Dutch Eredivisie Betting Tips

This is a meeting that regularly produces goals, each of the last seven head to head clashes - stretching back to 2023 - have seen BTTS.

The most recent clash saw Rosenborg come away 2-1 winners as the home side, generating an xG of 2.08 to Sarpsborg’s 0.91. The meeting prior to that also saw BTTS & No Draw, with Sarpsborg getting the better of Rosenborg in that clash with a 3-2 victory.

Recent form is also promising for this angle, Rosenborg have seen BTTS in four of their last five matches with three of these games seeing BTTS & No Draw. Rosenborg have only drawn four of their 22 league games this term, with only one of their 10 away games ending level.

There’s a similar pattern with Sarpsborg’s home games as well, only three of their 10 games have ended level with 24 goals across these games - perfectly split by goals scored and goals conceded. 

Groningen have started the season quite well compared to their pre-season expectations, losing just two of their opening eight matches which has left them just one point behind Ajax ahead of this clash.

Ajax fell to a surprising 2-1 defeat to Hajduk Split during the week, marking the fifth consecutive game where Ajax have seen BTTS. Three of these games have ended in BTTS & No Draw, so it’s clear that Ajax are frequently in high scoring matches.

Groningen have scored nine goals across their four home games so far this term, so I think they’ll have enough firepower to trouble an Ajax backline that has failed to keep a clean sheet across their last six matches.

Fatigue could also play a part here, Ajax had to travel to Croatia during the week while Groningen had a whole week to recover following their 5-1 thrashing of Excelsior on the road. 

Valerenga have seen BTTS in four of their last five matches, seeing BTTS & No Draw in three of these games - including their most recent assignment as they lost 2-1 to KFUM on the road.

That game saw them register an xG of 1.70 from 22 shots despite the defeat, but they did allow KFUM to generate an xG of 2.04 themselves despite taking eight fewer shots than their opponents.

Valerenga are used to being a bit open at the back, they have failed to keep a clean sheet across their last 25 matches. That opens the door for Brann, who have scored 19 goals across their 10 away games this term, to contribute to the overall goal tally.

Each of the last four head to head meetings between these sides, all taking place since 2025, have seen BTTS & No Draw. The most recent clash saw Valerenga come away 3-2 winners with the sides combining to produce an xG of 5.37.

Nijmegen have seen BTTS in each of their last three matches, with all three of these games ending 1-1.

Nijmegen faced an xG against of 1.0 or higher in all three of these matches, suggesting that there is an issue with their defensive structure that opposition sides are starting to work out following their incredible season last year.

They are yet to win a home game in the Eredivisie this season, though their four games have produced 13 goals (3.25 per game). 

Fortuna Sittard actually boast the second strongest away record of any side in the Eredivisie, winning three of their four games on the road so far this term. They’ve scored nine goals across these games, conceding six, and only one of these games has ended level. 

Fiorentina have the 3rd-worst defence in Serie A, conceding 14 goals in six games without keeping a single clean sheet.

They're up against the team that takes more shots than anyone else in the league.

Como are averaging 22.67 shots per game and 1.69 xG away from home.

Nico Paz has taken more shots than any other player in Serie A, with 31 attempts, and he's expected to start for Como.

But there's some good news for Fiorentina too. Como have conceded in all four of their away games, while Fiorentina are averaging 1.77 xG at home.

Their defence might not inspire much confidence, but Fiorentina's attack is starting to look better.

They've scored in their last four games, there's a good chance we'll see goals at both ends.

Leverkusen and Freiburg have scored in all five of their Bundesliga games this season.

They're also joint-3rd for goals scored, with 14 each.

Leverkusen have now scored in 17 Bundesliga games in a row. The last time they failed to find the net was back in February against Union Berlin.

Their main man is Patrik Schick, who's scored in all five games so far this season and is the league's top scorer.

But don't overlook the visitors. Freiburg are top of the table and averaging 2.04 xG and 19 shots per game away from home.

