ABC Tips

England managed to cover this line on their own in seven of their eight qualifying matches, with the exception of a 1-0 win on the road over Andorra. That narrow victory saw England generate an xG of 4.00, suggesting that they should have covered this line in all eight of their qualifying games.

If you include friendlies, England have seen 2+ goals in each of their last seven matches across all competitions. They take on a Uruguay side that is tutored by Marcelo Bielsa, and most recently lost 5-1 to USA in a friendly, though they did receive a red card in the second half of that contest.

There tends to be quite a bit of flexibility in friendlies with both sides trying new things and giving players a final chance in their systems before selecting their squads for the World Cup. This should lead to a pretty open game, I’m surprised to see BTTS at 2.20 as well, which is worth taking if you are exploring other goals angles for this clash.

Palmer is one of a few England players that probably feel as though they need to show Thomas Tuchel a bit more. He hasn’t been at his best this season, and while I don’t think this jeopardises his chances of being on the plane - he has to show Tuchel something in this camp if he wants a more involved role, given the competition for his position.

Palmer has been injured throughout recent England camps, meaning that he only started one game during qualifying, though he did manage a shot on target in that clash against Andorra.

However, if we look at his record in the Premier League, it would suggest that Palmer shoots enough to give himself opportunities to find the target. He’s taken 45 shots across his 18 starts in the Premier League (2.84 per 90), with 19 of those efforts finding the target (1.20 per 90). 

Darwin Nunez is set to lead the line for Uruguay here and is a familiar face to fans of the Premier League, with Nunez becoming a bit of a marmite figure during his time at Liverpool.

Nunez hasn’t changed one bit from his time at Liverpool, he’s still really erratic and gets loads of shots away, which is why I’m willing to take this line despite England’s exceptionally strong defensive record during qualifying - though it should be noted that they weren’t really tested by any side during qualifying.

Nunez has taken 43 shots across his 14 starts in the Saudi Pro League this season (3.09 shots per 90), with this converting into just six goals. This was the exact issue with Nunez when he was in the Premier League, but it makes him a good option to back for at least three shots in this clash, with the nature of this game likely to suit his chaotic style. 

Manuel Ugarte may not be in favour at Manchester United, but he has been a key player for Uruguay in recent seasons, with 33 caps to his name since 2021. He’s just as aggressive for his national side as he is in the Premier League, and committed 26 fouls across his 14 starts during qualifying (1.85 per 90).

I’m particularly interested in his battle against the fit again Jude Bellingham, who has been called up to the squad and is rumoured to start after a period of time away with injury. Bellingham is incredibly strong when it comes to winning fouls, drawing 10 across his four starts during England’s qualifying campaign (2.54 per 90), which is just a small example of the threat that Bellingham can offer Ugarte in foul exchanges.

Furthermore, Elliot Anderson emerging as a key player in the midfield for England gives Ugarte an extra opportunity to commit fouls, with Anderson also being a very useful player when it comes to drawing them. Anderson is averaging 2.21 fouls won per 90 in the Premier League this season and should be able to match this when faced with Ugarte’s usual aggression and foul rate.