Bristol City v Swansea

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Swansea were gifted the South Wales derby on a plate against Cardiff last Sunday given Callum Robinson’s very early red card. However, that did make it three wins in a row in that fixture for The Swans and that sort of mentality and spirit might help them in another local game here.

Bristol City have faded from a promising start and sit near the bottom of all of the performance metric related tables. Where their goal threat was keeping them in with a shout before this appears to be subsiding with the last four games seeing The Robins running at only 0.6xG per match. Nigel Pearson needs his big players to come to the fore, however, Pearson admitted to the press this week that many senior players may be unavailable due to injury and illness. How much of this is to be believed is another question, but even if players haven’t been training then it isn’t ideal preparation for this match.

Swansea will still be missing key attacker Joel Piroe but his absence has meant that Michael Obafemi has been a focal point and he looked full of action on Sunday. Ollie Cooper has been excellent lately as well in a fairly free role in and around Obafemi.

Whilst Swansea’s underlying numbers have cooled off themselves in recent weeks they are still much better in both boxes than their opponents here. Taking the season as a whole to this stage the expected points table looks relatively similar to the actual table for both clubs with Swansea in 7th and Bristol City 15th, instead of 4th and 13th respectively. There isn’t a gulf between the sides either way over the whole season, this is the nature of The Championship of course, but recent form and team news suggest that there is a touch of value about the Welsh side in this fixture.

The best way of taking advantage of this value is to side with Swansea and to be able to get odds against in a draw no bet scenario looks like the best choice.

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Luton Town v Sunderland

Luton Town need a reaction. Up against rivals Watford last Sunday, the Hatters succumbed to a brutal 4-0 defeat in front of the Vicarage Road crowd. Nathan Jones noted the impact of a sickness bug on his squad in the build-up to the game however as some notable players missed out. Luton return to their Kenilworth Road home this weekend though, a place they haven’t been beaten at since the 3rd September and have picked up wins over both second and third in the current Championship table. A 3-5-2 spearheaded by Carlton Morris and Elijah Adebayo has looked strong across most of the season so far, and Hatters fans will be keen to see it return to its best on Saturday.

The knock to Luton Town’s confidence could potentially benefit Sunderland, even on a run of three defeats from their last four games. Tony Mowbray has had a tricky time at the helm of the Black Cats, though this can be seen as understandable as he still has to make do without his two key strikers in Ross Stewart and Ellis Simms both remaining unavailable. Jack Clarke has been the man recently tasked with leading the line, the 21-year-old a more natural winger but nonetheless one of the leading dribblers at second tier level. Alex Pritchard, Elliot Embleton and Amad Diallo formed the supporting trio during Sunderland’s recent game against Burnley, a match which began brilliantly for the hosts.

The Wearside outfit’s 2-0 half-time lead came from goals by Amad Diallo and Dan Neil, though the team ultimately succumbed to the quality Burnley and saw their advantage completely overturned. Burnley lead the entire division however after playing 17 matches and there are few sides who can comparably match the talent that Vincent Kompany has at his disposal.

Sunderland’s return to the Championship has been largely unspectacular, but is matching expectations as they keep themselves clear of the second tier relegation zone. Though Black Cats supporters may want to feel otherwise, there is no real pressure on Sunderland to get a result at Luton Town this weekend. With the Hatters knocked out of shape by their recent derby defeat however, perhaps there is an opportunity for the fans of Tony Mowbray’s fluid side to leave the Oak Road End with a point or three added to their season tally…

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Wigan v Watford

Whilst I am recommending backing a Watford win here, this is primarily a price angle. I hadn’t been expecting to see Watford at a price that much above even money for this match. Granted, The Hornets have been maddeningly inconsistent this season, and this hasn’t changed under Slaven Bilic, their ceiling is probably higher than any other teams’ in this division.

This was proven with their comprehensive dismantling of a very good Luton side on Sunday. Bilic went very attacking in his lineup and this provided one of the outstanding Championship players, Joao Pedro, the platform to show what he can do. When the Brazilian is able to combine with the other key attackers in the Watford squad, Ismaila Sarr, Yaser Asprilla, and a focal point forward, perhaps Vakoun Bayo, then he can weave tremendously exciting attacking patterns. He is at his best when not that focal point himself.

