ABC Tips

Union Berlin v Wolfsburg 

We’re heading over to the Bundesliga for the first stop of our train, with the focus firmly on the relegation battle. Wolfsburg are in big trouble, they enter this weekend seven points from safety with only five games of the season remaining - and they have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 22 matches across all competitions.

The initial league meeting between these sides produced four goals as Wolfsburg ran out 3-1 winners over Union Berlin. That win is one of only three victories that Wolfsburg have managed since early December in the Bundesliga, and they were pretty fortunate to collect all three points on that occasion with Union Berlin posting an xG of 1.92 from 21 shots.

No side has conceded more goals on the road in the Bundesliga this season than Wolfsburg (34 - 2.42 per game), so there is a chance that Union Berlin can deepen the misery of the away side and cover this line on their own. Wolfsburg have still carried a decent scoring power themselves across these matches, netting 18 goals.

Union Berlin’s 14 home games in the Bundesliga have produced 41 goals (2.92 per game), they’ve only won four of these matches - so Wolfsburg have to see this as a must win game for the situation they find themselves in.

Werder Bremen v Hamburg 

The other notable battle at the bottom of the Bundesliga this week is between Werder Bremen and Hamburg. The home side sit just three points above the drop zone, and have seen 40 goals across their 14 home games in the Bundesliga this term (2.85 per game). 

The initial league meeting between these sides produced five goals as Hamburg came away 3-2 winners over Werder Bremen at home. That clash produced a combined xG of 2.06 from 22 match shots in total - and I can see both sides contributing to the goal count again here. 

Hamburg aren’t in as much trouble as Werder Bremen, but still are in a precarious position with only six points keeping them from the drop zone. A victory for the home side here would drag Hamburg right back into the heart of the relegation battle, offering both sides plenty of motivation to push on for goals and produce a high scoring game.

Furthermore, Hamburg have conceded 27 goals across their 14 away games in the Bundesliga this season (1.92 per game), winning just two of these games - so Werder Bremen should be encouraged to push on and collect all three points in this relegation six pointer which should produce at least two match goals.

Last week's BTTS & No Draw Boosted Double won @ 6.5 ✅

Southampton's BTTS record this season is really strong, they've seen both teams score in 29 of their 42 league matches. They now travel to Swansea to play a side that are much stronger at home - they sit 7th in the home Championship table, but 19th in the away. That aspect makes me think this could be a perfect pick for this bet.

Southampton are on an insane run going 18 games unbeaten in all competitions, they've also scored in all of those games so I'm expecting them to net at least a couple against a Swansea team that have conceded 10 across their last five.

Swansea should be able to cause Southampton issues too though, despite their amazing run they have only managed to keep 11 clean sheets out of 42 games this season. Swansea (and Vipotnik) are also going through a decent patch of scoring, they put three past Sheffield Utd, two past Middlesbrough and one past Leicester recently, with the striker netting four of those goals.

Last week's BTTS & No Draw Boosted Double won @ 6.5 ✅

Notts County v Barnet should be a bit of a shootout with where both teams sit in the table - a draw does none of them any good. Notts County are still in with a great chance of landing an automatic promotion spot, whilst Barnet are still hoping to make the play-offs.

Notts County are in a patch of shaky form, they've only taken 6 points from a possible 15 after being battered by promotion rivals Cambridge, and now need a win to get back into the automatic promotion positions. Across their last five games there's been 16 goals (3.20 per match), and they've been coming at both ends - 6 scored and 10 conceded. Although they failed to score against Cambridge, I can't see them blanking again here, they've scored the second-most goals in the division (1.65 goals per game) and face a Barnet side that have only kept one clean sheet in their last eight.

Barnet's games recently have been goal-fests - 21 goals across the last five matches (4.20 goals per game). They've also won four of those five games too.

Brentford are on the brink of a historic season, and can add a West London derby win to their 2025/26 memories at an odds-against price.

