There is a good chance this could be quite an offensive game of football. Both teams rank inside the top five for the most over 2.5 goals games this season. Atalanta fixtures in Serie A average a massive 3.70 goals per game which is the most of any team. Milan matches average a healthy 2.80 goals per game so the stats support the over in this one. Atalanta have the highest xG of any team in the division (32.73) and Milan aren’t far behind (25.54). We should expect a feast of goals in Bergamo.

Atalanta have won 8 straight games in all competitions and are unbeaten in 13 consecutive matches. An inconsistent AC Milan side travel to Bergamo looking to get back into the top six. Milan have a mixed away record with two wins, two draws and two defeats. There is a very good chance that the hosts can extend their winning run but at the very least they should be able to take a draw. It’s been a long time since any team has managed to beat Atalanta because they are playing some of the best football in Italy, and indeed in Europe overall.

Retegui has been in great form this season, netting 12 goals in Serie A and also bagging a couple in the Champions League. He averages 3.40 shots per game and despite usually getting subbed off around the 70-75 minute mark, his work is often complete by the time he gets his breather. Retegui averages just over one shot on target per 90 in Serie A this season and should be good enough to test the keeper at least once. This is something he has managed in 4 of his last 5 Serie A games so he can be backed with confidence.

The role of de Roon in this Atalanta 3-4-3 system is the midfield enforcer. He will do a lot of the dirty work required and has clearly the highest foul rate of any player in the squad who has played more than 800 minutes in Serie A. The Dutchman averages 1.60 fouls per 90 and the best thing about backing him in any market is that he will almost certainly last the full game unless there’s an injury. Milan have at least a dozen players who all draw at least one foul per game so there are several candidates for de Roon to come unstuck against.

No team in Serie A has been leading at half time more than Atalanta this season. On 8 different occasions they’ve taken an advantage heading into the interval so they look a big price to achieve that here. Milan are a mixed side for first half performance but it’s clear they are going to be under pressure early here and might have to come from behind in order to get anything.

Only Inter have managed to completely shut out Atalanta in Serie A this season and they have an attacking force which has been clearly firing. There’s tons of goals in this team and it shouldn’t be a problem to get on the scoreboard facing an AC Milan side who have only kept one away clean sheet in Serie A. It might be that Atalanta will have to score multiple goals to win this game though because Milan are not in bad scoring form. They’ve netted three times in all of their last three away games and only Napoli and Juventus have managed to keep clean sheets against them in Serie A. It looks like this should be quite an offensive game so BTTS is a nice addition to a juicy bet builder.

AC Milan’s Portuguese international on the left wing averages 2.70 shots per 90 and looks a big price to hit the target just once here. Leao has been in decent form scoring 2 goals in his last 3 games and 5 in his last 7. Confidence should be quite high and he is unlikely to shy away from a shot if the right chance comes his way. 15 of his 32 shots have been on target this season which is an excellent accuracy ratio. He has registered at least one shot on target in 4 of his last 5 Serie A games and can deliver another one here.

Milan might struggle to avoid defeat but some of their players are underrated for shots and shots on target. It’s not like Atalanta are impermeable and have an incredible defence.

Pulisic scored recently against Slovan Bratislava and has netted 17 times across the last 16 months in Serie A. In total, 9 of his 22 shots have been on target in the league this term which isn’t too bad. He tends to be all or nothing and it might not be a bad thing that he failed to hit the target from four attempts in the last match.