“With Bukayo Saka unavailable, Gabriel Martinelli assumes a key role in Arsenal’s attack. Averaging 1.48 shots per game, Martinelli has hit the target in 3 of his last 4 starts. In European fixtures, his accuracy improves, with shots on target in all but two matches this season. Martinelli’s pace and directness make him a reliable pick to challenge Girona’s defence.”

“Oriol Romeu’s physical style is well-documented, making him a magnet for fouls in midfield battles. Averaging 2.19 fouls per game, Romeu has committed at least two fouls in 6 of his last 9 starts as well as all four of his Champions League starts this season. Tasked with managing Arsenal’s technical midfield trio, Romeu’s combative approach and lack of agility are likely to see him rack up multiple fouls once again.”

“Retegui has been on fire this season and it’s no surprise he’s the frontrunner for the Capocannoniere (Serie A’s Golden Boot) given his league-topping average of 1.80 shots on target per 90 (including players to have started at least 1 game).

The forward has made 15 league appearances lasting 50 minutes or more and has tested the keeper at least once in 13. He’s maintained a similar standard in the Champions League where he’s started 5 games, and hit the target in all 5, in addition to once more off the bench against Real Madrid, despite being on the pitch for no more than 17 minutes.”

“Pasalic has struggled for minutes this season and even when starting, he tends to come off early, averaging 63 minutes played per match. That won’t be a problem for us because even if he does come off we’ll have Super Sub on our side, he’s likely to be replaced by De Roon who’s averaged an impressive 1.48 fouls per 90 minutes.

When given adequate game time, Pasalic has proved himself reliable, sinning at least once in 7 of his 9 league appearances lasting 75 minutes or more.

Barcelona’s expected starting midfield will consist of 1 of Europe’s most efficient foul-drawing trios, featuring Marc Casado (1.77 fouls won per 90), Gavi (1.71 won per 90) and Pedri (1.41 won per 90).”

“Brugge goalkeeper Simon Mignolet is likely to face a busy night between the sticks. While Brugge have displayed an excellent defensive record in the Champions League, Manchester City are expected to apply relentless pressure in a must-win game.

City boast 1 of the most formidable attacks in world football, and even in a season marked by inconsistency, they’ve averaged 7.57 shots on target per game in the Champions League and 6.13 in the Premier League. With City throwing everything at this game, Mignolet making at least 4 saves seems a highly realistic outcome.”

“Phil Foden to have 2 shots on target at evens presents good value. He’s averaged 3.17 shots per game in the Champions League, with 1.33 on target, and this is likely to increase given the match context.

As heavy favorites, Manchester City are expected to dominate possession, giving Foden plenty of opportunities to test the Brugge goalkeeper. With Brugge’s European defensive setup likely to invite pressure, Foden’s movement and ability to find space will put him in positions to rack up shots on target.”

“Callum McGregor is a key cog in the Celtic engine room and he draws attention from referees. The 31-year-old tends to be deployed as the deepest of Celtic’s 3 midfielders and therefore has to do the dirty work when required.

McGregor has committed a combined total of 6 fouls across his 7 Champions League appearances this season, including 1 against Young Boys last week. He should have his hands full here with the aforementioned Rogers.”

“Morgan Rogers has a real knack for reeling in fouls from the opposition. The Aston Villa ace is drawing an average of 1 foul per game in the Champions League this season. In the Premier League, that foul per 90 average increases to 1.36.

Rogers will most likely come up against Celtic’s Callum McGregor on Wednesday night. The Celtic captain has committed a foul in each of Celtic’s previous 2 Champions League away games.”

“Celtic carry more than enough attacking threat to work Aston Villa goalkeeper Emiliano Martinez at least twice on Wednesday night. Having already assured themselves of a play-off tie, Brendan Rodgers is unlikely to abandon his attacking approach at Villa Park. The Scottish champions have averaged 4.43 shots on target per game in this season’s Champions League, while Villa have faced an average of 5 on-target efforts per 90.

Bayern Munich forced 7 saves from the aforementioned Martinez when they visited Villa Park earlier this season, while Italian duo Bologna and Juventus have since called the Villa stopper into action on 4 and 2 occasions respectively at this venue. Celtic drew 2 saves from the opposition goalkeeper away from home against both Borussia Dortmund and Atalanta and they can continue in that vein at Villa Park.”

“Neves has really caught the eye for PSG this season, the midfielder was key to Luis Enrique’s side success against Manchester City last time out – a contest in which he had 7 shots, also finding the back of the net. Neves has had at least 1 shot in each of his last 5 appearances in the Champions League this season, shaping his average of 2.81 in Europe’s top competition.

This average is slightly skewed from the 7 attempts he had against Manchester City but Neves is also averaging 1.44 shots per 90 in Ligue 1 this season suggesting he should comfortably cover this line here.”