The Bees have lost just three of their 16 home league outings so far this term, registering a +9 goal difference across those games. Fulham have the 4th-worst away record in the division and have registered less than one point per game in their 16 league away trips.

Four consecutive draws has stagnated Keith Andrews' men's European charge, but they've consistently looked dangerous at home, particularly going forward. Across their last six home league games, they're averaging 2.26 expected goals (xG) for per game. They've posted at least 1.51 xG for in all of those and accumulated a total above 2.55 in three of those six games.

That kind of firepower should give them the upper hand against a lacklustre away side, even though it is a short trip for the Cottagers. Their four away wins this term have come at Tottenham, Burnley, West Ham and Sunderland - three of the current bottom four. This is a much tougher test.

Team motivation is ruling the market at this stage of the season, but I'd argue there's still enough to like about 2.25 on Barrow to get the better of Walsall.

Barrow gave themselves a fighting chance of avoiding the drop to non-league with an impressive 3-2 over play-off chasing Oldham on Tuesday night. Though they were winless in three before that game, it was a tough run of fixtures that they competed admirably in - drawing 0-0 at MK Dons (2nd), losing 1-0 at home to Chesterfield (7th) and losing 3-2 at in-form Barnet (9th).

Walsall have nothing to play for, 10 points off 7th with three to play - out of road. Interim manager Darren Byfield was initially putting together a case to get the job beyond the end of the season, but a 4-0 loss at home to Cheltenham (18th) last weekend derailed that. It was a limp display that saw them register just two shots in a second half mauling. They're now four without a win and have conceded two goals or more in each of their last three.

Barrow actually won the reverse fixture 2-1 in October, when both teams' seasons looked a lot more positive.

Swindon still have a sniff of automatic promotion with three to play in League Two.

Ian Holloway's Robins have two home games in their final trio and sit three points off of 3rd-place. Accrington have put together another really impressive season under John Doolan, they've got their feet up in 16th and have lost three in a row - one eye on the sun lounger.

They've actually only taken five points from their last 12 league games - 0.42 points per game in that run. Accy have scored less than a goal a game on the road in the league this season.

Swindon cannot afford to take their foot off the gas either, they're not yet assured of a place in the play-offs and can't afford to jeopardise that by missing out in this encounter. Their final two fixtures are significantly more challenging - Grimsby (8th) and Chesterfield (7th) - compared to cuddly out-of-form Stanley.

28 of 41 Barnsley league games this season have seen BTTS land, the highest % of any side in the league. Bradford rank 8th for that measure.

For away game BTTS %, Bradford rank joint-4th in the league, so it helps that this game is at Oakwell, too. The Bantams have scored in 81% of their league games since returning to the third tier.

The reverse fixture was a 2-2 draw, with this bet landing in the 24th minute. The game produced a total xG of 3.82.

We're possibly getting some extra juice on the price here, because Barnsley haven't scored in either of their last two home games. But that's not to say they didn't threaten - posting xG tallies of 0.75 and 0.57 in those outings.

Bradford have conceded in 17 of their 21 league away games this season, and they let one in against Stevenage last time out. Stevenage have the 5th-lowest goals for column in League One this term. Barnsley are 7th in that regard.

For this squad of Leicester players to be where they are, five points from safety with four games to play, points towards one of the most toxic dressing rooms around.

Even if you gave them back the six points they were deducted, they'd only be one point above the relegation zone. Having been one of the pre-season favourites to make an immediate return to the Premier League.

Portsmouth have hit form just at the right time, and Fratton Park will be electric on Saturday lunchtime. They've beaten Middlesbrough (5th) and Ipswich (2nd) without conceding in their last two games. Giving them a four-point cushion on the relegation zone.

Beat a Leicester side, who are winless in five and have won just once in 16 in the league, and they'll likely seal safety.

Though the Foxes are second-bottom, they still prefer to have more possession than their opponents - they're not your typical relegation-scrapper. In their last two away games, they had 55% at Watford 70% at Sheffield Wednesday.

