Andy Robson's Tips

Around a month ago the Rams looked like the team to beat this year but then they lost to the Seahawks, and Falcons. They followed that with a win over the Cardinals but then only just squeezed past a Panthers team last week, in a game they were expected to win with ease. With that in mind, I don’t want to back them on the spread, but I’m still bullish on their Super Bowl hopes and have full confidence they win here, even on the road.

They finished with one more win than the Bears this season but with three NFC West teams still in the playoffs, it shows the depth in their division. The Rams finished the regular season top of offensive DVOA, fourth in defensive DVOA and second in offensive EPA per play. This is a serious offense, with a defense who can hang with anybody in the NFL. They win this against a good and improving Bears team.

I loved the selection when the Bears drafted Luther Burden in the second round back in April’s NFL Draft and as the season has progressed he’s really stepped up and solidified his place in this Bears offense, and now looks like a potential superstar.

His line for this game stands at 38.5 receiving yards. I’m hammering the Over here. Firstly, I think we’re going to see the Bears play from behind, which means plenty of passing from Caleb Williams. Then there’s Burden’s recent performances show, he’s on form, and has smashed this line in four of his past five games.

One of the real developments in this Rams offense this season, aside from the arrival of Davante Adams, has been the emergence of Blake Corum, the second year running back. Kyren Williams is still the number one RB but the team like to mix things up and Corum has ascending into a 1B role, to Williams’ 1A. 

He’s had double digit carries in five of his past six games and the team trust him when the chips are down. He’s broken this alternate 30 rushing yard line eight times in his 11 appearances since the Week Eight bye week, and he’s averaged an impressive 5.1 yards per carry across the season.

The Rams offense continues to circle around Puke Nacua, who continues to be a volume monster. He’s had double digit targets in 11 games this season, including the past six games straight. Interestingly, last week, in their most important game of the season so far, he had season-high 18 targets from Matthew Stafford.

Last week he got 111 receiving yards, his seventh 100+ receiving yard game of the season. He’s broken this alternate line of 80+ in 11 games this season, and with their Super Bowl campaign on the line, they’ll continue to go back to the former BYU man.

The Seagulls knocked out Man United from the FA Cup at Old Trafford in midweek, holding on to a 2-1 victory. Brighton put up a solid display, too, registering 13 shots and four big chances worth 1.59 xG. They were able to resist an onslaught of pressure from the hosts in the second half to eventually come away with the win in normal time.

That result made it four games without losing for Fabian Hurzeler’s men, so they have every reason to approach this match with confidence. Since the start of November, Brighton have lost just three league games, which were against Liverpool, Arsenal and Aston Villa - three of the current top four. 

This upcoming matchup against Bournemouth promises to be a much easier one, given that the Cherries have won just one of their last 15 matches across all competitions.

While losing Antoine Semenyo is a significant blow for Andoni Iraola, his troops looked succinct in the final third last time out against Newcastle, and they scored three goals at St James’ Park. Bournemouth have scored 13 goals in their last six league matches, finding the back of the net against the likes of Arsenal and Chelsea.

However, their main weakness has been their defence. Bournemouth have conceded 29 goals from their 10 Premier League away matches this campaign, ranking them rock bottom for total goals conceded on the road. They have kept just one clean sheet in their last 13 matches across all competitions.

Based on that dreadful record, Brighton will be licking their lips at the prospect of hosting the Cherries at the Amex this weekend. The Seagulls were beaten 2-1 by Bournemouth in the reverse fixture when the sides met back in September, so will have their sights set on retribution. Yasin Ayari had a quiet afternoon in that game, but the Sweden international has been a key player for Brighton going forward this season. 

In fact, Ayari has registered more shots than any other Brighton player across all competitions this term. The 22-year-old is averaging 2.34 shots per 90, and has landed this selection in five of his last six starts. That includes tough matchups against the likes of Arsenal and Sunderland - he managed four shots at the Emirates, and five shots when the Black Cats visited the Amex.

Amine Adli filled the void left by Antoine Semenyo on the left wing against Newcastle, making his first start for Bournemouth since the start of December. The Moroccan made just the one foul in that match against the Magpies, but he definitely isn’t one to shy away from a duel - he contested a total of 12 duels at St James’ Park, registering three tackles. 

Adli has made 19 appearances across all competitions this season, but just five have been starts. The 25-year-old looks set for a much larger role in the coming weeks and will hope to make a real impact to establish himself as a regular starter. 

Adli is averaging an eye-catching 3.03 fouls per 90 across all competitions despite his limited minutes, and has registered multiple fouls in three of his five starts. Even last season, Adli had an average of 1.72 fouls per 90 for Bundesliga side Bayer Leverkusen, highlighting a real willingness to duel.