Lautaro Martinez’s rocket was enough to ensure Inter took all three points on the road against Roma and leave them second in Serie A having won five out of their eight games. They’re also yet to concede in the Champions League having held Man City to a 0-0 draw before smashing Red Star Belgrade 4-0.

Having made some smart investments over the summer, Inter are well equipped to rotate in what should be a fairly straightforward win. Dumfries and Taremi are both expected to step in to bolster the attack alongside plenty of reinforcement on the bench should the starting XI not be able to do the job.

Young Boys have struggled both domestically and internationally this season and are yet to get off the starting block in the Champions League, suffering heavy 3-0 and 5-0 defeats to Aston Villa and Barcelona respectively. In the Swiss Super League, they sit third from bottom having lost five out of their ten games despite the comparatively pretty low standard.

Mohamed has proved reliable for Young Boys since breaking into the team just ahead of the first international break but has a clear tendency for the not-so-occasional foul.

Across the Champions League and Swiss Super League, the centre-back has played nine games this season, sinning at least once in eight. He only failed to do so against FC Winterthur which was the only comfortable win (2+ goal margin) he’s featured in, with Young Boys cruising to a 4-1 victory. Overall he’s averaged 2.13 fouls per 90 in the league on top of sinning at least once in all four Champions League appearances.

He’ll come up against Lautaro Martinez who is a notoriously tricky forward, currently averaging 1.76 fouls drawn per 90. This is no anomaly for the Argentine who also won an average of 1.99 fouls last season and 2.20 the season before.

Another centre-back who will be faced with the unfortunate task of marking Martinez is Loris Benito. In addition to Martinez’s aforementioned 1.76 fouls won per 90 average, it’s also worth mentioning he’s drawn at least one in nine of his 10 starts this season.

Benito himself has struggled with injuries across the last two seasons but has since recovered from his torn ACL and is set to start against Inter. He’s found it difficult to cope in his limited minutes since his return, averaging 1.63 fouls committed per 90. Even before the injury which so often leaves lasting damage, Benito was averaging 1.19 fouls per 90.

He’ll have a lot of defending to against Inter and it’d be some surprise if he goes without being penalised at least once.

We’ve already detailed  Martinez’s impressive ability to draw fouls but the forward is often found guilty of returning the favour and has demonstrated remarkable consistency in doing so.

Affectionately known as ‘El Toro’ in Italy, Martinez has proved his namesake once more this season, averaging 1.92 fouls per 90 in Serie A. He’s sinned at least once in six out of seven league appearances,  as well as twice more in just 52 minutes of Champions League football.

In the Copa America, he reached new heights in the market, averaging a huge 3.24 fouls per 90. Across the international breaks, he sinned a further five times in just 246 minutes.

Hopefully, you’re not sick of hearing Martinez’s name by now but it just goes to show how important he is in this Inter side. He scooped up the Serie A golden boot award last season, notching 24 goals in just 33 league games while assisting a further 3. In doing so, Martinez surpassed the 20 mark for the third consecutive season.

Following that, Martinez impressed once more during the Copa America, picking up another Golden Boot award, this time for scoring five in six games en route to winning the tournament with Argentina. This season, he’s picked up just where he left off, accumulating seven goal contributions across his last six games (15+mins) with at least one coming in all but one.

Given our last selection, this leg could otherwise be interpreted as ‘Inter to win to Nil’ – an easily justifiable expectation. In the Champions League this season, Inter have kept clean sheets in each of their games, despite one of their matches being against Man City. That said, their form in Europe goes much further back with the Nerrazurri keeping 10 clean sheets in their last 16 Champions League games.

Last time out, Inter triumphed 1-0 over Roma, restricting the opposition to just 0.79xG despite playing away from home. It was their fifth clean sheet of the season, also managing the feat against Lecce and Atalanta.

Young Boys meanwhile, have failed to score in four of their last six games, including both Champions League clashes. Their dismal form has left them third-bottom of the league which doesn’t bode well given the gulf in quality between the Swiss Pro League and the Champions League.

Backing Monteiro to commit at least two fouls could be the best value of the lot and there’s plenty of evidence to go off.

Monteiro has sinned at least twice in eight of his most recent ten appearances for Young Boys, averaging 2.20 fouls per 90 in the league overall. Remarkably that streak includes a 15-minute appearance against Yverdon-Sport producing three fouls, and a 45-minute appearance against Lausanne-Sport resulting in four fouls.

None of this is atypical for the Swiss international who averaged a remarkable 2.37 fouls per 90 in the league, and 2.04 per 90 in the UCL last season. Inter are expected to dominate possession and attempt to play through Young Boys, giving their players ample opportunity to commit fouls. Provided the game does play out like that, Monteiro is one of the most likely culprits.

It’s a well-recorded fact that forwards tend to commit fouls more freely when up against possession-dominant, superior opposition and we think that’ll lead to Young Boys’ fouls being shared around the squad.

Cedric Itten has had his fair share of defending to do this season, partially as a consequence of Club Brugge’s poor start to the campaign. That, and a variety of other factors, has led to the Swissman averaging 1.77 fouls per 90, sinning at least twice in four of his five starts.

That said, his fouling form goes significantly further back and this actually represents his lowest average in the last five years. Looking at the opposite end of things, the most he’s managed is a remarkable 3.38 per game.