While it’s always hard to decide between the dynamic tight end room of Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely, we’re going to back the experience in the play-offs. Mark Andrews started the season slowly but started to heat up towards the end, finishing 1st among tight ends and 4th among all receivers in touchdowns with 11. He’s extremely versatile as a blocker but has the most dependable hands on the team. Lamar Jackson trusts him, and in-game with such a high total we have a hard time seeing the Ravens not have plenty of red zone opportunities.

With the Bills bringing everyone down in the box to stop Derrick Henry, they will likely rely more on the man coverage. Zay Flowers accounted for 25% of the team’s targets against man coverage with Mark Andrews at 18.8%, Rashod Bateman at 18.2%, and Isaiah Likely at 11.7%. This opens up plenty of opportunity for the tight end room to take advantage, considering they will continue to run league amounts high 12 personnel.

We expect Josh Allen’s arm to be on full display in the matchup between the two MVP finalists. In only 11 play-off games Josh Allen has 2,995 passing yards with a 102.3 career postseason passer rating (6th all-time). He’s had an absolutely insane season and everyone on the Bills’ offense should be healthy with Amari Cooper and Curtis Samuel back in the lineup. They have a variety of different weapons that can beat you in man coverage, and Allen has the best deep ball in football.

While James Cook and the Bills were able to run all over the Broncos last week, we don’t expect that same result against the Ravens. Baltimore has been a top 5-rush defense all season, and if anyone has success on the ground we think it will be Allen carrying the ball himself.

The Ravens have been 1 of the biggest pass funnels all season long, and even though they improved a bit towards the end of the season, Josh Allen is the kind of quarterback who can take advantage. It feels like this line is set like Buffalo will have a balanced gameplan, but we think they come out aggressive.

Josh Allen isn’t the only MVP finalist we’re backing today, because there is nothing more guaranteed than Lamar Jackson running in the play-offs. Coming off a historic regular season, becoming the first player in NFL History with over 4,000 YDS passing and 800 YDS rushing in a single season, we expect Lamar to continue to bring that energy into the postseason.

In their first game, they took care of business in a game Lamar really didn’t need to run much in, but he still carried the ball 15 times for 81 yards. He had so many carries because they got him involved early and often with planned designed runs to keep defenses off balance. Because of their strong system, he leads all QBs and is 7th overall in rushing yards before contact.

The Ravens should do everything in their power to keep this game on the ground. The combination of Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson is a living nightmare for opposing linebackers, and Derrick Henry ran for 199 yards in their first matchup. Matt Milano is back for the Bills, but he hasn’t looked quite 100% and will face the toughest task in the league. In an intense play-off game, we expect Lamar to run and fight for every possible yard.