Blackburn are grimly hanging on to a playoff place at the moment but they are the team that everyone is shooting at and the pressure will be intense for them in this match.

There was something of a bumper crowd at Ewood, by normal Blackburn standards at least, for the Good Friday match against Norwich. A win or even a draw there would’ve solidified Blackburn’s top six claims but Rovers froze and the crowd could not lift the team. It feels as though there may be a mental barrier to jump over for the players, and even the fans to an extent.

It could’ve been even worse for Rovers on Monday but actually, the performance that they put in at Huddersfield was worth all three points and they were fairly unlucky not to get that. However, the defensive lapses that caused them to be two behind cannot be tolerated or repeated if there is a chance of promotion for Tomasson’s men.

Hull were able to capitalise on similar lapses by Sunderland in their last away game to score 4 times at the Stadium of Light, so they will not be intimated about going away to Blackburn here. Whilst this Hull outfit aren’t the most free-flowing in attack, they have generated the 4th lowest xG since the end of the transfer window, but the total xG in their matches is more midtable. This is because, despite having a reputation for keeping it tight since Liam Rosenior took the reigns, they also have the 6th worst xG against data over that period since January 31st.

In the last three Hull away matches both teams have scored, indeed the matches have all ended in score draws, including the remarkable 4-4 at the Stadium of Light. After a period of time where Blackburn were miserly at home, they have conceded to Reading and twice to Norwich in the last two home matches, as well as allowing two sloppy goals at Huddersfield in their last match.

In short, neither team can be trusted to be backed for the win but the prospect of goals is higher than that bookmakers’ goal expectancy might suggest. Even so, I wouldn’t trust either side to run riot. The Over 1.5 goal line is a backable price and Rovers’ last 5 home matches have all surpassed 1.5xG, even in the matches that didn’t cover that line with goals. Indeed, nine out of Hull’s last ten away matches have also gone over that xG line, which suggests that variance could swing around to more goals sooner rather than later.

Rovers’ tactics have evolved over the season. The introduction of Joe Rankin-Costello in December was one of necessity. Previously slated for a loan in January, and, indeed, available for loan in the summer, Rankin-Costello has really taken his opportunity in the side.

Initially used as a more conventional right-back, Tomasson deserves credit for recognising and then facilitating the potential for Rankin-Costello to have more of an effect on matches. Therefore, despite lining up in a right-back position in the defensive block, when Rovers win possession Rankin-Costello has licence to roam, and boy is he getting ambitious with that.

Initially, JRC would move into central midfield to help dominate in there, then he became an auxiliary inside forward on the right-hand side of the attack. Now he is liable to pop up anywhere on the pitch. Nowhere was this more obvious than his goal against Huddersfield on Saturday where Rankin-Costello played a one-two with Tyrhys Dolan to get in on goal in the left channel before lofting it over the keeper with his wrong foot.

That was one of 7(!) shots on target in that match. Whilst that level of output is not expected in every match, Rankin-Costello has been Rovers’ key threat for a few matches in a row now. He has only failed to register a shot once in the last 11 matches and though his strike rate is massively enhanced by that 8-shot, 7 shots on target performance against Huddersfield, he usually gets in enough good positions to allow those shots to be shots on target at an above average rate.

Rankin-Costello is too short for one shot, but two shots is a touch risky for the odds on price too. Getting an odds-against price for one shot on target looks to be the most valuable route to getting Joe Rankin-Costello onside here.

Also in the shooting category, I like the price of Ozan Tufan to get a couple of opportunities. Tufan was the man who fired in the 90+7 penalty in the 4-4 at Sunderland, so there is that angle that he is on penalties.

However, the main reason to like Tufan to get shots off is that he has been playing as a centre forward in the last two matches. In that role he’s been given more time on the pitch, playing the full 90 against Sunderland and 83 minutes against Millwall, and he has taken 5 shots in that time.

Indeed, he has averaged 3 shots per 90 since the beginning of March and whilst Blackburn have a pretty decent defensive record in terms of xG against, they are by no means water-tight. Hull should be able to progress up the pitch and get the Turkish international some chances to shoot.

Tufan has covered the 2 shots or more line in four out of his last five matches and it is this line that is worth backing in our bet builder.

The final addition to the bet is in the fouls category. I was really surprised to see Sammie Szmodics priced up at such a big price to commit just one foul here.

Szmodics is one of Rovers’ run monsters. He covers big distances in each match and one of his primary objectives in this running is to press the opposition. In the midst of doing this Szmodics is the most booked Blackburn player in the last ten matches, and yet he is priced up amongst the outsiders of players to make a foul here.

He is still odds on to do so, but a brief look at his recent record still makes this look like good value. The former Peterborough man has committed at least one foul in five of his last six matches.

Blackburn really need to pick up three points here to solidify their position in the playoffs. If the game is tight or they fall behind then there will be a sense of urgency that could realise itself in desperation to win the ball back. Szmodics is likely to be a key man in this role and backing him for just one foul looks to be a good value play.