ABC Tips

Olowu was on target for Salford last week as they took a narrow advantage into the second leg. The big centre-half netted his sixth goal of the campaign, and had two shots in the process.

He also had four in their final league game against Crawley, and has had at least one in each of his last five. Across the season he’s averaged 1.08 per 90 minutes, which is very decent going for a defender.

He’s their main target from corners and free-kicks, he’s incredibly athletic with a mammoth leap. He’s also got a really sharp turn of pace, which allows him to steal into goal scoring positions.

Another key factor with this bet is corners. Salford really up the ante in terms of their numbers when playing at home. They’ve averaged 4.48 away, but at home that jumps to a very hefty 6.65.

Salford have excellent set piece deliveries available too, especially with the wonderful left-foot of Luke Garbutt.

We just need him to get his head on something, and we have a winner.

This should be a fiery affair. These two have taken every chance to kick the living daylights out of each other this season. There’s been 20 yellow cards and one red across their three meetings, with this selection landing in two of the three.

The only letdown to that was the first leg, as Chesterfield received one card. However, with County drawing 2.70 on average at home and The Spireites chasing, that shouldn’t be an issue.

Of course, this is a high stakes game. Only put more on the edge by the man in the middle - Thomas Parsons.

He may be a name unfamiliar to many, but he’s a very card happy referee. He’s dished out 33 yellows and two reds in nine League Two games this season. If you argue with him, he books you. He’s not a fan of communicating with the players, and would sooner brandish a card than explain his decision. 

He refereed Chesterfield earlier in the season when they drew 3-3 with Accrington, he dished out eight cards that day.

We're on a fantastic run with our Friday Evening Doubles. Each of the last FIVE have won:

2.0 ✅
2.3 ✅
2.15 ✅
2.25 ✅
2.25 ✅

Find out what we've picked out for Aston Villa v Liverpool on Friday evening by clicking the link below as we look to make it SIX winners in a row 👇

McGinn may line up on the right hand side of Villa’s trio behind Watkins, but he moves all over the pitch and is incredibly strong when it comes to winning fouls.

His movement is part of Villa’s wider rotations in forward areas which have contributed to Villa drawing more fouls than any other side in the Premier League this season.

McGinn has won 48 fouls across his 27 starts in the Premier League this season (2.09 per 90), and has been fouled in each of his last five Premier League appearances, drawing 2+ fouls in three of these games - including each of his last two matches.

Mac Allister has committed a foul in each of his last four Premier League appearances, committing 2+ fouls in three of these games and committing five fouls in Liverpool’s 1-1 draw with Chelsea last time out.

He’s committed 33 fouls across the season as a whole (1.20 per 90), but Villa are the perfect side to force a rise in this metric as the most fouled side in the league this season. Mac Allister committed a foul when these sides met earlier in the season, and will face up against the likes of McGinn, Rogers and Tielemans:

McGinn - 2.09 fouls won p/90 (1.06 for 1+ foul won)
Tielemans - 2.00 fouls won p/90 (1.18 for 1+ foul won) 
Rogers - 1.38 fouls won p/90 (1.16 for 1+ foul won) 

BTTS has landed in each of the last six head to head meetings between these sides at Villa Park in the Premier League, including the most recent meeting between the sides at the stadium which ended 2-2.

Liverpool have seen BTTS in each of their last four matches in the Premier League, and have only managed to keep two clean sheets in their last 10 matches across all competitions.

Liverpool’s 18 away matches in the Premier League have produced 56 goals (3.11 per game). Arne Slot’s side have conceded more goals on the road than any other side in the top half of the Premier League (29).

Aston Villa have only kept one clean sheet across their last five matches, and conceded twice against Burnley last time out as they were held to a 2-2 draw on the road by the already relegated side.

Ollie Watkins has improved as the season has unfolded, netting in each of his last two matches ahead of this clash.

11 of Watkins’ 17 goals across all competitions have come since the turn of the year, and he’s got his tally up to 12 in the Premier League - making him Villa’s top scorer.

Watkins is averaging 1.04 shots on target per 90 in the Premier League this season, from a wider shot average of 2.46 shots per 90.

Ryan Gravenberch is a player I’ve come back to all season to win fouls and rarely lets me down. He was fouled twice when these sides met earlier in the season, with Villa committing 11 fouls overall in that game.

Gravenberch has won 39 fouls across his 32 starts in the Premier League this season (1.23 per 90).

Gravenberch has been fouled in three of his last five Premier League matches, drawing 2+ fouls in one of these games. 

Gravenberch is likely to face up against a combination of Tielemans (1.28 fouls per 90), Rogers (1.27 fouls per 90) and Barkley (1.00 fouls per 90), with the trio combining for an average of 3.55 fouls per 90 in the Premier League this season.

There were 14 match corners when these sides last faced off at Villa Park, with high corner counts being a staple in the majority of Premier League matches this season. 

Liverpool have conceded 18 goals from set pieces in the Premier League this season, more than any other side in the division. 

Aston Villa have seen 360 match corners in the Premier League this season (10.00 per game), while Liverpool have seen 10 more corners than Unai Emery’s side (10.28 per game). 

