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Brighton v Brentford
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Kick Off: Friday 27th December at 19:30
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Competition: Premier League
Brighton’s recent struggles continued with a 1-1 draw against West Ham, extending their winless run to 5 matches and leaving them in 10th place in the Premier League table. Despite their dynamic attacking style, the Seagulls have lacked the finishing touch to secure victories, and they’ll be eager to turn things around at the Amex Stadium. Brentford, meanwhile, are also enduring a rough patch, losing 2-0 to Nottingham Forest for their 4th defeat in 5 games. This slump has seen the Bees slip into the bottom half of the table, a position they’ll be desperate to improve.
⭐ Brighton v Brentford Best Bet
Brentford defender Nathan Collins presents a strong betting option to commit a foul at 1.83. Known for his physical style, Collins has committed a foul in 7 of his last 8 appearances, including 3 consecutive matches against Brighton. His aggressive approach to breaking up opposition attacks makes him an ideal candidate for this market, particularly against Brighton’s dynamic attack led by the likes of Mitoma and Joao Pedro. Over his last 8 games, Collins has committed 10 fouls, a clear indication of his willingness to disrupt play. Given Brighton’s high-tempo, possession-heavy approach, Collins is likely to be heavily involved defensively, which increases the likelihood of him committing at least 1 foul.
🟢 Brighton v Brentford #WhatOddsPaddy Tip
At odds of 40/1, combining Joao Pedro to score first and Christian Norgaard to be carded first is an intriguing longshot bet. Despite not scoring in his last 5 appearances, Joao Pedro has been consistently active in Brighton’s attack, registering 9 attempts during this run and narrowly missing on a few occasions. After scoring in back-to-back games following his return from injury against Manchester City and Bournemouth, the Brazilian will be eager to rediscover his scoring touch in this clash against Brentford.
On the other hand, Christian Norgaard has been walking a disciplinary tightrope, committing 12 fouls across his last 8 games without receiving a single booking. His aggressive midfield presence makes him a prime candidate to pick up an early yellow card in this fixture, especially against Brighton’s high-tempo style. This 40/1 bet offers a compelling mix of form trends and situational value.
👕 Brighton v Brentford Predicted XI
Predicted Lineup pending…
🔍 Brighton v Brentford Players to Watch
🔵 Kaoru Mitoma
Kaoru Mitoma remains Brighton’s most consistent creative force, and his influence is pivotal to their attacking play. The Japanese winger has had at least 1 shot in each of his last 13 games, totalling 25 attempts. Impressively, he has registered multiple shots in 9 of those outings, outperforming his average of 1.86 shots per 90 minutes. Against Brentford’s disciplined but occasionally vulnerable defence, Mitoma’s ability to find space and create shooting opportunities will be crucial. Furthermore, Mitoma’s pressing and high defensive work rate make him a strong contender for committing fouls. Despite averaging just 1.07 fouls per game, he has committed 11 fouls in his last 5 starts, with multiple in 4 of those games, making odds of 2.80 for him to commit multiple fouls highly appealing.
🔵 Joao Pedro
Brighton’s Brazilian forward Joao Pedro has become a magnet for fouls, averaging 2.59 fouls won per 90 minutes this season. Over his last 5 matches, Pedro has been fouled 12 times, with multiple fouls drawn in 4 of those games. His clever positioning, physical presence, and ability to hold up the ball often make him a target for defenders. Given Brentford’s compact and combative defensive setup, Pedro will likely attract plenty of attention once again.
📂 Brighton v Brentford Cheat Sheet
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💻 Brighton v Brentford Form and Tactics
Brighton’s attacking philosophy is evident in their statistical dominance over Brentford. The Seagulls average more shots per game (14.47-12.03), register more shots on target (5.24-4.65), and earn more corner kicks (5.43-4.87). Their high-tempo style also sees them win more fouls (11.64-10.63).
However, Brentford’s disciplined approach is reflected in their lower foul count (9.37-10.97) and fewer yellow cards received (2.00-2.34). These contrasting styles set the stage for an intriguing tactical battle with Brighton expected to dominate possession against the Bees’ low block.
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🏁 Brighton v Brentford Ref Watch
- Referee: Andy Madley
- Madley has distributed 28 cards in his last 5 Premier League matches, an average of 5.6 cards per game.
- He has shown 3 red cards in his last 10 league fixtures.
- There has been an average of 21.8 fouls per game during his last 10 games.
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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
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