will make the trip to Paris for their Champions League clash against PSG after this game so we can expect quite a bit of rotation from Liam Rosenior.

Wrexham have already taken on Premier League opposition in the FA Cup this season in the form of Nottingham Forest. Wrexham managed to score three goals in that clash, and also scored against Ipswich in the last round of the cup to set up this intriguing clash. 

Wrexham have scored 33 goals across their 18 home matches in the Championship this term (1.83 per game), with this tally accounting for 61% of the total goals that Wrexham have scored in the Championship this season. I think they’ll go fairly strong here, it’s a massive game for the club and one that should see Phil Parkinson put out a complete side. 

Chelsea have been impressive at times under Rosenior, but keeping clean sheets has not been one of their strengths. Rosenior is still trying to find a way for Chelsea to find control in games, which has led to the Blues only keeping three clean sheets across their 14 matches under his management.

It is obvious to most people that Chelsea have an issue when it comes to discipline, especially in matches where there is likely to be a lively atmosphere. The youthful nature of the squad makes them quick to jump into challenges, and lack restraint when complaining to the referee.

The FA Cup can sometimes be a dampener for cards, but Chelsea’s petulance should still be able to rise to the fore here. The Blues picked up two yellow cards in their 4-0 win over Hull in the last round of the FA Cup, showing how Chelsea are still vulnerable to cautions in the cup competitions. Wrexham managed to draw two cards from Forest on their trip to Wales earlier in the competition. 

Chelsea have collected 67 yellow cards and seven red cards across their 29 games in the Premier League this season, working out to an average of 2.55 cards per game. I’d expect that average to hold here as I don’t think Chelsea will have this game all their own way - leading to more of that ill-discipline that we’ve grown accustomed to seeing with this young Chelsea side. 

Newcastle are one of the strongest sides in the Premier League when it comes to winning corners, particularly when they play at St James’ Park. Eddie Howe’s side have utilised this avenue often since Howe arrived at the club with the delivery of Kieran Trippier lining up well with the aerial threats of Burn and Thiaw.

Newcastle are averaging 6.69 corners per game in the Premier League this season, which is the highest tally of any side in the division. This rises even further to 7.07 corners per game when playing at St James’ Park, showing how key an aspect it is to Newcastle’s overall game plan. Newcastle racked up five corners when Manchester City visited St James’ Park earlier in the season.

Manchester City are conceding 4.43 corners per game on the road in the Premier League this season, and I can see Guardiola choosing this game as an opportunity to rotate his side given that City have to play Real Madrid in the Champions League during the week having just dropped points in the title race at home to Nottingham Forest. City have conceded 4+ corners to Newcastle in each of the four head to head meetings between the sides this season. 

These two sides have already met four times this season, with three or more goals scored in three of those meetings. The most recent clash finished 2-1 to Manchester City at the Etihad, a game that produced exactly three goals and a total of 28 shots, half of which were on target.

Newcastle have seen three or more goals in each of their last five matches across all competitions, most recently claiming a 2-1 win over Manchester United at St James’ Park - despite playing the entire second half with ten men.

Across 15 home league games this season, Newcastle have been involved in 52 goals, averaging 3.46 per game. They're also expected to take this competition seriously, given it's one of the few trophies still within reach this term.

Manchester City may not share that same intensity. After dropping crucial points in the title race midweek and with a Champions League last-16 first leg against Real Madrid on the horizon, their focus could be elsewhere. Still, three of their last five matches across all competitions have also featured three or more goals.

These two sides will surely be getting sick of the sight of each other, as this will be their fourth meeting in 2026, and their fifth this season. Pep Guardiola has had the upper hand recently, as his Man City side have won each of the last three meetings. 

Newcastle find themselves in a rough patch of form, as they have lost five of their last seven league matches, but they were able to secure a 2-1 win against Man United midweek against the odds.

Jacob Ramsey was sent off in the first half, but Newcastle still managed to score twice after that setback. The midfielder will serve his suspension this weekend, while Sandro Tonali could also miss out - he was withdrawn late on due to cramps. 

Newcastle deserve some sympathy for the number of injuries they have had to contend with this season, as Bruno Guimaraes is also expected to miss out this weekend.

Man City’s winning streak came to an end midweek, but they still come into this clash on a ten-game unbeaten run, with eight wins in that stretch. They are looking a tough side to beat at the moment, which doesn’t bode well for Newcastle. 

With that being said, City’s card counts have been noticeably high in recent games, and they have landed this selection in six of their last eight matches. They failed to hit this mark against Salford in the previous round of the FA Cup, but there was a significant gulf in quality between the two sides. 

This selection has landed in all four head-to-head meetings between these sides this season, and there were seven yellows shown across their two EFL Cup meetings. That includes City picking up four yellow cards at St James’ Park. When these sides met on Tyneside in the league, City were shown three yellows.

Newcastle were also shown four yellow cards in that EFL Cup first leg at home, and Sam Barrott could be kept equally as busy this weekend. He has dished out 61 yellows and one red card from his 17 Premier League appearances this season

The referee will also have to keep his eye on Joelinton here, as the Brazilian doesn’t seem to like playing against Man City very much. In fact, he has been carded in each of his last four straight matches against Guardiola’s men - keeping that streak alive in the last head-to-head meeting despite only featuring from the bench. 

After coming on in the 60th minute, Joelinton racked up four fouls before eventually being booked in the 89th minute. He was shown a yellow card when these sides last met on Tyneside for getting into a scrap with Nico O’Reilly in the first half, but still managed to land this selection with exactly two infringements.

Joelinton is averaging 2.03 fouls per 90 across all competitions this season, one of the highest totals in the Newcastle squad, and he tends to take things up a gear at home, especially when playing against a big team. 

Joelinton should find duels against Bernardo Silva in midfield here, who also seems to have some bad blood with Newcastle. The Portuguese international has accrued five fouls in his last two meetings against Eddie Howe's side and was carded in both. In fact, he has committed a foul in five of his last six matches against Newcastle, picking up three yellow cards in that time, too. 

Silva is averaging 1.39 fouls per 90 for City this season, and has landed this selection in seven of his last ten matches. He likes to be aggressive in midfield, and should have plenty of defensive work to get through at St James’ Park here.