Pompey have just won back-to-back games with 29% and then 40% possession. It's not quite rinse and repeat, but there are loads of things that Pompey have done well in their last couple that they can apply to taking on Leicester.

My unique goal algorithm ranks the best games for goals every week, I've used them to pick out a BTTS & No Draw Longshot but feel free to use these however you like for your picks.

The initial league meeting between these sides produced five goals and saw BTTS & No Draw as Hamburg ran out 3-2 winners over Werder Bremen.

Werder Bremen have seen BTTS & No Draw in three of their last five matches across all competitions.

Hamburg have seen BTTS in four of their last five matches across all competitions, seeing BTTS & No Draw in two of these games.

Hamburg have conceded 27 goals across their 14 away games in the Bundesliga this season (1.92 per game). 

Over 2.5 Goals Rating - 5.63 
BTTS Rating - 6.55

My unique goal algorithm ranks the best games for goals every week, I've used them to pick out a BTTS & No Draw Longshot but feel free to use these however you like for your picks.

Wolfsburg have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 22 matches across all competitions.

The initial league meeting between these sides produced four goals and saw BTTS & No Draw as Wolfsburg came away 3-1 winners at home.

Wolfsburg have conceded more goals on the road than any other side in the Bundesliga this season (34).

Only three of Wolfsburg’s 14 away games have ended in draws. Both sides have only drawn one of their last five matches.

Over 2.5 Goals Rating - 6.15
BTTS Rating - 7.15

My unique goal algorithm ranks the best games for goals every week, I've used them to pick out a BTTS & No Draw Longshot but feel free to use these however you like for your picks.

Brann have failed to keep a clean sheet across their last 19 matches.

Viking have scored 11 goals across their opening four games of the season (2.75 per game).

Four of the last five head to head meetings between these sides have seen BTTS.

Brann have seen BTTS & No Draw in five of their last six matches across all competitions.

Over 2.5 Goals Rating - 7.70
BTTS Rating - 6.00

My unique goal algorithm ranks the best games for goals every week, I've used them to pick out a BTTS & No Draw Longshot but feel free to use these however you like for your picks.

Atletico Madrid have seen BTTS & No Draw in four of their last five matches across all competitions.

Real Sociedad have seen BTTS in four of their last five matches, seeing BTTS & No Draw in three of these games.

The most recent league meeting between these sides saw BTTS & No Draw as Atletico came away 3-2 winners over Real Sociedad. 

Over 2.5 Goals Rating - 7.70 
BTTS Rating - 7.63 

Leverkusen have improved as the season has unfolded after struggling in the early parts of the season under Erik Ten Hag, who was swiftly dismissed after a poor start to the campaign. Leverkusen netted six goals in their most recent home game as they battered Wolfsburg, coming away 6-3 winners in that clash - and they have a very appealing record at home to back them to score at least twice here.

Leverkusen have avoided defeat in 11 of their 14 home matches in the Bundesliga this season. They’ve held the likes of Bayern and Arsenal at home over recent weeks, which shows just how hard it is to get a result away at Leverkusen at the moment. They’ve scored 32 goals across these matches, working out to an average of 2.28 goals per game in front of their home fans. They have plenty of motivation here too, they are currently four points behind Leipzig in the race for a Champions League finish, with Hoffenheim also not out of that race yet.

Leverkusen welcome an Augsburg side who have been dreadful on the road in the Bundesliga this season - winning just three of their 14 away matches. They’ve conceded 27 goals across these games, with only four sides conceding more goals on the road in the Bundesliga this season. Augsburg have failed to win any of their last five matches, conceding 2+ goals in four of these games.

The initial league meeting between these sides saw BTTS as Wimbledon came away 2-1 winners over Plymouth. Wimbledon find themselves in a very different situation to where they were for that clash, coming into this game having lost each of their last five matches across all competitions - leaving them just three points above the drop zone.

