Football Accumulator Tips Today

Building on the obvious weakness of Barcelona at the back, Aston Villa have enough quality in forward areas to get on the scoresheet.

It would be a real shock if Barcelona didn’t manage to get on the scoresheet here, they’ve scored in each of their last 16 competitive matches - including every game this season.

So we’re mainly looking at Villa to score here, with Jackson and Manzambi being their main threats. Unai Emery’s side have scored at least three goals in every Champions League game so far.

This is an obvious step up in quality from those opponents, but I can’t get away from Barcelona’s risky style of play here which will inevitably lead to Villa getting decent chances in front of goal.

Barcelona have seen BTTS in each of their last five matches, including conceding goals to Deportivo La Coruna and Galatasaray. They also have seen BTTS in all three of their Champions League games.

Bayern have seen this selection land in each of their last 10 matches across all competitions, including all three of their Champions League games against Arsenal, Viking and Bodo Glimt.

Bayern have covered this line on their own in two of those games, and have also notably failed to keep a clean sheet across their last seven matches. That recent record would suggest that Atletico can contribute to the goal tally here in what should be an end to end and entertaining match.

Atletico’s recent matches have admittedly been a lot tighter, but their last two Champions League games have seen a red card produced in the second half - massively affecting the gamestate. They did see 3+ goals on Matchday 1, losing 2-1 to Liverpool at Anfield.

It’s hard to see how Atletico can get any success here by just being defensive solid. They have to offer an attacking threat to match the scoring power of Bayern, who have seen 3+ goals in 88% of their Bundesliga matches and 100% of their Champions League matches.

Villarreal look just a little off the level of the Champions League, which was evident in their last outing in the competition as they conceded four goals to Liverpool at Anfield.

They’ve conceded in all three of their Champions League matches, conceding 2+ goals in two of these games against Dortmund and Liverpool.

They conceded an xG of 1.70 against Napoli in the one game where this selection didn’t land, and a side with the attacking quality of PSG will be able to punish their defence more than the Italian side did.

PSG have scored at least four goals in every Champions League game so far, including clashes against Barcelona and Man City.

They’ve scored 2+ goals in each of their last seven matches, and Luis Enrique will see this as an opportunity to secure PSG’s spot in the top eight as they’re already flawless in the competition with three wins from three.

Man Utd are winless across their last nine matches, conceding multiple goals in each of their last three games against Chelsea, Bournemouth and Como.

There’s actually an argument to suggest that Carrick and his side may prefer playing away from Old Trafford at the moment, due to the growing toxicity in the ground which was evident against Bournemouth a few weeks ago.

Roma are flying under Gian Piero Gasperini, they scored five at the weekend against Udinese and have scored in each of their last six matches - netting multiple times in all of these games, including three goals against Real Madrid.

Roma have only failed to score in one game all season, which was an away defeat to Como where Roma were reduced to 10 men early in the second half. Malen in particular is playing really well, netting eight goals in Serie A already - he could be the one to get on the scoresheet for the away side.

El Khannouss is a really interesting player.

I was impressed with what I saw from him when he was at Leicester, but consistency has been an issue for the Moroccan.

He does have a pretty decent shot record to back him for an effort here, taking six shots across his three Champions League appearances (2.23 per 90).

His domestic record is appealing too, he had to be patient to earn his spot in the side at the start of the season but has had 10 shots across his four starts in the Bundesliga (2.23 per 90).

He scored from two shots in Stuttgart’s win over Leverkusen over the weekend, so he should have plenty of confidence to take on at least two shots here at a pretty decent price.

Luis Suarez is clearly Sporting’s biggest threat in front of goal and has had at least two shots on target in all three of his Champions League matches.

Suarez has scored eight goals across his seven starts domestically for Sporting, taking 28 shots across those games (3.80 per 90), with eight of them finding the target.

He’s on penalties for Sporting as well, which is where one of his four goals in the Champions League have come from this term. Only Nicolas Jackson and Kylian Mbappe have had more shots on target in the Champions League than Luis Suarez.

Dilane Bakwa is an exciting, but eccentric, winger and he’s at a decent price to have a few shots in this clash as Lille travel to Bodo Glimt.

Bodo Glimt’s games in the Champions League have a reputation for being entertaining and I can see this being an end to end affair.

Bakwa has had more shots than any other Lille player in the Champions League so far (6 - 2.39 per 90), and managed four shots against Galatasaray last time out - highlighting how he can sometimes take on shots when there are better options available.

Bakwa has also had a shot in all five of his Ligue 1 appearances this season, managing multiple shots in two of these games.

Barella has had a shot in all three of his Champions League matches this season, having two shots against Shakhtar last time out.

He’s got a consistent record domestically too, taking 16 shots across his nine appearances in Serie A (1.91 per 90), only three players in the Inter squad have had more shots than Barella in Serie A this term.

This record would suggest that Barella is being encouraged to push forward more often. He’s had a shot in eight of his nine appearances domestically, so this is clearly a consistent part of his game - with Barella having multiple shots in five of these games.

Bryan Mbeumo has had more shots on target than any other Man Utd player across all competitions this season (14 - 1.19 per 90).

He found the target right at the death against Chelsea last time out, forcing a superb save from Mike Penders. That effort on target landed my Chelsea v Man Utd Bet Builder on Saturday, and I think Mbeumo can help us to another winner.

He’s incredibly consistent when it comes to finding the target, managing at least one effort on goal in every Premier League match this term. He’s found the target in two of his three Champions League matches, only failing to do so against Como.

Mbeumo should lead the line for Man Utd again here, with Benjamin Sesko still battling an injury.

Believe it or not, only Mbappe (10) has had more shots on target in the Champions League this season than Nicolas Jackson (8).

