2022’s second host third but on early form, it’s unlikely to happen again this year.

KuPS drew a blank at KTP despite having the lion’s share of chances and possession, but without Janis Ikaunieks and Tim Vayrynen, there’s a big drop-off. This game last year was a true game of two halves with KuPS dominating before Honka came out and should have won. Being relatively solid against KTP is a minimum for a side challenging for the title. New centre half Collins Shichenje came on as a late sub after signing from AIK but he seems he might be more needed on the end of set pieces. If Urho Nissila is fit enough to feature and shows the form that had him as a regular in the Finland squad, he’s a real threat from those dead balls.

Honka also managed their first point at the weekend, a goalless draw against SJK in Vantaa (their own ground was not fit to play on). The defence and midfield are still fairly well organised but like KuPS, are missing the two stars of 2022. Modesto was electric at KuPS last year but is now in Sweden. Colombian forward Juan Alegria has returned after an ill-fated spell at Glasgow Rangers (he scored a few on loan at Falkirk) and will be needed to rediscover the form that led to his move in the first place.

Failure to win for either side will see an ever-widening gap from the top, with the ever-distracting Conference League qualifiers looming on the horizon.

Just four days after the sides met in Vaasa, the return fixture takes place in the capital. HJK won 1-0 after dominating but missed a penalty while VPS should have been awarded one themselves.

The winning goal came via a late own goal, Pyry Soiri’s direct run and cross was diverted in by Bashikov, who was otherwise solid and tough. The penalty miss by Radulovic was high after a dawdling run-up, misplaced confidence lost. But the side are top with two wins and two clean sheets. The record should continue in this fixture, after VPS didn’t register a shot on target last week. Injuries continue to plague the squad, with captain Tenho, Hetemaj, and Lingman missing this game. Roope Riski might be fit for the bench and his return would be a huge boost for the club.

VPS meanwhile were timid and are sorely missing some inspiration. Only three shots off-target and what looks like a long season at the foot of the table. Other than KTP, all the other sides tipped to struggle have been at least scoring goals. Evgeniey Bashikov has stepped up from the third tier and looks fine but there’s very little else so far. All three forwards were subbed off in the second half while talismanic skipper Seba Strandvall only came on in the final minute. If he can last a full 90, he might be able to create something. But this return is surely too soon for Vepsu.

A massive game at Ewood Park in the context of the playoff race. Blackburn’s results have been stuttering at best in recent weeks as they continue to hang on to a playoff spot whereas Coventry have been on a fairly steady rise all season after that shocker of a start, mostly through no fault of their own.

Blackburn’s real issue is the lack of genuine goalscorers in the team. Sam Gallagher rotates between leading the line and being used as a wide target-man and has been fairly ineffective in both roles, certainly, there has been little impact on the scoreboard from him in either position, Ben Brereton Diaz’s move to Spain in the summer is practically confirmed but his form post-World Cup has been mediocre at best and none of the other forward players that float in and around the top of the pitch is a player that you would be confident in finishing chances on a regular basis. This includes the likes of Tyrhys Dolan, Ryan Hedges, and Sammie Szmodics.

Coventry do not have that problem. Viktor Gyokeres has been immense for the Sky Blues all season. He has played an incredible number of minutes and been a constant threat for opponents in that time. Whilst he isn’t quite the razor-sharp finisher, his physicality gets him into great positions and generally makes the defenders’ time up against him very difficult physically and mentally. If Callum O’Hare had been fit this season then we could be talking about Coventry already being in the play-off positions.

Coventry haven’t lost in their last seven away matches. Indeed, three of those recent matches were won by 3+ goals, and whilst I don’t expect this match to have quite the gap in terms of winning margin, I am happy to side with Coventry in this match-up.

Rovers have failed to win their last two at home and the natives are getting a bit restless. Despite being in the playoff race, which some would suggest is an above-average performance from this team, the boos rang out around Ewood Park during the 0-0 draw with Hull on Saturday. It may well be that the supporters would like a more direct style of play, especially given the urgency of their position, but Coventry could easily frustrate Blackburn and feed off the restlessness in the air.

Taking the last ten home matches as a sample size, Rovers are only +0.1 in the xG differential, which means that they are not really getting a home advantage in terms of chance creation. Coventry are -0.1xG difference in their last ten away, so again, very little in it over a decent period of time.

