In this article…
Pressing and out-of-possession tactics has become a far more nuanced part of football in the last decade. The top teams in the game have been able to utilise them to their advantage, in aiming to win the ball back in attacking areas and reduce the time that they spend without the ball.
In this article we will delve into the metric that measures pressing, PPDA, what it means, how it is measured, and most importantly how you can bet smarter after gaining an understanding of it.
What does PPDA mean?
PPDA stands for passes per defensive action.
PPDA is the number of opposition passes allowed outside of the pressing team’s own defensive third, divided by the number of defensive actions by the pressing team outside of their own defensive third. A lower figure indicates a higher level of pressing, while a higher figure indicates a lower level of pressing.
Opta
The ‘defensive actions’ that are used in the calculation are tackles, interceptions, challenges (failed tackles) and fouls.
The team that presses the most intensely will have the lowest PPDA number. Tottenham Hotspur had the lowest PPDA figure in the Premier League last season at 8.8, this means that their opposition averaged 8.8 passes per spell in possession (outside of Spurs’ defensive third), before the ball was turned over.
What is the purpose of PPDA?
PPDA tells us which teams are likely to harass their opposition when they don’t have the ball, and which teams are more likely to sit back and allow their opposition to retain possession of the ball.
The highest PPDA figure in the 2023/24 Premier League season was that of Nottingham Forest at 17.7. Allowing over double the passes per sequence out of possession (outside of their defensive third) that Tottenham did across the season.
This metric gives us an insight into what we can expect visually from a football match of Spurs’ or Forest’s, even if we only watched them for the first time towards the end of the season.
How to calculate PPDA in football
The equation is: Number of passes made by attacking team (team in possession of the ball) divided by the number of defensive actions.
How to access PPDA
PPDA is accessible for free via the Opta Analyst website, amongst other stats resources.
How does PPDA link to betting?
Fouls committed
Of the top ten players for fouls committed in the Premier League last season, five of them were attacking players for a team who ranked in the top six for PPDA.
Teams with a lower PPDA figure will engage in more defensive actions and therefore will be in situations where they are likely to foul an opponent more often than a team with a high PPDA.
This insight is incredibly valuable when considering betting on a player to commit a foul. Even if they have not fouled in recent appearances, if a player in an advanced position is playing for a side with a very low PPDA figure, they are likely to take up positions during a game to perform defensive actions, which over time will result in fouls being committed.
There is a clear correlation between the teams that have the highest PPDA figure and the lowest average possession. There are outliers, but the relationship between the two is clear to see. Below you can see the Premier League teams from 2023/24, filtered by average possession.
And here are the Premier League teams from last season ranked on PPDA.
The bottom two is made up of Sheffield United and Nottingham Forest for both metrics. Everton, West Ham United and Crystal Palace are towards the bottom end on both, with Fulham being more of an outlier. But what does this tell us?
PPDA in combination with average possession can give a greater insight into betting on fouls, than if you only looked at average possession.
PPDA points to which teams are going to sit off more when they don’t have the ball, average possession does not provide such insight.
For example, if you only looked at average possession, Bournemouth, seventh-lowest average possession, would look like a team that allow the opposition to have the ball. However, they rank fifth for PPDA and they went on to commit comfortably more fouls than any other team in the Premier League last term – 507 at 13.3 per game. 0.8 fouls committed per game more than any other team, a very significant difference over a 38-game sample.
What is a good PPDA?
There is no right way to win a game of football or set a team up. Therefore, it is important not to view the teams with the lowest PPDA figure as necessarily the strongest teams in that competition/league.
In the 2023/24 Premier League for example, Manchester City had the ninth-lowest PPDA figure, they ranked around mid table for the metric, and yet they lifted the title.
City had the most high turnovers in the league (416). A high turnover is when a team wins possession in open play within 40 metres of the opponent’s goal, as per Opta. They also had the most high turnovers in the league which resulted in them scoring a goal (13). Therefore, it is fair to say that City were the most successful team at pressing last season, but they were not the most intense in terms of PPDA.
Written by an Andy verified content writer
18+ please gamble responsibly.
