Andy Robson's Tips

Ekitike is averaging 1.11 shots on target per 90 this season, with 3.26 shots overall. Looking at his totals, he has recorded the exact same number of shots (44) and shots on target (15) as Salah, despite playing fewer minutes.

He is Liverpool’s highest scorer this season with eight goals. Focusing solely on his Champions League record, he has averaged 1.71 shots on target per 90 and has registered at least one shot on target in all four of his starts. That includes a tough match against Real Madrid, as well as away games at Galatasaray and Frankfurt, plus their home match in the 4-1 defeat to PSV.

Some other bookies are offering around 1.73 for this bet, so the boost to EVS (2.00) isn’t massively generous, but I still think it’s worthwhile. You’ll also be covered by Super Sub, and I’d assume Isak is his replacement unless they both start together.

Littler to Win

"Number one, outright winner. Well, he's the UK Open champion, World Matchplay champion, World Grand Prix champion, Grand Slam champion. He's changed this game forever. That story of from a 16-year-old to be world number one by the age of 18. I think our current world champion, our world number one will retain the World Championship.

I've just come back from Finland with all the best players in the world. And he does he stands out. He's intriguing. He does things his way. And for me, Luke Littler will win this year's world title."

Humphries to Reach SF

"Now, after he got beat at the Grand Slam of Darts, Luke Humphries said, "I will win the World Championship." And that's good enough for me, in a sense that he still feels confident, and he looked pretty chipper. He looked in good shape in Finland.

I was just watching his game, watching his demeanour, watching his preparation. So, part of the bet will be that Luke Humphries has to get to at least the semi-finals.

Noppert to Reach QF

"One of my favourite players, the guy who I beat in the 2017 BDO Lakeside Championship, Danny Noppert. Mr Consistency, I called him at the Grand Slam of Darts. And part of the bet is that he has to get to the quarter-finals. I like his section of the draw. He's not been great at Alexandra Palace. That's been my one concern.

But I think that has to change and will change because his consistency is just too good right now. And I like what Danny's been doing this year. He'll want to keep that momentum going throughout the World Championships."

I was surprised to see the goal expectancy quite so low here, especially given both teams’ recent results.

Starting with the away side, Huddersfield have scored and conceded in each of their last five League One matches, with 22 goals in those five matches, over four per match. They have conceded in eight straight league matches, and their xG data suggests that they have become more open and attacking recently.

Their seasonal expected goals data has them creating 1.5 xG and conceding 1.2 xG, but changing that sample to the last 10 matches sees them creating 2 xG and conceding 1.5 xG, an average of 3.5 xG in their matches, actual goals scored in those 10 matches equals 3.7, all way above the line needed here.

Northampton have seen their last six league matches have more than one goal as well. They do have lower goal expectancies than Huddersfield, but they are still very respectable numbers. They average 1.94 goals per game this season, a low average, but the xG is 2.4 over the same period. Again, looking at the last ten matches, there has been an improvement, 2.7 goals per game and 2.6 xG.

It seems to me that this price might be based on seasonal data rather than taking into account the rise in goals and chances for both teams more recently.

There are chances written all over this game, and I am expecting both teams to get in on the act here.

Starting with the visitors, their last two matches have been in cup competitions, but there have been 13 goals in those two matches. I am going to concentrate on league data here, but it is worth bearing in mind that they are in that rich vein of goals more recently, too.

In League Two, Salford average 1.33 goals per game and have conceded 1.39. However, this is lower than might be expected with their xG data suggesting that they should’ve scored over 1.8 goals per game, but also conceded over 1.5 goals per game.

This means that chances are being created and conceded to allow both teams to score twice, never mind once. Salford haven’t been converting their chances well enough in the league, but I hope that the muscle memory from the cup competitions will help this to kick in.

Fleetwood haven’t had that issue as badly. BTTS has landed in Fleetwood’s last nine matches in all competitions. They scored twice against Luton in the FA Cup in their impressive progression, and their averages for both goals for and against in league play are great for a BTTS bet, 1.5 for and 1.44 against. This matches up really well with their xG data, 1.53 xG for and 1.57 xG against, so there are lots of indicators for BTTS here.