He’s found the target twice in all three of his Champions League matches against Brugge, Fenerbahce and Viking. While this is an obvious step up in quality, Barcelona still offer up so many chances to opposition sides with their high line.

Jackson’s movement is really clever, and has improved further working under the guidance of Unai Emery - who seems to have a way to get the most out of forwards that previously haven’t been that clinical.

Jackson should also be full of confidence. He’s scored in each of his last two Premier League matches against Fulham and Man City, managing a shot on target in each of his last five games domestically.

There was a lot of promise in Burnley’s 0-0 draw with Portsmouth on Saturday, their first game with Fabio Celestini in charge.

Burnley generated 1.89 xG, with Marcus Edwards producing one of the biggest misses of the season so far, while, arguably even more impressively, they restricted Pompey to five shots and only one inside the box - equating to 0.25 xG.

A performance close to that will see them generate enough chances to get on the scoresheet at a QPR side who’re not known for defensive solidity.

They have conceded in 10/13 league games so far this season, while Burnley’s improved defensive process should give them the platform to express themselves more in the final third.

Poor old Preston.

They’ve already pressed the new manager button, welcoming a club legend in Graham Alexander back to the club after his very impressive work at Bradford, but he’s only returned one point from five league games.

They mustered a pathetic 0.10 xG from just three shots in their 2-0 defeat at Stoke on Saturday and they host a Sheff U side who have improved of late and are knocking on the door of the play-offs as a result.

Chris Wilder’s Blades have scored in their last five league away games, netting two or more in three of those, and have taken seven points from their last three games.

This bet is unbeaten in 12/13 PNE league games this season and they’re already six points adrift of safety, sitting rock-bottom with preparation for League One creeping towards the forefront of their minds.

Lincoln continue to be underestimated by the market and should get on the scoresheet at Vicarage Road.

Lincoln have scored in 10/13 in the league, and one of those blanks was a game where they saw two red cards in the first half, it’s 10/12 (83%) if we exclude that one.

Watford have only kept one clean sheet in their 13 league outings, and it came at home to Charlton - who’re 2nd-bottom for xG for and goals for.

Watford are a relegation-battler on virtually every metric, they’re at the bottom end for xG against as well, while Lincoln have scored seven goals in their last three games, with this bet landing in the first half of two of those.

Huddersfield are playing so well, it could materialise that they run away with the league and build a 10+ point cushion at the top.

They’re title favourites and as short as 1.44 in places for promotion.

If that comes to pass, it’ll make a mockery of the fact that we’re still getting prices around even money for them to win home games.

Huddersfield top the league on points, expected points, expected goal difference and xG against, while they’re 2nd for xG for.

There are two teams in this match though and Luton are only five points back in the table, they’re overperforming a touch in front of goal - netting 26 from 23.2 xG where Huddersfield are at a more sustainable 27 from 28.5.

The scheduling is against the visitors as well, this will be their second away game in four days while Huddersfield’s 3-0 early kick-off win at Bradford on Saturday was done and dusted by the time Luton kicked off in their 2-0 win at Peterborough.

This bet is unbeaten in 6/6 of Huddersfield’s home league games this term.

Southampton have scored in 12/13 league games so far this term, and they travel to a West Brom side who’ve unsustainably overperformed to concede only 14 from 19.0 xG.

Saints have scored seven goals in their last two games, and that’s come against 8th and 9th in the table (West Ham and QPR) but their attack has been so good they’ve been able to find the net like they were playing relegation-battlers.

West Brom have kept just two clean sheets in 13 league outings, shutting out Watford and Derby (21st and 23rd), they’re about to face a far superior attack.

Only Middlesbrough and West Ham have scored more in the league than Southampton, and the visitors rank 5th for xG for.

Rodri has committed 10 fouls across his 13 appearances for Barcelona across all competitions this season (1.00 per 90), but I’d expect that record to rise as we go through the season and there’s a favourable matchup here against one of the most fouled sides in the Premier League.

Aston Villa have long been a very good side when it comes to winning fouls, no English side has won more fouls than Villa since Emery took charge and that’s no coincidence - the way Villa play invites fouls and sets up individual matchups all over the pitch.

I’m particularly interested in Rodri’s battle with Joao Gomes here. I can see the Brazilian really getting involved in the midfield battle, antagonising Rodri in the process. He’s won four fouls in the Champions League this season.

Rodri will also have to manage the threat of John McGinn, who is one of the best players in Europe when it comes to winning fouls - maintaining an average of 2.00 fouls won per 90 or higher in each of the last three seasons.

Mario Hermoso committed three fouls at the weekend as Roma came away 5-2 winners against Udinese. I’d consider looking at higher lines for the centre back here, they’re pretty generously priced for a player that is regularly quite aggressive.

Hermoso has committed a foul in all three of his Champions League matches so far, committing multiple fouls against Real Madrid and Fenerbahce. He committed 40 fouls across 25 starts in Serie A last season (1.72 per 90), also maintaining an average of 1.93 fouls committed per 90 in the Europa League.

It’s clear that Hermoso is a consistent player when it comes to winning fouls, and will be one of the main Roma players to watch here for infringements. You can back Hermoso to commit 2+ fouls at 2.50, which is a really appealing price.

Tajon Buchanan has won more fouls than any other Villarreal player in the Champions League this season (7 - 4.67 per 90), and has also won the most fouls across all competitions for the LaLiga side (3.18 per 90).

He won 36 fouls across his 34 appearances in LaLiga last season (1.78 per 90), with only three players in the Villarreal squad winning more fouls than Buchanan during that campaign.

PSG aren't the most aggressive side in Europe, but do play with a really effective counter press. This can leave gaps, especially in wide areas with Hakimi and Mendes being so willing to push on into advanced areas. I can see Buchanan exploiting that space, making him a target to be fouled.