Wimbledon have failed to score in any of these matches, which could be a concern, but they’ve been playing some of the best sides in the division across this recent run - including Stockport, Luton and Lincoln. They take on a Plymouth side who just conceded two goals against another relegation threatened side in Exeter at home, so they should be defensively vulnerable enough for Wimbledon to pose an attacking threat in this must win game for the home side.

Plymouth have seen BTTS in three of their last five matches across all competitions, and have notably conceded 26 goals across their 20 away games in League One this season - also scoring 35 goals themselves, which is more than any other side on the road in League One this season. 

The respective clean sheet records for both of these sides also make goals at both ends likely. Only Barnsley (3) have kept fewer clean sheets in League One this season than Wimbledon (7), while Plymouth have only kept 12 shutouts across their 42 matches in the division (28%). 

Given where both teams sit in the table, Notts County v Barnet should see goals. County are still firmly in the hunt for automatic promotion, while Barnet are pushing for a play off spot.

Notts County come into this game in patchy form - just 6 points from a possible 15, after being punished by promotion rivals Cambridge last time out in a 4-0 defeat. They need a win to climb back into the automatic places, despite sitting pretty comfortably in the automatic spots just a few weeks. 

Goals have flowed in their last five matches, with 16 in total (3.20 per game). However, they’ve been leaky at the back, scoring 6 but conceding 10. Despite being shut out by Cambridge last time, it’s unlikely they’ll draw another blank here. They’ve scored the second most goals in the division (1.65 per game) and face a Barnet side that has managed just one clean sheet in their last eight.

Barnet’s recent matches have been even more goal-heavy - 21 goals across their last five games, averaging 4.20 per match. They’ve also won four of those five, so confidence is high.

With both sides desperate for a result and recent form pointing toward plenty of action at both ends, this game looks primed to produce at least two goals.

This is a big matchup in the battle for Champions League places, especially for Chelsea, who trail Manchester United by seven points heading into kickoff. Liam Rosenior’s side have lost three straight Premier League games without managing a single goal. Two of those defeats came at home, including a flat 3-0 loss to Manchester City most recently.

The first league meeting between these two finished with exactly three goals, as Manchester United won 2-1 against Chelsea - largely because Chelsea had Rob Sanchez sent off within the first three minutes.

Chelsea have seen three or more goals in each of their last four matches across all competitions, conceding three goals in three of those games. They’re really missing Trevoh Chalobah and Levi Colwill, their two best centre-backs, so you’d expect the Chelsea defence to struggle again here against a side that has taken more shots than any other Premier League team this season.

Manchester United’s matches have been pretty chaotic under Michael Carrick as well. They’ve seen three or more goals in each of their last five games heading into this trip to Stamford Bridge, and can put all their focus on qualifying for the Champions League since United are only competing on one front.

I’m keen to keep Partick Thistle onside by backing them in the Draw No Bet market away at Airdrie on Saturday afternoon. The Jags sit five points behind league leaders St Johnstone heading into the final three rounds of action, but they could cut that gap to two this weekend, with the leaders without a fixture due to Dunfermline’s Scottish Cup commitments. Moreover, Partick Thistle are currently enjoying an 11-match unbeaten run in the Scottish Championship, with their latest success a 2-0 victory over 3rd-placed Dunfermline last Saturday.

As for Airdrie, they come into this clash on a downer after surrendering a two-goal lead in a 2-2 draw against what was effectively a second-string Dunfermline side on Tuesday night. That setback leaves the Diamonds still occupying the relegation play-off spot, just three points above bottom club Ross County.

On top of that, Airdrie have now won only one of their last eight Scottish Championship home matches, coming away empty-handed from four of those. It is also worth noting that Aaron Taylor-Sinclair’s side have failed to beat Partick Thistle in three attempts this season, losing two of those encounters.

I think Morton can take a significant step towards preserving their Scottish Championship status by avoiding defeat against Queen’s Park on Saturday. Ian Murray’s men head into the weekend sitting five points above the relegation play-off spot, and they will know that a victory here would all but secure their safety.

