Blackburn are struggling in front of goal at the moment. Their 0-2 defeat at home to Stoke made it four matches in a row that they have failed to score in.

The early season optimism for Rovers is giving way to real concern in the fanbase. Rovers are still in ninth, which is a more than acceptable position for Rovers to be in, but given the tightness of the league, their 19 points are only four points off the relegation zone and only three points off the play-offs.

A Cardiff win would put them only one point behind Rovers. Their run of good form was halted in midweek with a narrow loss to Luton but it is their home form which makes them an attractive bet here. They have won four in a row at home, which, combined with Rovers’ away form makes the Bluebirds look a good bet.

That away form reads six played, three draws, and three defeats for Blackburn. The three defeats are the most recent away matches, and although the performances haven’t been terrible, there has been very little cutting edge. The last away match against Watford was the first time that Rovers created more than 1 xG in an away match, but their out-of-form forwards were unable to convert any of their chances.

This was again the case at home to Stoke. 2.78 xG was created, but no goals. Whilst this goalless streak is likely to snap at some stage soon, the form lines between Cardiff’s home form, Blackburn’s away form and the way that the fan bases are feeling, despite the start that both teams had to the season, make it difficult to believe that Rovers are in position to win here.

Derby have acquitted themselves increasingly well in their return to the second tier with their first away win of the season coming in midweek against Coventry as proof of that.

The Rams had already done enough, especially in their home matches, to suggest that they were rightful favourites for this game. They have won four of their six home matches, and despite now having played eight away matches, sit in midtable.

Indeed, Derby’s recent form reads well, with only one defeat in their last six, away at Stoke, and whilst there are three draws in there, it suggests that they are competitive in every fixture, certainly against the majority of teams in the league.

Plymouth have an abysmal away record. Only one goal scored so far this season in seven away matches and failing to register a single shot against Leeds in their last away game. They will fancy their chances to be more successful in this match, but Derby at Pride Park are still a force to be reckoned with.

It isn’t just the failure against Leeds which is a concern for Plymouth. Wayne Rooney’s side have consistently failed to be threatening away from home. They haven’t managed to create 1 xG in any of their seven away matches, their one goal came at fellow strugglers QPR with a low-quality chance.

Derby know their skills and they are set up to play to their strengths. Against the poorest team on the road in the division, they are right to be odds on to win this and if they convert their chances then they should win this.

Leeds are doing a remarkable job of looking very much like the best team in the division without actually managing to get the points that would usually come with that accolade.

This seems to be a long-running issue given that they also finished third last season, despite having the best performance data, going unbeaten for a long period, and beating their main rivals in their head-to-head matches.

However, it is mainly their away results that are tripping them up this season. At Elland Road, they have won five out of seven, including their last four in a row, and they have won the xG battle comfortably in all seven of the matches.

Indeed, digging deeper into those performances, the remarkable statistic is that in every home match in the Championship this season Leeds have created over 1 xG and conceded less than 1 xG, so they have always kept their opposition suppressed to the tune of less than an expected goal per game.

Whilst this doesn’t always convert to a clean sheet, they have kept the opposition scoreless in four home matches, whilst Leeds have scored in six of seven. Indeed, they didn’t even concede a single shot against Plymouth last weekend.

So this is a big task for QPR, who have been far short of their best this season. Recruitment doesn’t seem to have worked out at this stage as none of the new arrivals have made a big impact, and, with Michael Frey continuing to be out with injury, Rangers are struggling to score enough goals.

Whilst this was an issue last season as well, Marti Cifuentes was able to keep the defence sound enough to get the points required to get them to safety. This hasn’t been the case this season and despite a reversion to those ideals in recent weeks, it will be tough to keep Leeds at bay.

QPR conceded four to Middlesbrough, from over 2 xG in midweek, which demonstrates how tough it can be against the better teams in the league.

Leeds have covered the 1.5 goal line by themselves in six of their seven home matches, and five of QPRs six away games have also gone over 1.5 goals.

Norwich failed to score in midweek, but that is only the second time that they have failed to trouble the scorers in a league game this season.

They did have the ball in the net on Tuesday when Borja Sainz scored from an offside position, but they are going to be missing Josh Sargent, as well as many other first-teamers. This has certainly made Norwich weaker, and the concession of goals is becoming a big concern, though it does help this bet.

Norwich have scored in every home match this season, including four in the EFL Cup, and they are averaging 2.5 goals for every home game. Overall, Norwich are joint first in the league for goals and fourth for xGF, so despite their absences the style of play and focus from Johannes Hoff Thorup is on going forwards and scoring goals.

Bristol City are on the verge of being a really good Championship team. They seem to come up short sometimes against the best teams, but they were pretty unlucky to get nothing from hosting Sheffield United in midweek. They were the better side for swathes of the game but failed to hold on.

Before that defeat the Robins had gone eight matches unbeaten, including away wins at Preston and Middlesbrough, and away draws at Swansea and Stoke, scoring in each of those four most recent away games. Three of their last five have seen both teams score.

Norwich have had BTTS in four of their last five as well, so this looks like a really good chance for it to happen again.

It has to be frustrating for John Mousinho and his players at this stage as Pompey are very competitive in the vast majority of their games, but there appears to be a lack of composure, experience, or just pure quality to turn decent performances into points.

The midweek clash at Plymouth is a case in point. They dominated the game for the first hour or so, but couldn’t get in front. The fact that they ended up paying for it by conceding a late winner to Michael Obafemi is not only typical of Plymouth and their home form but also Portsmouth’s difficulties in keeping Championship teams at bay.

They have only kept two clean sheets this season, and they are languishing, alongside Plymouth, at the bottom of the xGA table, having conceded 23.8 xG in their 14 matches so far, conceding 27 goals, the most in the league.

Preston have been dragged back into the relegation fight, albeit the whole Championship table is very tight at the moment. Their goalless draw against Sunderland was a fairly unfortunate one, especially from a Preston perspective, as they played well and created 1.6 xG, containing three big chances in their 14 shots.

Preston’s last away trip to the south coast saw them go 3-0 up against Plymouth before conceding three to draw the game. Whilst it would be churlish to expect a repeat of that here, Preston are showing themselves capable of a higher consistent level of performance than Portsmouth and they have avoided defeat in six of their last seven matches.

Portsmouth have not won a home game yet this season, drawing three and losing the other three. Indeed, the draw is likely to be a big runner here with 12 of Preston and Portsmouth’s combined 28 matches ending in draws.