Spurs will fancy their chances of making it back-to-back wins, given that Slavia Prague are still yet to record a win in the Champions League this season, languishing down in 31st place. Worryingly, the Czech side have failed to score in any of their last four European outings, highlighting their struggles in the final third. 

Slavia Prague have already faced a side from North London in the Champions League this term, and it won’t bring back fond memories. They were easily defeated by Arsenal, who restricted the hosts to just nine shots worth 0.47 xG. 

The Red and Whites did manage to take a point from their last away match in Europe against Atalanta, but prior to that were beaten 3-0 by Inter Milan. The hosts racked up 21 shots and nine big chances worth 3.99 xG, while the visitors mustered up just three shots worth 0.11 xG in return. 

While Liverpool have struggled to keep clean sheets this season, scoring goals at the other end of the park has not been an issue. With that in mind, I’m keen to back both teams to get on the scoresheet at the San Siro on Tuesday night.

Three of Liverpool’s five Champions League matches this season have seen both teams make their mark, with each of those three contests breaking the over 4.5 goal barrier. It’s also worth noting that five of the Reds’ eight Premier League road matches this season have seen each team oblige, the most recent of which was a thrilling 3-3 draw with Leeds at the weekend.

As for the hosts, they failed to silence Champions League newcomers Kairat Almaty at the San Siro last month, while the likes of Sassuolo and Cremonese have also netted consolation strikes at this venue in relatively recent times. On top of all that, both teams scored during Inter’s 2-1 defeat away at Atletico Madrid on matchday five.

Spurs will fancy their chances of making it back-to-back wins, given that Slavia Prague are still yet to record a win in the Champions League this season, languishing down in 31st place. Worryingly, the Czech side have failed to score in any of their last four European outings, highlighting their struggles in the final third. 

Slavia Prague have already faced a side from North London in the Champions League this term, and it won’t bring back fond memories. They were easily defeated by Arsenal, who restricted the hosts to just nine shots worth 0.47 xG. 

The Red and Whites did manage to take a point from their last away match in Europe against Atalanta, but prior to that were beaten 3-0 by Inter Milan. The hosts racked up 21 shots and nine big chances worth 3.99 xG, while the visitors mustered up just three shots worth 0.11 xG in return. 

Slavia Prague have accrued an eye-catching 45 fouls across their last two Champions League matches. They committed 21 infringements against Athletic Club last time out, and the Spanish side committed 22 fouls in return, in what was an incredibly aggressive match. The visitors were shown three cards in that game, but it really could have been more. 

It was a similar story against Arsenal in the previous round, as the Czech side accumulated 24 fouls. The Premier League side accrued just 12 infringements themselves, but that earned them four yellow cards - that was the most cards they had picked up in a single game since their round one Premier League match against Man United. 

Slavia Prague have drawn at least two cards in all five of their European outings this season, highlighting how they have been a difficult side to face, despite their lack of points.

However, the Czech side have been much less intimidating on their travels, and Inter Milan put them to the sword when they faced off at the San Siro. The Italian giants racked up 21 shots and nine big chances worth 3.99 xG in round two, easing to a 3-0 win. Lautaro Martinez bagged himself a brace from four shots, while his strike partner, Marcus Thuram, also had five efforts, hitting the target with one of those. Chances were freely available for Inter, and it was a similar story when Atalanta faced Slavia Prague. 

La Dea managed 22 shots and five big chances, but were somehow unable to breach the defences of Jakub Markovic, who made five saves. Richarlison comes into this clash in great form, having scored in four of his last five starts, and looks well poised to capitalise on any defensive weaknesses.

Cristian Romero has been amongst the goals recently, as his brace at St James’ Park helped Spurs steal a point against Newcastle. It was an eventful game for the centre back, who got the last laugh in his personal feud with Bruno Guimaraes. Romero didn’t let his first half yellow card stop him from flying into challenges, as he was successful in all three of his tackles, contesting a total of 11 duels. 

Romero is averaging 1.17 fouls per 90 this season, and has landed this selection in each of his last 10 straight starts across all competitions. In that time, he has also been shown four yellow cards, highlighting just how aggressive his defensive style is. Both Spurs’ centre backs are tasked with being strong in their duels to try and sustain pressure over their opponents - because of that, Romero can sometimes find himself drawn out of position, and forced into reckless challenges.

