Joao Pedro has surprised me quite a bit this season, I was adamant that he couldn’t play as a number nine but his underlying numbers this season and performances under Rosenior suggest that Joao Pedro does have the capability to lead the line for a club like Chelsea.

My main worries with Pedro were his shot volume and physicality, both areas of his game that have improved this season. He’s already had more shots (52-47) and scored more goals (11-10) in the Premier League this season than he did for Brighton last term with the Brazilian maintaining an average of 2.26 shots per 90. 22 of his 52 efforts have found the target, working out to an average of 0.96 shots on target per 90.

I thought Joao Pedro was excellent against Arsenal last time out and pretty much did all the attacking work for Chelsea on his own. He had four shots in that game, with two attempts finding the target. Joao Pedro also scored and had two shots on target when these sides met earlier in the campaign.

Amadou Onana should be in for a feisty midfield battle here against the trio of Enzo Fernandez, Moises Caicedo and Andrey Santos. I think the best word to describe Chelsea’s midfield set up at the moment is frenzied, this trio of midfielders isn’t actually that balanced end I think Chelsea may struggle to actually control games with all three in the same side.

Someone like Romeo Lavia would balance out the Chelsea midfield a bit more, but while they are opting for this current trio it makes the midfield a real battleground. Onana was fouled twice in Aston Villa’s 2-0 defeat to Wolves last time out, and has drawn 22 fouls across his 16 starts in the Premier League this season (1.53 per 90).

One thing which stood out to me straight away when looking back through the recent head to head meetings between these sides is how high Chelsea’s foul count has been against Aston Villa. This isn’t really a surprise as Villa are the most fouled side in the league, with Chelsea committing 16, 16 and 21 fouls across their last three head to head clashes with Unai Emery’s side.

This selection ties in with the fact that Villa have won more fouls than any other side in the Premier League this season, and have been particularly strong when it comes to drawing fouls from Chelsea with the Blues committing 53 fouls across the last three head to head meetings (17.6 per game).

I feel like I’ve been banging the drum about Chelsea’s petulance for months now and the club don’t seem to take it as a serious issue. Pedro Neto’s red card against Arsenal last time out was the ninth red card that Chelsea have picked up this season - they are on course to pick up at least three more red cards before the season is out if they continue at this rate.

Chelsea picked up five yellow cards from their foul count of 16 when these sides met earlier in the season, with Liam Rosenior’s side collecting 65 yellow cards overall in the Premier League (2.32 per game). This is a massive game for Chelsea too, if they were to lose it would represent four games without a win in the Premier League and deal a massive blow to their chances of a Champions League finish so I can see tempers flaring at times.

One of Chelsea’s most standout traits this season has been making more of corners and set pieces. They racked up 10 corners in their 2-1 defeat to Arsenal over the weekend, also getting their goal through this avenue as Reece James forced Piero Hincapie to head into his own net.

Chelsea have scored 10 of their 49 goals in the Premier League from set pieces (20%), so it is clearly an avenue that the Blues look to when they are struggling from open play. Chelsea registered six corners in their 2-1 defeat to Aston Villa earlier in the season, and are averaging 6.00 corners per game in the Premier League this season.

This average drops slightly, but still above the line we require, when looking at their away matches in the Premier League this term with Chelsea averaging 5.00 corners per game across their 14 away matches. Chelsea have excellent delivery from these corners too, so I wouldn’t rule out Chelsea managing to score a goal again from these set play situations. 

Enzo Fernandez seems to have a bit of a grudge against Aston Villa. He’s committed 4+ fouls in each of the last three head to head meetings between the sides, committing six fouls in one of these games, and being shown a yellow card in two of them.

The most recent meeting between the sides saw Chelsea commit 16 fouls, with Fernandez responsible for a quarter of these. He contested 14 duels in that game, and should get just as stuck in this time around given that Villa are the most fouled side in the Premier League this season.