While the Ton have lost their last two matches, both came on the road, so I’m prepared to overlook those results, particularly given their tendency to be a tough nut to crack at Cappielow. That is underlined by the fact Morton have lost just two of their last seven home matches, notably defeating Dunfermline and Arbroath during that run - two sides currently occupying top-four positions.

The case for siding with Morton is strengthened by the fact that Queen’s Park - who have won just one of their last five league matches - are effectively in no man’s land, as they are unlikely to be dragged into relegation trouble, while a push for the promotion play-offs appears all but out of reach. It is also worth noting that the Spiders were beaten 2-0 at home by Raith Rovers in midweek, meaning the hosts should have fresher legs, as well as greater motivation.

Ayr United look to have turned a corner since making a managerial change, and I think they can get on the scoresheet away at Ross County on Saturday. Since John Rankin replaced Scott Brown, the Honest Men have taken four points from three games, holding title-chasing Partick Thistle to a 1-1 draw and edging past 4th-placed Arbroath 1-0 last weekend. That mini upturn has eased any relegation concerns, and Ayr will be well aware that another positive result here would all but secure their status for next season.

Ross County, by contrast, are sliding towards the second tier trapdoor. A three-game losing run has heightened fears of back-to-back relegations, with their latest setback a 1-0 defeat away at Queen’s Park. That came on the back of a heavy 4-0 home loss to fellow strugglers Airdrie, so confidence looks fragile within the Staggies camp. What’s more, Stuart Kettlewell's side have now failed to keep a clean sheet in six of their last seven outings, conceding multiple goals in four of those matches. With that in mind - alongside the fact Ayr have scored in 13 of their 16 away league games this season - the visitors look well placed to strike in Dingwall.

I’m expecting Inverness to take another step towards the Scottish League One title by seeing off Kelty Hearts on Saturday afternoon. The Caley Jags returned to the top of the standings by winning 2-0 away at Peterhead on Tuesday night. That leaves Inverness firmly in control of their own destiny heading into the final three matchdays, with this weekend’s clash against bottom club Kelty Hearts representing a prime opportunity to pick up another three points.

As mentioned, Inverness struck twice in midweek, meaning that they have now scored two or more goals in 13 of their 19 league wins this season, a combination that looks worth backing this weekend. While Kelty have shown some fight in their bid to climb off the foot of the table, their away form remains a concern.

Thomas O’Ware’s team have lost three of their last six on the road, including trips to Stenhousemuir and Queen of the South - both top-four sides. It is also worth noting that the Fife outfit have conceded two or more goals in each of their eight league defeats away from home this term, and I think all the signs point towards a similar outcome against title-chasing Inverness on Saturday.

I think Annan’s clash with Spartans in Scottish League Two on Saturday has all the makings of an entertaining encounter, with both teams to score holding plenty of appeal. Both sides still have plenty to play for heading into the run-in, with the hosts firmly in play-off contention while Spartans remain locked in a tight title race with East Kilbride. That should lend itself to an end-to-end encounter between the pair this weekend.

Moreover, both teams netting has been a consistent feature of Annan’s home fixtures this season, as it would have been the correct call  in 12 of their 16 league games at Galabank, including a 1-1 draw with Spartans earlier in the campaign. The same pattern has also been evident in Spartans’ away matches, with BTTS paying out in 12 of their 16 assignments away from their capital base.

Further encouragement for this selection comes from the fact that both teams have scored in three of Spartans’ last four league matches, the most recent being a surprise 2-1 home defeat to Stranraer last weekend.

Joao Gomes registered just one foul in the reverse fixture against Leeds at Molineux, but he ended that game with four tackles to his name and was dribbled past three times, underlining how involved he was on the defensive front.

The 24-year-old is one of the most intense midfielders in the Premier League when it comes to pressing, and he ranks second out of all players for total fouls committed, only behind Igor Thiago. Gomes is averaging 2.15 fouls per 90 in the Premier League this season, rising to an eye-catching 2.42 when playing away.