Aston Villa’s match corner average rises slightly when at home to 10.33 corners per game, and it’s likely a route they’ll want to take advantage of given Liverpool’s weakness from these situations.

This is a straight shootout for the title, Celtic must win to claim the trophy while a point will be enough for Hearts.

Celtic have seen BTTS in each of their last five matches, notably still managing to win all five of these games.

Hearts have seen BTTS in four of their last five matches, remaining unbeaten during this period.

Each of the last three head to head meetings between the sides has seen BTTS.

Motherwell have scored in four of their last five matches, despite only managing to win one of these games.

Motherwell have scored 26 goals across their 18 away games in the Scottish Premiership this season.

Only Falkirk (57) have conceded more goals in the Championship group than Hibernian (43) this season.

Motherwell are protecting a spot in Europe next season, with Hibernian sitting just one point behind their opponents here.

This is a straight shootout to be given the chance to avoid relegation through the playoff fixture. 

Heidenheim, Wolfsburg and St Pauli are all locked on 26 points, and goal difference could come into the picture with Wolfsburg having a GD of -26 compared to the -29 of both Heidenheim and St Pauli.

St Pauli have seen BTTS in each of their last two matches, losing both of these games.

Each of the last two head to head meetings between the sides has seen BTTS.

Only Heidenheim (1) have kept fewer clean sheets than Wolfsburg (2) in the Bundesliga this season.

Chelsea have scored in each of their last three games, a turnaround from going three games without a goal.

Chelsea have scored in three of the last five head to head meetings between these sides.

Chelsea’s entire season relies on success in the FA Cup, they should be fully rested and up for it - notably having a few days extra rest compared to City.

City have failed to win either of their last two FA Cup finals, losing to Manchester United and Crystal Palace in these games.

What a game this is set to be. Both sides need three points - Frankfurt need a win and for Freiburg to slip up; and they do have a tough test against Leipzig, to then grab a Conference League place.

Stuttgart know that a win guarantees them a place in the Champions League, regardless of what goes on around them, unless Hoffenheim were to somehow also swing a five goal deficit in their favour.

These two rank in the top three for average match goals, with Frankfurt producing a staggering 3.70 per game and Stuttgart averaging 3.52 per match. Only Bayern can top them. Bayern are also the only side to have scored more goals than Stuttgart.

Frankfurt games have landed for over 2.5 backers in 67% of outings, with BTTS landing in 73%. For Stuttgart, those numbersare 73% and 61%.

Data is strong, the situation is even stronger. Goals should flow.

The situation is king here. This is a straight shootout for relegation. The loser here will be relegated to the Bundesliga.2, and if they draw, they could both go down as Heidenheim could nip in above them.

The loser will still have to take part in the relegation play-off, but that at least gives them a chance of getting out.

So, both need a result, and if we are in a situation where Heidenheim are winning, then both need to go all out for a win. The game could be poised very finely at numerous times.

As for the stats, they look strong, especially on the Wolfsburg side of things.

Wolfsburg games have averaged 3.33 goals and a hefty 64% have seen over 2.5 goals with 73% seeing BTTS.

St Pauli aren’t as entertaining with an average of 2.58 and hit rates of 55% in both over 2.5 and BTTS categories, but the situation should be enough to guarantee some goals.

This selection also landed in the reverse fixture.

Despite being sixth, Leverkusen still have a chance to get into the Champions League. They’ve got a better goal difference than Stuttgart and Hoffenheim, who sit above them, so a loss for those two and a win for Leverkusen would see them finish fourth. It’s a big ask, but it’s possible.

Hamburg are on the beach after a successful return to the Bundesliga after numerous failures at late stages in recent years.

Leverkusen have netted 37 times in their 16 home matches this season and possess plenty of firepower in forward areas, including 16 goal Patrick Schick, who is the third top scorer in the Bundesliga this season.

Hamburg have shipped 53 goals in the Bundesliga this season, and 31 of them have come on the road where they’ve managed just three wins this season; it’s been their excellent home form that’s given them a steady place in the table.

The situation is the key angle again here. Hoffenheim need a win to guarantee themselves Champions League football, so there’s no chance of them sitting back, which isn’t something they tend to do anyway.

On the flip side, Gladbach have absolutely nothing to play for. Their season is effectively over. They can finish a few places higher or lower than where they are, but there’s not much motivation.

As for the numbers, Hoffenheim’s attacking output has been excellent all season. They’ve scored 65 goals in 33 Bundesliga matches.

Their away form has also been superb, with the third-best away record in the league. 

Given the stakes for Hoffenheim and the lack of pressure on Gladbach, it’s a good set up for goals from the away side.

Asslani and Kramaric have also formed a formidable partnership, producing 24 goals and 13 assists between them in what has been a really strong season for Hoffenheim.

Heidenheim simply have to win if they want to give themselves a chance of staying in the Bundesliga. They’re level on points with Wolfsburg and St Pauli, who play each other, so there’s a huge opportunity here if that game ends level.

