Across all competitions, Mohamed Salah has made 12 appearances for Liverpool this season, not once failing to hit the target on at least one occasion. In the league, he’s averaging 2.07 shots on target per 90. Although Liverpool haven’t had the toughest of matches, those do include games against Man United, Chelsea, Milan, and RB Leipzig.

You might be quick to assume that Arsenal’s defence will be superior to that of all those teams but in actual fact, they’ve conceded at least two shots on goal in every game this season, rising to 11 against Man City and 5 against Tottenham. Their makeshift backline will be without Saliba, Calafiori and possibly Timber so from the perspective of a forward, now is as good a time as ever to play the Gunners.

Szoboszlai has shown remarkable consistency in the fouling department this season and offers excellent value here once more.

Szoboszlai has sinned at least once in all of his eight league games this season, averaging 1.57 fouls per 90. Across all competitions including matches for Hungary, he’s slipped up in 14 out of 15 games.

Based on the way Arsenal have set up in previous games against top-sides, he’s likely to be playing in a very congested midfield, specifically coming up against Merino who averaged 2.21 fouls won per 90 in La Liga last season.

Despite earning mixed minutes, Diaz has managed to fire off two or more shots on five occasions this season, contributing to an average of 3.22 per 90. Given Jota’s injury, it’s highly likely he’ll start, and should last some time on the pitch, if not the full 90.

This average is pretty in line with what we’ve come to expect from the Colombian international who finished last season firing off 3.20 per 90 in the league.

Last time around, Diaz came on with just 25 minutes to play against Chelsea but nonetheless took two shots.

With Arsenal’s defence averaging 14.38 shots conceded per game, this selection stands a really strong chance of winning, particularly given Liverpool pose a much greater offensive threat than most of the opposition sides that contributed to that average.

This seems to have been very generously priced with the bookmakers perhaps putting too much weight on Arsenal’s 6.75 average.

When you break that down a bit, a remarkable 56% of those came against newly promoted Leicester and Southampton. In the absence of those games, Arsenal’s average falls to just four per 90.

They also managed just nine corners combined In their tougher matches against Man City, Tottenham, and Aston Villa.

Liverpool are averaging 4.00 corners conceded per 90 and have only once allowed more than five.

Gabriel has fired off 12 shots in his  8 games this season, having a crack at least once in seven of those games. His chances primarily come from free kicks and corners of which Arsenal should get plenty.

Liverpool are as short as 1.44 to commit 11 or more fouls, whilst the bookies expect Arsenal to win a decent number of corners, pricing them at 1.5 to have 5 or more.

In addition to his matches at club level, Gabriel has also had a shot in each of his last three games for Brazil, the last two both coming in the most recent international break.

We’ve seen Arsenal rely on set-pieces in big clashes against Tottenham and Man City already this season with Gabriel getting on the scoresheet in both.

David Raya has been forced into making three or more saves in five of Arsenal’s eight games this season, only failing to do so against Bournemouth, Southampton and Leicester. In two of those games, Arsenal conceded two goals, implying this is by no means thanks to a watertight defence.

Since then, they’ve lost at minimum Saliba and Calafiori, and possibly Timber to injury/suspension, leaving Arteta with the daunting prospect of tasking Zinchenko with defending against Salah. The alternative would be Kiwior who’s looked similarly vulnerable and was at fault for conceding a penalty last time out against Bournemouth.

Liverpool have found themselves thwarted by the opposition keeper at least three times in seven of their eight league games this season including each of the last five.

Salah has been in incredible form this season, totalling 10 league goal contributions already –  an average of 1.3 per 90. He’s managed at least one in six of his eight league games and most recently scored and assisted against Chelsea.

In 16 games against Arsenal, Salah has scored 10 goals and created 2 assists, with his first goal coming as far back as 2014 when he came off the bench to score Chelsea’s sixth and final goal in their 6-0 thrashing of Arsenal.

Depending on if Timber has recovered in time, Salah will likely face Zinchenko in left-back – a story we’ve seen once or twice before and one that doesn’t tend to flatter the Ukrainian.

Four of Liveprool’s last five domestic clashes have produced over 2.5 goals although they’ve had to do the bulk of the work themselves, scoring 14 out of the 17 goals that found the back of the net.

Arsenal’s aforementioned defensive absentees will surely contribute to Liverpool’s chances in this affair, but may also alter Arteta’s gameplan, incentivising a more attack-minded approach, in the knowledge that they’re unlikely to be able to shut Liverpool out.

Three of Arsenal’s last four league games have seen over 2.5 goals scored meanwhile over the course of the season they’ve produced an average of 3.62 expected goals per 90. If they manage to keep 11 men on the pitch they should pose just as big a threat as Liverpool.