Ederson plays as one of two central midfielders in Atalanta’s 3-4-3 system, which means he has to cover a lot of ground, and is often the player that has to make tactical fouls to protect the back three, who can often be vulnerable in transition when Atalanta lose the ball in dangerous areas.

Ederson has committed 11 fouls across his 10 appearances in Serie A this term (1.38 per 90) and maintains an average of 2.03 fouls committed per 90 in the Champions League. This increase tells us that the superior quality of the Champions League brings out an even higher level of aggression from him.

His potential opponents offer real promise when looking for Ederson to commit a foul here. Moises Caicedo should return to the Chelsea starting lineup after being absent for the last two matches against Bournemouth and Leeds due to suspension. 

Caicedo and Enzo Fernandez combine to win 3.72 fouls per 90 in the Champions League and will cause Atalanta problems, especially with the overloads Chelsea can create in midfield by using one of their full backs. 

Ederson could also face up against Cole Palmer later in the contest, as he may not be ready to start two games in a row after completing 60 minutes against Bournemouth last time out on his return to fitness. Palmer was Chelsea’s most fouled player across all competitions last season, and can offer a threat to Ederson if he is introduced later on in the game.

Enzo Fernandez has won 11 fouls across his five appearances in the Champions League this term (2.82 per 90), winning at least one foul in each of those games, with four of the fixtures seeing him win 2+ fouls.

Fernandez has struggled a little over the last week in Chelsea’s matches against Leeds and Bournemouth. I sometimes feel as though he doesn’t offer enough to Chelsea if he doesn’t have Moises Caicedo next to him, which is a bit of an issue as you’d like a player of Fernandez’s value and quality to be able to control games even when Caicedo is out of the side.

Fernandez has also been pretty strong when it comes to winning fouls in the Premier League. He’s been hauled down 15 times across his 14 Premier League appearances, drawing at least one foul in eight of those matches. 

His main midfield opponent here will be Ederson, offering a decent angle for two legs of our bet builder to land in one action - alongside backing the Brazilian to commit a foul. I think this matchup could warrant testing higher lines for Fernandez to win fouls, he’s priced at 3.20 to win 2+ fouls.

My opinion of Robert Sanchez has shifted over recent months when watching Chelsea. He’s still got a mistake in him, but there is no denying that he is one of the better shot-stoppers in the Premier League, and Chelsea often lean on him to get them out of jail when they’re performing poorly.

This was the case in their 0-0 draw against Bournemouth last time out, in which Sanchez was forced into making five saves. He was awarded Player of the Match for his performance and walked away with an xG prevented of 0.76, as well as his seventh clean sheet in the Premier League this term. Sanchez has been forced into making 30 saves across his 15 Premier League appearances this term.

In the Champions League, Sanchez has been called to action nine times across his four appearances in the competition (2.25 per game). Atalanta have drawn 2+ saves from the opposition keeper in three of their five matches in the Champions League this season, with two of those, notably, being at home.

This is Chelsea’s most important remaining game of the league phase in the Champions League, with the Blues facing off against a side that have won three of their five matches and sit level on points with them, heading into the final few fixtures.

Chelsea face Pafos at home next, a side you would expect them to beat comfortably, before travelling to Napoli on the final matchday, which may be an awkward task - but as it stands, Antonio Conte’s side aren’t a rival to finish in the top eight. 

Chelsea have been pretty bright in the final third in the Champions League so far, with an average of 5.20 shots on target per game in the competition. Only five sides have scored more goals than Chelsea in the league phase of the Champions League, and Enzo Maresca is likely to go for the win here, knowing that it could secure Chelsea a spot in the top eight.

Chelsea are also averaging 5.10 shots on target per game in the Premier League this term, with this tally only bettered by Manchester City and Arsenal.

This shows that the Blues can create chances with ease, but when watching Chelsea, it’s clear to see that they still have an issue with being clinical - this should allow for the shot on target count to stack up as Chelsea are unlikely to draw blood from their first few strikes.

Just when it looked like Liverpool were going to get some respite, and secure a much-needed three points in the Premier League, Ao Tanaka equalised for Leeds in the 96th minute, condemning the Reds to their second successive draw. Zooming out, the situation is looking bleak for Arne Slot’s men, with just four wins from their last 15 matches across all competitions dating back to September. 