The draw is a big runner here and I would like to be with that, but give the edge to Coventry in the win market given the prices and the better goalscoring options.

In terms of pure results, it is hard to look past the Hatters at the moment in terms of form sides in the league. A lot of credit needs to be put in the way of the staff at Luton Town as they have simply continued to build in a steady fashion and perhaps culminating in another play-off campaign. Or could they even push for automatic promotion?

This will be the thoughts of the fans at least as they become the most realistic challengers to Sheffield United for second place. In reality, the gap is probably too big, but Luton will only be trying to look after their own results, and therefore imposing themselves on Reading here is a big priority.

For Luton that means winning individual battles all over the pitch. Carlton Morris did the job again last week in opening the scoring, but it is the central defenders, wing-backs, and midfielders that all win their battles that allows the likes of Morris, and Cauley Woodrow who got himself on the scoresheet as well, to thrive.

With this Luton are also exceptional at keeping the back door closed. They have yet to concede twice in an away game in 2023 and kept another clean sheet on the road at Rotherham on Saturday. That constitutes the 8th Luton away game in a row that went under 2.5 goals.

No goals at all were spotted in the Madejski Stadium on Saturday as they approached the first game without Paul Ince in charge in exactly the same way that they would if Paul Ince were in charge. That made it five in a row at Reading which had gone under 2.5 goals as well.

Combining the records then, Under 2.5 goals simply has to be backed. The likely pattern of the match is set to be a fairly scrappy affair in terms of slick passing moves but both defences will want to play deep so there should be some space for midfield play, which doesn’t necessarily favour either side. This makes the goals play the only real option for a confident bet here.

Prior to April 7, Benfica had lost just one match in all competitions – a 3-0 defeat at Braga on December 30. Since then, they’ve lost three times – a 2-1 loss to Porto, a 2-0 loss to Inter, and a 1-0 loss to Chaves, with Ghanaian striker Issah Abass pouncing on a loose touch from Nicolás Otamendi and scoring the winner in the 94th minute. They entered April with a 10-point lead at the top, before beating Rio Ave 1-0 and falling to three straight defeats. They are now four points clear of Porto in first place, and they will be looking to rebound by overturning two-goal deficit against Inter at the San Siro.

Apart from a 2-1 loss to Spezia on March 10 and a 3-1 win against Udinese on February 18, each of Inter’s last 13 matches have featured under 2.5 goals, with the Nerazzurri having various other low-scoring matches on prior occasions including a 1-0 win against Napoli on January 4, a 1-0 win against Barcelona on October 4, a 2-0 loss to Bayern on November 1 and a 2-0 loss to Juventus on November 6. Inter beat Porto 1-0 via a late winner from Romelu Lukaku before drawing 0-0 in a match that would see Porto have 68% possession and 21 shots to Inter’s 11, but ultimately unable to find a way past Andre Onana in goal.

I’m expecting a similar story here – for the first time since Roger Schmidt’s appointment, Benfica look fatigued, vulnerable, and out of ideas, and they could have a tough time breaking down an Inter side that are capable of soaking up pressure and standing tall against an inspired attack. Benfica registered 20 shots (5 on goal) and a league-record 19 corner kicks, tying the record in Europe’s top 5 leagues this season, but they were unable to find a way past Paulo Vítor in goal. Gonçalo Ramos sits as the joint-top scorer in the Primeira Liga with 17 goals alongside João Mário, but he looked completely out of sorts against an Inter back three that featured Matteo Darmian in a makeshift center back role, and he failed to record a single shot before being hauled off after 80 minutes against Chaves. João Mário, meanwhile, has not found the back of the net since March 18 and was replaced after completing zero out of nine crosses and missing two big chances.

With key players like Ramos, Rafa Silva and Fredrik Aursnes struggling for form at the moment, and with Roger Schmidt’s lack of rotation and thin squad resulting in fatigued performances since the international break, I think Benfica could have a tough time breaking down Inter’s defense and overturning the two-goal deficit. Inter have dropped to fifth in the table due in part to a lack of efficiency up top, with Romelu Lukaku not scoring in open play in Serie A since the first matchday and top scorer Lautaro Martínez not scoring since March 5, but they’ll be looking to counteract their flailing front two with a disciplined defensive performance. I’m expecting a low-scoring match in Milan.