Our EFL experts are back again for this bulging batch of fixtures in the Football League. They’ve found the best value bets for an EFL accumulator in the Championship as well as the final day of the League One and Two season, standing alongside our EFL predictions, our new both teams to score tips, and the rest of our expert football betting tips.
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Saturday’s EFL Accumulator Tips
Exeter v Oxford
Plucky Exeter City have had an excellent second half of the season, pulling away from the relegation battle to give themselves a great chance of securing a top half finish. The Grecians will want to finish strongly at home to seventh-placed Oxford United, with the pressure firmly on the visitors in the top six race.
Yellows could miss out on the play-offs even in victory, as two points separate four teams from fifth to eighth heading into the final day. Oxford were in a very strong position with three to play but a loss to Lincoln City and a draw with Stevenage, both at home, have made things difficult.
Oxford have scored in 80% of their matches this season, while Exeter have found the net in all of their last 11 and have seen both teams score in five of six. Gary Caldwell’s men will be full of confidence in the midst of a nine-game unbeaten run – by far their strongest period of the season – with six wins and three draws.
With the hosts in good form and the pressure on Oxford to take the game to them, the encounter should open up nicely for a both teams to score bet.
Stevenage v Cheltenham
Stevenage have nothing to play for as a very poor run has dragged them away from top six contention. The Boro have won just three of their last 17 league games and more recently one of 11. Hugely successful manager Steve Evans left them last week to join Rotherham United and in their one game since the departure they drew 1-1 at seventh-placed Oxford United.
However, in that 1-1 draw their goal was an own goal, they failed to register a shot on target, lost the shot count 25-2 and the xG battle 2.91-0.15. Showing no signs that their dramatic drop-off is stopping, and, therefore, they are highly opposable on final day and have scored one goal or fewer in 12 of 14 in the league.
Cheltenham Town have everything to play for, if they win and Burton Albion fail to win at Fleetwood Town they will stay up. They would also stay up if they win and Cambridge United lose at Port Vale. It would be one of the greatest escapes in EFL history, with the Robins failing to score in their opening 11 games of the League One season, picking up one point in the process.
With strong leaders and experience in the group, along with a midweek 2-0 win at home to Peterborough United keeping them alive, they are a bet here despite motivation already being factored into the odds.
Sheffield Wednesday v West Brom
Both teams are still fighting to gather points for their end-of-season goals as Sheffield Wednesday play West Brom at Hillsborough on Saturday afternoon.
Wednesday did themselves a huge favour with a win at Blackburn last Sunday and that makes it four unbeaten in the league now for Danny Röhl’s Owls. Indeed, Sheffield Wednesday’s form in this relegation battle has been generally good, albeit mostly against the teams around them.
West Brom are stumbling towards the finishing line. They should still make it into the play-offs, but they are now level on points with Norwich, with Hull the only likely disruptors three points back.
The Baggies’ performance data over the last ten matches has them in the bottom half of the league, while Wednesday are in ninth for expected points over the same time frame.
Wednesday’s home form over the last ten Championship games has seen them lose only twice at Hillsborough. The last three matches have only been draws, but even a draw would be enough to see this bet land.
West Brom have only two victories themselves in their last ten Championship matches. Again, this means that eight of their last ten away matches would see this bet land.
A point will probably be fairly useful for both sides, but Wednesday would definitely have their fate in their own hands come the final day at worst, and could even secure survival with a win here. Röhl has proven that he can set up a team from a tactical perspective and his players seem to have a great understanding of what he wants from them.
Southampton v Stoke
Goals are on the cards in Southampton v Stoke City on Saturday.
Southampton’s performance, or lack thereof, at Leicester on Tuesday night was shocking to see. They had their moments in attack and probably should’ve scored themselves, but Leicester clearly had a greater intensity in their play than the Saints.
Russell Martin was clearly, and understandably, not best pleased after the match, and one would hope that he would be able to get a reaction out of his players after that. However, our bet doesn’t rely on that, and if they are as lethargic as they were on Tuesday that would very much suit a reinvigorated Stoke City side who travel to St. Mary’s looking to stay clear of potential relegation.
Steven Schumacher has almost certainly completed the job that he was brought in for this season. The convincing nature of their 3-0 win over Plymouth last weekend and the attacking vigour that they have demonstrated in recent weeks is what gives extra confidence to this bet.
Five of Stoke’s last eight have seen over 2.5 goals, and they have scored in 12 of their last 14 away matches in the Championship.
Southampton have seen all of their last five matches go over 2.5 goals, and 12 of their last 14 have done the same.
The Saints have a very strong home record, both in results and in performances. They are running at a +1.1 xG differential, meaning that they are creating over 1 xG worth of chances more than their opponents over their last ten home matches. This can only bode well for a goals bet as well.
MK Dons v Sutton
Only three points give Sutton any chance of avoiding relegation on the final day of the League Two season. They also require Crewe to do them a favour v Colchester. However, Steve Morison’s side would rather face somewhat easier opposition than having to travel to MK Dons. Granted, MK Dons will finish the season in fourth spot no matter what, but they’ll certainly want to continue their good run of form heading into the play-offs.
Sutton themselves have produced solid results recently, where they’ve lost just once in seven league encounters, however, they’re winless versus any team positioned in the top-eight all season. Also, their away record against those positioned first to 11th reads two draws and eight losses. The visitors concede an average of approximately 2.10 goals per away league game and they face a more superior opponent, who averages exactly two goals per home league match.
MK have scored two or more goals in 21 of their 23 League Two victories across the campaign. The match will become more stretched if Sutton don’t score first and even if the strugglers did then they’d likely face big pressure – and such that they’d have issues trying to contain.
Wrexham v Stockport
There is officially nothing riding on this battle at STōK Cae Ras when league champions Stockport make the relatively short journey to Wrexham. Therefore, this opens the door to an exciting, end-to-end encounter as opposed to the more likely cagey and tactical affair if something was on the line. These are two very high-tempo teams that play aggressively on the front foot and this could easily turn into a case of simply trying to outscore the other team.
Over the league season as a whole, goals have followed both clubs. County are just five goals short of 100 league goals, whereas The Red Dragons comfortably top the tally for being the highest home league goalscorers. Based on the previous four respective league fixtures for the two sides, Wrexham’s have averaged 4.25 goals per game, whereas Stockport have 4.5.
There will still be a motivation aspect in terms of wanting to beat a strong opponent, so they’ll each look to produce one last big effort before heading to the beach. A sold-out stadium and the general spice between these two promotion rivals should ensure neither outfit coasts through this final match.
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