Italy v England Analysis & Betting Tips

For the first time in 55 years, England have reached the final of a major tournament. The three lions saw off Denmark on Wednesday night at Wembley with Harry Kane scoring from the penalty spot in the 113th minute to seal an extra-time victory. Now in their first-ever European Championship final, England battle a formidable Italy team that have plenty of momentum of their own after a hugely impressive campaign to this point. Mancini and his men saw off the Spanish in a dramatic penalty shootout win at Wembley and will no doubt be formidable opposition for the English on Sunday.

England Euro 2020 Analysis & Predicted Formation

Southgate bravely stuck with 4 at the back against the Danes and didn’t alter his formation to match-up with Denmark as he did in the last 16 victory over Germany. The England manager cleverly used Bukayo Saka and his defensive quality to counter the threat of Danish left wing back Joakim Maehle who was largely thwarted by the Arsenal winger.

Now for the predicted lineup for the big day. Tough to see Southgate changing too much in honesty and it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see him stick with the same lineup which started the game against Denmark on Wednesday night. The England boss will face a similar decision over his formation against Italy, while Jack Grealish’s substitution in extra time against Denmark having only come on in the second half of the initial 90 looked to be a tactical decision rather than being caused by any injury. He clearly trusts Saka and the defensive balance he offers and also the pace and directness he brings in attack which he clearly showed on Wednesday by setting up the first goal. Pace is surely the way to hurt the Italians whose centre-back partnership have a combined age of 70 and Saka and Sterling certainly bring that. I suspect the likes of Grealish and Foden will once more be used as impact subs if/when needed and Southgate will continue to stick with the team which has brought him this far.

England Predicted Line-up vs. Italy: Pickford; Walker, Stones, Maguire, Shaw; Phillips, Rice, Mount; Saka, Sterling, Kane (4-3-3)

Italy Euro 2020 Analysis & Predicted Formation

After missing out on qualification for the World Cup in Russia three years ago, the Azzurri have been eager to make up for lost time, putting together a truly formidable run of 33 matches unbeaten. Their last defeat came all the way back in September 2018. They are vastly experienced on the biggest stage and while this is only England’s second appearance in a major tournament final, it will be the Italians tenth!

They have arguably been the team of the tournament so far as they absolutely cruised through the group stages and have beaten some of the tournaments biggest teams on their route to the final including the world’s no1-ranked team Belgium in the quarter-finals and most recently the Spanish in the semis. The togetherness between the group is clear to see and they celebrated on the Wembley pitch after the win against the Spanish by holding up the shirt of Leonardo Spinazzola with the Roma fullback missing the remainder of the tournament having picked up a serious Achilles injury against Belgium.

Mancini has been consistent with his team selection throughout and I am not expecting too many surprises ahead of Sunday. The Azzuri are still without Spinazzola of course after the Roma full-back was stretchered off against Belgium and subsequently underwent surgery on a ruptured Achilles tendon. He will be out for several months. Chelsea’s Emerson Palmieri deputised well for Spinazzola against Spain and will be expected to do so again on Sunday. Other than that there are very few question marks over the team and Mancini is highly likely to stick with the same core of players that have performed so admirably throughout the tournament so far.

Italy Predicted Line-up vs. England: Donnarumma; Di Lorenzo, Bonucci, Chiellini, Emerson; Jorginho, Barella, Varratti; Chiesa, Insigne, Immobile (4-3-3)

Match Prediction

It will surely be a tense, gripping and tight affair between two excellent, confident teams, potentially decided by just the one goal. Both sides are exceptional defensively and not only have they conceded the least goals in the tournament but the expected goals metric (xG) also rank them as the top two defensive sides this summer.

Pickford actually broke a 55 year old record held by Gordon Banks when he went a mammoth 720 minutes without conceding a goal before the Damsgaard freekick saw that run come to an end. He is also guaranteed to pick up the golden glove for the most clean sheets at the Euros irrespective of whether he concedes or not against the Italians on Sunday.

Can definitely see this going to extra-time as it did against Denmark on Wednesday. This is where I feel the strength in depth that England have and the quality of substitutes will prove invaluable. The ageing Italian backline is sure to fatigue against a youthful and pacey England forward line and I suspect eventually the English will be able to break them down. My prediction is a 1-1 draw in 90 minutes and then England go on to win the game in extra-time just as they did against the Danish in the semi-finals.

Italy v England Euro 2020 Bet Builder Tips

As always it may be wise to wait for lineups to ensure the players you select for the bet builder are starting. Should my predicted 11’s be accurate then here are my favourite Bet Builder tips for the game this evening.

Harry Kane 2+ Shots on Target

Kane is on one of his goalscoring runs just now and there looks to be no way of stopping him. He netted against the Danes on Wednesday night to bring his tally to the tournament to 4, even more impressive when you consider he didn’t manage to score throughout the group stages. No doubt the Spurs striker will be eyeing yet another major tournament golden boot and he needs just one more to move level with Cristiano Ronaldo on 5 goals at the Euros. Kane picked up the gong at the 2018 World Cup and given his appetite for goals will be determined to pick up back to back golden boots at a major international tournament. Kane has had 7 shots on target across the past 3 games and at a price of 2.4 to register a couple of target on Sunday evening I feel he looks decent value.

Lorenzo Insigne 1+ Shot on Target

Insigne is no doubt a Napoli legend but there have been question marks over whether he should ever be considered an Italian legend with his performances over the years for the Azzuri frustratingly inconsistent. He has certainly put those question marks to bed over the course of this summer’s tournament and he has been without doubt the biggest threat for the Italians from an attacking standpoint. Insigne is coming off his most prolific season, scoring 19 goals, but he has reached double figures now in six seasons straight. The freedom he is afforded by Mancini allows him to flourish as he has for so long in Naples and he has enjoyed a stellar tournament thus far. He averages over a shot on target per 90 for the Italians and at a price of 1.53 looks one of the better value options from an Italian standpoint.

* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing *

How to watch Italy v England in Euro 2020

📅   When is Italy v England? / Sunday, 11 July 2021, 20:00 BST
🏟   Where is Italy v England taking place? / Wembley Stadium (London)
📺   What TV Channel is Italy v England on? / BBC One, ITV, STV, ARD, ZDF
📱   Online Live Streaming for Italy v England / bet365

Who is commentating on Italy v England in the Euro 2020 Final

🎙   ITV & STV Euro 2020 Final Commentators / Sam Matterface & Lee Dixon (Not Clive Tyldesley & Ally McCoist unfortunately 🙄)
🎙   BBC One Euro 2020 Final Commentators / Guy Mowbray & Jermaine Jenas