Even if there is a winner in that match, Heidenheim could still climb above one of them on goal difference. They’d need to swing a few goals, but it’s definitely possible, especially if neither side runs away with victory in the other crunch match.

Heidenheim matches have averaged a huge 3.36 goals per game this season, and 70% of their Bundesliga matches have seen over 2.5 goals land.

Mainz may not have loads to play for, but their games have still been entertaining. Their matches average 2.88 goals, while 55% have gone over the 2.5 line.

This selection also landed in the reverse fixture.

Joao Pedro is Chelsea’s best chance of winning this final, he’s probably the only Chelsea player that has lived up to expectations this season - and likely exceeded them, having netted 23 goals across all competitions.

One of Joao Pedro’s main struggles in the first half of the campaign was not taking enough shots. His shot volume has improved since the turn of the year, with his average across the Premier League as a whole sitting at 0.98 shots on target per 90 from a wider shot average of 2.47 shots per 90.

Joao Pedro had three shots in the most recent meeting between the sides, with Chelsea losing that game 3-0, and has scored two goals across his two starts in the FA Cup this term, taking five shots across those games (2.43 per 90).

Enzo Fernandez missed the most recent meeting between the sides due to being sidelined by Liam Rosenior as the former Chelsea boss attempted to instil some discipline in the side, with this move spectacularly backfiring as Chelsea slumped to a 3-0 defeat against City and desperately missed the presence of Fernandez.

The Argentine scored the equaliser the last time he featured against Manchester City, notably contesting 13 duels in that game. He’s won 42 fouls across his 33 starts in the Premier League this season (1.29 per 90), and was notably hauled down four times in Chelsea’s slim triumph over Leeds in the semi-final of the competition. 

Fernandez operates in more advanced areas of the pitch these days, so he’s likely to be faced up by Bernardo Silva (1.17 fouls per 90) and Nico Gonzalez (1.77 fouls per 90). Rodri could also feature in that deeper midfield role for City, but he is a slight doubt for the final after missing the last few games with injury.

The market is quite heavily leaning towards City here, but I think Chelsea will be able to make a decent fight of this. Winning the FA Cup is the only remaining avenue for Chelsea to make this a successful season, with their league campaign collapsing over recent weeks.

It’s also important for the Blues as winning the FA Cup will guarantee them a spot in Europe next season, which is something that they could miss out on entirely if they continue to plummet down the Premier League table in a tight field as we approach the end of the season. 

Manchester City have also struggled in recent cup finals, losing each of their last two FA Cup finals against Manchester United and Crystal Palace. Pep Guardiola’s side failed to keep a clean sheet in the semi-final against Southampton and have still struggled a little with limiting sides in transition.

Chelsea tend to raise their level for this kind of game, and I think we’ll see the same from the Blues here. They’ve scored in each of their last three matches, which is a significant turnaround from failing to score in the previous three matches - and their performance at Anfield last time out should give them real confidence here.

Chelsea don’t have many issues at all when it comes to creating chances, but they are far from the most clinical side in the world. This has been an issue at Chelsea for the last few seasons, and is another unwanted comparison to Brighton in that they clearly require more elite finishers in the side to make the most of their chance creation.

Chelsea drew three saves from Gianluigi Donnarumma in the most recent meeting between the sides, managing 12 shots despite being outclassed for most of the encounter as Guardiola’s side registered a 3-0 victory at Stamford Bridge. Chelsea also managed to draw two saves from Donnarumma when the sides met at the Etihad in a contest that finished 1-1. 

Donnarumma is averaging 2.30 saves per 90 in the Premier League this season with a save percentage of 73.1%. Chelsea have managed to test him at least twice in both of the league meetings between the sides this season, and have the quality to test him on at least two occasions again in this crucial game for the club.

Only Joao Pedro (23) has scored more goals for Chelsea across all competitions than Enzo Fernandez (15), so to get 2.10 for the Chelsea midfielder to have just one shot on target here is a really appealing price.

Enzo Fernandez has been moved from his deeper role to a box crashing midfielder which has aided the Argentine in registering his best ever goal tally in a Chelsea shirt. He scored in the semi-final of the FA Cup as Chelsea edged past Leeds thanks to his strike, one of two goals he's scored across his three starts in the competition.

Fernandez is averaging 0.92 shots on target per 90 in the Premier League this season, and scored against Manchester City when the sides clashed at the Etihad earlier in the campaign - managing two shots on target from three shots overall in that game.

West Ham’s Mateus Fernandes is drawing an average of 1.52 fouls per game in the Premier League this season, however, that figure increases when playing away from home. Fernandes has been fouled on multiple occasions in 7 of his last 12 Premier League outings away from the London Stadium, drawing a combined total of 7 fouls across the Hammers’ last 2 road matches.

Fernandes is likely to find himself in midfield duels with the likes of Bruno Guimaraes, Joelinton, and Sandro Tonali, all of whom are regular offenders. The Newcastle trio committed a combined total of 7 fouls between them against Nottingham Forest last Sunday.

It's also worth noting that Fernandes was fouled twice in this season's reverse fixture.