Dutch Eredivisie Betting Tips

Over to the Netherlands. The Eredivisie has averaged a massive 3.74 goals per match after eight games.

7 out of 8 Groningen games have hit for over 2.5 and only the traditional big three have outscored them this season.

Ajax’s 22 goals scored is impressive and they’re good on the road, averaging 2.40 xG and winning all four games by an 11-1 aggregate score.

Groningen have scored at least twice in all four of their home games, averaging 1.75 xG and 19 shots per match.

They're 6th in the Eredivisie, but their defence is what's been holding them back.

Both teams have scored in 88% of Groningen's games. Groningen have found the net in all eight matches but conceded in seven of them.

Ajax have a similar problem. They've got the 3rd-best attack in the league with 22 goals, but they've also conceded in their last five games.

Van Bergen and Willumsson have scored 10 goals between them for Groningen, while Ajax have Arokodare and Brandt, who've scored four each.

With all four expected to play, I expect to see BTTS land.

Groningen have started the season quite well compared to their pre-season expectations, losing just two of their opening eight matches which has left them just one point behind Ajax ahead of this clash.

Ajax fell to a surprising 2-1 defeat to Hajduk Split during the week, marking the fifth consecutive game where Ajax have seen BTTS. Three of these games have ended in BTTS & No Draw, so it’s clear that Ajax are frequently in high scoring matches.

Groningen have scored nine goals across their four home games so far this term, so I think they’ll have enough firepower to trouble an Ajax backline that has failed to keep a clean sheet across their last six matches.

Fatigue could also play a part here, Ajax had to travel to Croatia during the week while Groningen had a whole week to recover following their 5-1 thrashing of Excelsior on the road. 

These two have produced similar numbers, with 3.38 and 3.62 average match goals, respectively.

BTTS has hit in 7 out of 8 for NEC and 6 out of 8 for Sittard.

Sittard have been lucky, their xGA is hideous - an average of 2.23 per match.

NEC have been unlucky if anything, their xG at home has averaged out at 1.87. If it clicks, they could do some serious damage.

NEC Nijmegen can score against some of the best defences in the Eredivisie, but they also can't keep a clean sheet against the weakest attacks.

They've scored against league leaders Feyenoord and Ajax, but they've also conceded in every single league game.

They couldn't even keep a clean sheet against PEC Zwolle, who've scored just six goals all season.

That explains why both teams have scored in 100% of NEC's home games, with five goals scored and eight conceded in four matches.

Fortuna have scored in all four of their away games, including a 2–2 draw against PSV. But they're also allowing 19 shots per game.

NEC's shaky defence and the number of chances Fortuna give away make BTTS look like a sensible play in this one.

Nijmegen have seen BTTS in each of their last three matches, with all three of these games ending 1-1.

Nijmegen faced an xG against of 1.0 or higher in all three of these matches, suggesting that there is an issue with their defensive structure that opposition sides are starting to work out following their incredible season last year.

They are yet to win a home game in the Eredivisie this season, though their four games have produced 13 goals (3.25 per game). 

Fortuna Sittard actually boast the second strongest away record of any side in the Eredivisie, winning three of their four games on the road so far this term. They’ve scored nine goals across these games, conceding six, and only one of these games has ended level.