Suzuki is suspended, but Matanović and Eggestein are both available. They've both scored three goals this season, so Freiburg still have plenty of firepower.

Groningen have scored at least twice in all four of their home games, averaging 1.75 xG and 19 shots per match.

They're 6th in the Eredivisie, but their defence is what's been holding them back.

Both teams have scored in 88% of Groningen's games. Groningen have found the net in all eight matches but conceded in seven of them.

Ajax have a similar problem. They've got the 3rd-best attack in the league with 22 goals, but they've also conceded in their last five games.

Van Bergen and Willumsson have scored 10 goals between them for Groningen, while Ajax have Arokodare and Brandt, who've scored four each.

With all four expected to play, I expect to see BTTS land.

These two met less than three months ago, and what a game that was.

It finished 3–2, with 35 shots and a combined 5.28 xG.

This time, Vålerenga are at home, but they've been pretty poor defensively there.

They've scored in eight of their 11 home games, but they've only managed one clean sheet, conceding an average of 1.7 goals per match.

Brann have the 4th-best away attack in the league, scoring 19 goals in 10 games, they've also conceded in eight of those matches.

With both teams looking so shaky at the back, there's a good chance we'll see goals at both ends again, just like we did in July.

Gladbach are bottom of the Bundesliga with the worst defence in the league.

So far, their only real positive has been their attack at home.

They've scored three goals in both of their home games.

However, they've conceded four each time, losing both matches 4–3.

Hoffenheim are just one place above them and haven't managed a single clean sheet either.

Their defence is one of the main reasons they're sitting second from bottom.

Both teams have scored in five of Hoffenheim's games, and they've already conceded 13 goals in the Bundesliga.

Gladbach are averaging 2.94 xG at home, while Hoffenheim are averaging 1.81 xG away.

With both defences looking this poor, it's hard to imagine either attack failing to score here.

NEC Nijmegen can score against some of the best defences in the Eredivisie, but they also can't keep a clean sheet against the weakest attacks.

They've scored against league leaders Feyenoord and Ajax, but they've also conceded in every single league game.

They couldn't even keep a clean sheet against PEC Zwolle, who've scored just six goals all season.

That explains why both teams have scored in 100% of NEC's home games, with five goals scored and eight conceded in four matches.

Fortuna have scored in all four of their away games, including a 2–2 draw against PSV. But they're also allowing 19 shots per game.

NEC's shaky defence and the number of chances Fortuna give away make BTTS look like a sensible play in this one.

Malmo home matches have been crazy. They’ve scored 25 in 12 but also conceded 20, an average of 3.75 per game with 10 of the 12 landing for over 2.5.

They have averaged 1.89 xG, a considerable jump from 1.46 on the road.

Hacken have netted 21 away goals, which can only be bettered by league leaders Sirius.

Given that Malmo have kept just three home clean sheets, this should be a high-scoring affair.

Over to the Netherlands. The Eredivisie has averaged a massive 3.74 goals per match after eight games.

7 out of 8 Groningen games have hit for over 2.5 and only the traditional big three have outscored them this season.

Ajax’s 22 goals scored is impressive and they’re good on the road, averaging 2.40 xG and winning all four games by an 11-1 aggregate score.

We're 5 games into the Bundesliga season and there’s been 25 goals in Gladbach’s games.

They can’t defend, shipping 18 already and averaging 2.10 xGA.

But they do create chances. They’ve averaged 2.22 xG in home games.

Every Hoffenheim game this season has had three or more goals and despite being second-bottom have averaged 2.02 xG and scored 9 in 5.

These two have produced similar numbers, with 3.38 and 3.62 average match goals, respectively.

BTTS has hit in 7 out of 8 for NEC and 6 out of 8 for Sittard.

Sittard have been lucky, their xGA is hideous - an average of 2.23 per match.

NEC have been unlucky if anything, their xG at home has averaged out at 1.87. If it clicks, they could do some serious damage.