In that stretch, Liverpool have lost nine matches, meaning they currently sit 9th in the Premier League standings, in what has been a dreadful title defence so far. They have been left wanting at the back - with 24 goals conceded, only the Premier League bottom five have shipped more goals, which is a serious issue to address. 

Meanwhile, Inter Milan are battling near the top of the Serie A standings, and come into this clash in a rich vein of form.

While they were beaten 2-1 by Atletico Madrid on their last European outing, Inter Milan still had plenty of chances. The Nerazzurri racked up 17 shots and three big chances at the Metropolitano, which amounted to 1.42 xG. Cristian Chivu’s men were denied by some key saves from Juan Musso, who was a standout performer on the night. 

Facing Diego Simeone’s men in Madrid is never an easy matchup, but Inter Milan looked strong in the final third, which has been a theme all season. Over 2.5 goals has landed in four of their five European games this season, as they have scored 12 goals in total.

Liverpool’s results in the Champions League have been inconsistent, but they are averaging 3.6 goals per game. The Reds were picked apart by PSV at Anfield last time out, with that game finishing 4-1 to the Dutch side.

Lautaro Martinez should be licking his lips at the prospect of facing this Liverpool backline. The Argentine already has four Champions League goals to his name after four appearances - the only team he failed to score against was Atletico Madrid, but even then, he registered three shots, hitting the target once. 

Martinez has been a key reason for Inter’s success this season, and he is averaging 4.34 shots per 90 in all competitions - no Inter Milan player has taken more shots than the captain this campaign. 

The 28-year-old has been a real leader from the front, and comes into this clash in excellent form. After scoring 22 goals in all competitions last season, Martinez already has 11 goals to his name after just 18 appearances this term, with three of those goals coming in his last two starts alone.

Martinez’s contributions don’t stop there, and the centre forward has added more than just goals. He is the one who leads the press for Inter Milan, and they have been an intense side to face this season. Martinez is averaging 1.86 fouls per 90 in all competitions, as he tends to drop into deeper areas at times to give opposing midfielders a tough time on the ball. 

Because of that, he should find duels with Ryan Gravenberch, who has remained a consistent figure in Liverpool’s midfield, playing the full 90 in each of the last eight games straight. He has landed this selection in seven of those matches, and is averaging 1.47 fouls drawn per 90 for the season in total. This bet has landed in all four of his starts in the Champions League, as he was fouled twice against both PSV and Real Madrid.

Ross Smith to Reach R4

"Ross Smith has a tricky opening match against Sweden’s Andreas Harrysson - an experienced player who’s producing some of the best darts of his career, especially in the Modus Super Series. It won’t be easy, but I do fancy Ross to come through that.

In round two, he’d likely be favourite against France’s Thibault Tricole, and should have too much quality. To reach round four, Ross may face Dave Chisnall. Dave is a little out of form right now, so it could instead be Fallon Sherrock or Ricardo Pietreczko that Smith faces, the latter is talking a good game at the moment. Even so, I think Ross Smith reaching round four is a strong first leg of the treble."

Martin Schindler to Reach R4

"My NAP is Martin Schindler, I think he will finally having a strong TV tournament. If he brings his European Tour form, he should do well. He has a tricky opener against Steven Burton - a good player - but if Schindler wants to establish himself among the elite, he should come through that.

That would likely set up a round-two match with Keane Barry, who faces Tim Pusey from Australia in his opener. Barry is talented, but I think Schindler wins that one too. In round three, Martin may be the underdog against either Brendan Dolan or Ryan Searle, who throws the heaviest darts on the circuit. Schindler has the game to beat both of these players, and I think taking the German to reach round four is a solid second leg of the treble."

Jermaine Wattimena to Reach R3

"The final piece is Jermaine Wattimena, who’s playing terrific darts right now. His opening match is tough, he faces German player Dominik Gruellich, who came through Q School last year and has long been on my radar. Still, with Jermaine’s current form, I strongly fancy him to get through it.

That would likely set up a round-two match against Scott Williams, a former semi-finalist at Ally Pally two years ago. Williams has a dangerous opener himself against Paulo Nebrida from the Asian Tour, but assuming Scott makes it through, I still like Jermaine’s chances of reaching round three."