With Leeds expected to dominate proceedings at Elland Road, Gomes should have plenty of duels to get through. Both Manuel Ugarte and Casemiro recorded exactly two fouls against Farke’s men last time out, highlighting how this is a solid matchup to target the Brazilian.

Wolves have also been poor on their travels, and they have failed to win any of their 16 Premier League away matches this campaign.

They were most recently beaten 4-0 by West Ham, as centre back Konstantinos Mavropanos bagged a brace against them from corners. Wolves clearly have a weakness when it comes to dealing with crosses, and Leeds should look to target that. 

Leeds are averaging 4.5 corners per game in the Premier League this season, rising to 5.56 when playing at Elland Road. They like to utilise width in their attacks, and they tend to be more front-footed on home turf. Wolves usually struggle to exert control on their games, especially when playing away, so it could be one-way traffic here.

Farke will know the importance of securing another three points here, so his side should be attack-minded, and that makes Leeds corners a target.

Newcastle went with a pragmatic low block at the Vitality Stadium for the reverse fixture in August, and the result was an unremarkable 0-0 draw.

Eddie Howe opted for a back five in that match, and they registered just four shots worth 0.14 xG, but there is no chance they will go for a similar setup here, especially at St James’ Park. In fact, these sides met recently in the FA Cup in January, and it was a six-goal thriller with the goals shared three apiece. 

Newcastle need to bounce back after their recent poor results, so they are likely to be front-footed in their approach. They tend to be effective at finding the back of the net when playing at home, but keeping Bournemouth at bay will be Newcastle’s main challenge.

The Cherries have plenty of firepower going forward, as Arsenal discovered last weekend.

BTTS has landed in each of Newcastle's last seven home matches across all competitions, which shows how chances are usually available at both ends of the field. Since Bruno Guimaraes has been injured, the Magpies have really struggled with limiting chances for their opponents, and they just haven’t looked as compact in midfield. 

Aaron Ramsdale has taken over from Nick Pope as the number one option in between the sticks for Newcastle, and he has been kept busy in recent weeks. Ramsdale recorded three saves against Crystal Palace last time out, meaning he has landed this bet in six of his last seven matches. 

This upcoming matchup against Bournemouth is an excellent one for Ramsdale to improve that hit-rate further, as the Cherries are drawing an average of 3.31 saves per game in the league this season. Andoni Iraola’s men are operating at peak capacity, and they should be able to cause problems going forward.

This is really generously priced when compared to other bookmakers, the same selection is as low as 3.60 - so getting 5.0 here is well worth taking on Paddy Power.

Newcastle are winning more corners than any other side in the Premier League this season (yes, even more than Arsenal), averaging 6.44 corners per game. This jumps to an average of 7.06 corners per game when playing at St James' Park. Bournemouth have won 90 corners across their 16 away games in the Premier League this term (5.63 per game), only three sides have won more corners on the road than the Cherries this season.

Cards should also be a formality for Andoni Iraola's side, who are one of the most aggressive sides in the league when out of possession. They press really high, and often get rewarded for this bravery as we saw in their 2-1 win over Arsenal last time out - a game in which they picked up three yellow cards. Only Tottenham (78) and Brighton (80) have picked up more yellow cards than Bournemouth (74) in the Premier League this season.

This should come down to a second card for Newcastle. Eddie Howe's side are a bit further down the league when it comes to yellow cards (53 - 14th), working out to an average of 1.70 cards per game. I'm confident that Bournemouth's intensity can force a rise in this card count. There is also the factor of St James' Park being quite toxic at the moment given Newcastle's underwhelming season so far - potentially leaking onto the pitch and showing through some heavy challenges.

Tottenham's predicament is beginning to become real now - they are in the relegation zone, and two points adrift of West Ham with just six league games remaining. Under Igor Tudor, Spurs picked up just one point in the from a possible 21, and De Zerbi was unable to break Tottenham’s winless curse in the Premier League against Sunderland. Nordi Mukiele's deflected strike condemned them to a 1-0 defeat at the Stadium of Light.