Watford have been guilty of being weak defensively though this season, so when backing them to win here we have to take that into account. Wigan may well score, but when I look at their attacking options I am always left slightly underwhelmed. Nathan Broadhead is probably the sharpest goalscorer available to Leam Richardson, and whilst I do think he is Championship ready, he isn’t yet one of the leading forwards in the division. Wigan’s xG over the season is around 1.07 per match, but recently has dropped to 0.87 in the last few matches, not a team in form going forwards.

The Latics have won half of their home xG battles, the same as Watford’s away xG battle record. With the confidence that will have undoubtedly have been taken from that excellent performance against Luton, Watford have every chance of being the team that creates the most and best chances in the game and the team sheet would suggest that they might also have the players better capable of taking advantage.

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Burnley v Reading

Many people may look at this match and it would be an automatic home win. It may well end up this way, but there is quite a lot of evidence to suggest that it won’t be quite as straightforward as the bookmakers suggest, therefore I have avoided the home win and instead prefer to concentrate on a goals angle.

Burnley’s low xG of late was mentioned in this column last week, though a second half onslaught at Sunderland saw the recommended bet lose, it was actually further evidence that Burnley aren’t actually creating that much. Their xG for that match at the Stadium of Light was only 0.8, which makes sense when you see the goals. Since then they relied on a late penalty to notch against Norwich at home, and although that continued a run of scoring in every home game this season, the chances in general are beginning to dry up.

However, The Clarets are also continuing to tighten up defensively. Norwich were the ninth opponent in a row that Burnley have kept to under 1xG in The Championship. Taylor Harwood-Bellis has really grown into his role as a leader at the back for Burnley and the structure around him, especially the screening in front by Josh Cullen and Jack Cork, is stifling teams in the key central areas. This is contributing to Burnley having one of the lowest xG per match totals in the whole division, with their last four matches seeing only 1.47xG per match.

Reading’s away record isn’t great in terms of results, but performance wise there has been improvement. Whilst it is more likely that they don’t take three points from this match I have a degree of confidence that they won’t fold either. They themselves are on a good defensive run of denying opponents some good chances with Bristol City, Swansea, and West Brom being kept to less than 0.6xG in their last three matches.

With the bookmakers quite keen for goals the recommended bet is taking advantage of the fact that there is a workable price for Under 3.5 goals here. Burnley could win 2-1 or 3-0 and still allow this bet to cop.

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Huddersfield v Millwall

This match pits together the team at the bottom of the league table with the team currently sitting top of the expected points table over the last four and eight game sample sizes. So whilst Huddersfield haven’t been getting the results, Millwall have been putting in some pretty strong recent performances. This makes the Millwall win price quite an appealing one.

The platform for Millwall’s improvement lies in their tightening defence. This in turn seems to stem from the change in formation that Gary Rowett has brought to the team. Whilst a move from a 3-man defence to a 4-man defence is usually seen as a more attacking change, and it certainly hasn’t hindered Millwall’s ability to score goals and create chances, but it has allowed a structural change in midfield that allows two players to occupy that space in front of the defence and help to prevent both counter attacking opportunities and more structured attacks.

Huddersfield have struggled in front of goal regardless of opponent this season. Undoubtedly Mark Fotheringham will need time to produce his game model with the players available to him but recent evidence is that chances aren’t being created, especially in open play. The Terriers bring into this team the lowest open play xG in the last four games at a meagre 0.23 per match.

Millwall have found a way of late of getting the job done. Their array of forward players seem to take it in turns to pop up and make something happen. Zian Flemming has clearly found his feet in the league now, Tom Bradshaw found the net again recently, and Andreas Voglsammer and Callum Styles have each added their own talents to the attack after coming in during the summer. 

Millwall are a real threat to the promotion and play-off places this year and their price to win this game looks to be one to take on.

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