England v Denmark Analysis & Betting Tips

As expected England saw off Ukraine with ease on Saturday night in Rome and have now qualified for the semi-finals of a European Championship for the first time since 1996. They will return to the home comforts of Wembley which is a huge boost but will face a far tougher opponent in Denmark who continue to grow from strength to strength since the hideous incident involving Christian Eriksen in the group stages.

England Euro 2020 Analysis & Predicted Formation

As always seems to be the case with England, the key call for Southgate will be whether to stick with a four at the back which worked so well against Ukraine or return to a five which of course saw of Germany in the last 16. Southgate tends to play a five against ‘superior’ opponents or teams that like to play with high-attacking fullbacks and Denmark certainly fall in to that category. Left wingback Joakhim Maehle has been one of the standout players of the tournament so far and Southgate must find a way to stifle the Atalanta player. He is second in nearly every category for Denmark from shot creating actions, touches, successful dribbles, assists and even shots. The only defenders with more shot creating actions at the tournament than his 15 are Jordi Alba and Leonardo Spinazzola. This may tempt Southgate to switch back to a 5 but surely the temptation will be too strong to stick with the system that rifled through Ukraine.

There will likely be some personnel changes too. Southgate is yet to stick with the same 11 for successive games and I expect a change or two for this one as well. Sancho was handed his first start against Ukraine and although he did well I would be surprised if he wasn’t rotated out for Saka. The Arsenal man had a knock against Ukraine which ruled him out but I would expect him to return here. Saka is also far more accomplished defensively and can be trusted to do to Maehle what he did to Robin Gosens of Germany in the round of 16: limiting his touches, clogging space and winning the odd tackle when required. Apart from that I don’t see too many changes unless Southgate changes formation which at this stage I feel is unlikely.

England Predicted Line-up vs. Denmark: Pickford; Walker, Stones, Maguire, Shaw; Phillips, Rice, Mount; Saka, Sterling, Kane (4-3-3)

Match Prediction

No doubt in my mind that this will be a very difficult game for England. The Danes have coped far better than anyone could have imagined after witnessing the harrowing scenes that they did on the opening match day, and they followed up their thrashing of Wales in the last 16 with a 2-1 success over the Czechs in the last eight. They are very well organised and provide a massive threat through their attacking wing-backs who regularly deliver high quality balls in to the area for the very capable Kasper Dolberg, Martin Braithwaite and Yussuf Poulsen.

No doubt though that the three lions are going from strength to strength in this tournament and their 4-0 hammering of Ukraine was their most confident display to date. Having now gone seven games across all competitions without conceding a goal, a first-ever appearance at a Euros final and no team in history has navigated a Euros or World Cup campaign with six clean sheets to their name. The way they are playing at the moment there is every chance England could keep another clean sheet here and ultimately I feel they will edge out the Danes tomorrow night in what I expect to be a cagey affair. 2-0 England win is my prediction, Denmark will have their chances but I expect a rock-solid English defence to keep yet another clean sheet.

Denmark Predicted Line-up vs. England: Schmeichel; Christensen, Kjaer, Vestergaard; Larsen, Hojberg, Delaney, Maehle; Damsgaard, Braithwaite; Dolberg (3-4-2-1)

England v Denmark Euro 2020 Bet Builder Tips

As always it may be wise to wait for lineups to ensure the players you select for the bet builder are starting. Should my predicted 11’s be accurate then here are my favourite Bet Builder tips for the game this evening.

Joakim Maehle 1+ Shot on Target

I spoke in glowing terms about Joakim Maehle in the analysis section and I am running out of superlatives for how impressed I have been with him this tournament. You can tell he plays for Atalanta in the way he plays the game due to his non-stop appetite for going forward and bombing up and down the left hand side. According to UEFA rankings he has been the third most impressive player at the tournament this summer which shows how important he is to the Danes. He is averaging 1.03 shots on target for Denmark and if England do decide to play with 4 at the back which I believe they will he should be afforded a decent amount of space down the left hand side. Priced at 2.75 to me looks exceptional value and I expect Maehle to have a big say in the outcome of this game.

Harry Maguire 1+ Shot on Target

Another call which on paper may look a slightly rogue but trust me when I say there is method in the madness. England continue to be a real threat from set pieces as they showed throughout the World Cup 2018 campaign and once more against Ukraine with Harry Maguire netting a typically powerful header. He has had a shot on target in two successive games against both Germany in the last 16 and of course against Ukraine where he got on the scoresheet. He won a very impressive 54.3% of his attacking aerial duels for Manchester United last season and is without doubt one of the most threatening players from set pieces across Europe. He is a hefty 2.88 to register a shot on target tomorrow night which I feel is a cracking bit of value.

Kalvin Phillips to be booked

Phillips is now free from the looming threat of suspension which hung over him since picking up a card against Germany in the last 16. The Leeds United midfielder, who loves a big tackle was clearly told to be careful against Ukraine and very rarely engaged in duels which is something he is usually so keen to do. Going in to the semi’s all the players are rewarded with a clean slate meaning Phillips can be booked tonight and know that he will still be available to play in the final should England get there.

He will start in the midfield pivot alongside Rice as he has done all tournament and his main duty tonight from a defensive standpoint will be to stop the influential Hojberg and Delaney from dictating play for the Danes. That’ll be a serious battle in the middle of the park between three traditionally ‘dirty’ players and I don’t expect Phillips to come away unscathed. Phillips certainly isn’t shy of a card and the 10 he picked up in the Premier League last season ranks him 3rd in the division which highlights his love for a tackle and getting stuck in. At a price of 3.3 he looks as good a pick as any to do the business at a hyped up Wembley tonight and I expect the Yorkshireman to pick up a card in this one.

* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing *

How to watch England v Denmark in Euro 2020

📅   When is England v Denmark? / Wednesday, 7 July 2021, 20:00 BST
🏟   Where is England v Denmark taking place? / Wembley Stadium (London)
📺   What TV Channel is England v Denmark on? / ITV, STV, ARD
📱   Online Live Streaming for England v Denmark / bet365