Tottenham have now failed to win any of their last 14 league matches. To make matters worse, captain Cristian Romero was forced off in tears late on at Sunderland after a collision with his own goalkeeper, and he is likely to miss the remainder of the season. 

Brighton, by contrast, come into this in excellent form, having won 2-0 at Burnley last time out. Fabian Hurzeler's side sit ninth in the table with 46 points, having won five of their last six league matches.

Tottenham have been shown 80 yellow cards in their 32 Premier League games this season, which is the joint-most along with Chelsea and Brighton. Spurs are averaging 3.17 cards per game when playing at home this season, which is a notable increase on their average of 2.19 when playing away, which makes this market stand out. This bet has landed in 14 of Tottenham’s 16 home games overall. 

The pressure of their situation seems to be having a major effect on the players, and Spurs picked up two cards in the reverse fixture at the Amex Stadium in September. Brighton have been much better this season at picking up cards than drawing them, but Liverpool were recently booked five times against the Seagulls, highlighting how they can be a difficult side to contain.

De Zerbi deployed Randal Kolo Muani in a right wing role on his debut at Sunderland, setting up in a 4-2-3-1 formation. If the Frenchman starts in that position again, his primary matchup should be Ferdi Kadioglu at left back. The Turkish international is averaging 1.18 fouls drawn per 90 in the league this season, and he has been fouled 10 times in his last five matches alone. He is quite direct in his approach, and sees plenty of the ball for Brighton, so this presents a good matchup to target Kolo Muani. 

Kolo Muani has impressive foul data for a forward, averaging 2.31 per 90 in the league this season. He is willing to press from the front, and De Zerbi's system demands exactly that intensity out of possession. The Frenchman has landed this selection in five of his last seven Premier League starts.

Jack Hinshelwood has established himself as a key figure for Brighton in recent months, and he has started the last seven consecutive games. Hinshelwood typically operates in an advanced midfield position, looking to get into the opposition box and create overloads, which means he is given quite a big role in the final third.

The 21-year-old is averaging 1.8 shots per 90 in the league this season, and has registered multiple shots in six of his last seven starts. That includes landing this bet against Aston Villa and Arsenal, with exactly three shots in both of those respective games. 

Spurs are a much easier matchup than both of those sides, and they have conceded the sixth-most shots of any side in the division. They are a side massively lacking confidence at the moment, and Brighton will hope to capitalise on that as they mount a push for a European finish.

Joao Pedro

Joao Pedro has been one of the few players that has improved under Liam Rosenior at Chelsea with the Brazilian registering 14 goal contributions since the former Strasbourg boss took over. His shot output has increased as well, rising from 1.80 shots per 90 to 2.47 shots per 90.

This rise has seen Joao Pedro become Chelsea's top scorer in the Premier League with 14 goals to his name - only Erling Haaland has scored more non-penalty goals in the Premier League than Joao Pedro, so he's matured into a really complete striker since Rosenior took over. He's averaging 1.01 shots on target per 90 across the season as a whole, but this has also increased significantly under Rosenior's watch with Joao Pedro's shot on target average rising to 1.62 shots on target per 90 since Rosenior's appointment.

Benjamin Sesko

Benjamin Sesko is so so talented. He has all the attributes to be a top Premier League striker, with his shot power and aerial ability being key traits. He's enjoyed a really positive first season for his debut campaign in the Premier League - scoring nine goals across 14 starts from 31 shots on target (1.96 per 90).

This promising shot on target average is partly due to how positive United have been in the final third this term. Michael Carrick's side have had more shots and shots on target than any other side in the Premier League this season, a massive swing from the frequent dull viewing that United fans had to endure under Ruben Amorim last term. Sesko has benefitted from this, and I think his ability in the air will be a particular issue for Chelsea who are missing their two best centre backs in Trevoh Chalobah and Levi Colwill.

This bet should be fun to track, we're needing both strikers to have at least two efforts on target in a massive game in the Champions League race.