Villa’s ability to win fouls lines up quite well with Chelsea’s ill-discipline and petulance which we saw last time out as Chelsea picked up their ninth red card of the season - equalling the tally for the most red cards in a Premier League season with 10 games left to play.

Chelsea have committed 16+ fouls in each of the last three head to head meetings between these sides, with one of these games seeing the Blues commit 21 fouls. 

Fernandez has committed 29 fouls across his 26 starts in the Premier League this season, working out to an average of 1.12 fouls committed per 90. It’s clear that Fernandez is more involved off the ball against Villa and I back him to maintain his high foul count when facing up against Unai Emery’s side.

Morgan Rogers was hauled down twice when these sides met earlier in the season and has maintained an average of 1.30 fouls won per 90 across his 28 Premier League starts this term.

Rogers was also fouled twice when Chelsea last visited Villa Park, with the Blues committing 16 fouls in that clash. Rogers can operate in central and wide areas, often drifting between those two roles - making him an ideal candidate to draw at least two fouls from a very aggressive and occasionally petulant Chelsea side.

Chelsea are averaging 11.3 fouls committed per game in the Premier League this season, only four sides have committed more fouls than the Blues in the English top flight. It is pretty notable that Chelsea have exceeded this foul average in each of the last three head to head meetings between these sides.

Aston Villa have won more fouls than any other side in the Premier League this season, drawing 361 fouls across their 28 Premier League matches (12.8 per game). This game is massive for both sides too, with both in a tight race for a spot in the Champions League next season so there should be moments where tempers flare. 

One of Chelsea’s most standout traits this season has been making more of corners and set pieces. They racked up 10 corners in their 2-1 defeat to Arsenal over the weekend, also getting their goal through this avenue as Reece James forced Piero Hincapie to head into his own net.

Chelsea have scored 10 of their 49 goals in the Premier League from set pieces (20%), so it is clearly an avenue that the Blues look to when they are struggling from open play. Chelsea registered six corners in their 2-1 defeat to Aston Villa earlier in the season, and are averaging 6.00 corners per game in the Premier League this season.

This average drops slightly, but still above the line we require, when looking at their away matches in the Premier League this term with Chelsea averaging 5.00 corners per game across their 14 away matches. Chelsea have excellent delivery from these corners too, so I wouldn’t rule out Chelsea managing to score a goal again from these set play situations. 

Man City were able to hold on to a 1-0 win against Leeds on Saturday evening. It wasn’t the most convincing performance from Pep Guardiola’s side, but it extended their winning streak in the Premier League to four matches, keeping the pressure on Arsenal at the top. Man City have been able to grind out results even when they are not at their best, which is a great sign for them as we approach the run-in. 

They are building momentum at a key stage of the season, and Man City look like a tough side to beat at the moment. Nottingham Forest, by contrast, come into this clash in a far more fragile position. They were beaten by Brighton at the Amex Stadium last time out, making it three losses in a row across all competitions. Despite trailing from the 15th minute, Forest only managed 13 shots worth just 0.79 xG.

Brighton are one of the most ill-disciplined sides in the Premier League, collecting 68 yellow cards across their 28 matches (2.42 per game). Only Tottenham (71) have picked up more cards than Brighton in the Premier League this season, setting the Seagulls up well to pick up at least 2+ cards in this crucial game in the title race.

It’s not totally surprising that Brighton rank high for fouls and cards in the Premier League this season, they have one of the youngest squads in the league and are managed by the youngest manager in the division so the Seagulls can struggle when it comes to restraint. 

They picked up three yellow cards when they faced Arsenal earlier on in the season, from a foul count of 13, and I think they’ll be antagonised enough by the league leaders to pick up at least two cautions in this clash. 

Newcastle have seen 3+ goals in each of their last five matches across all competitions, and have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 11 games - promising another goal heavy affair at St James’ Park when the most exciting team in the Premier League visit.

Manchester United have been very impressive under Michael Carrick so far, and saw 3+ goals last time out as they came from behind to beat Crystal Palace 1-0. United have seen 45 goals across their 14 away matches in the Premier League this season, working out to an average of 3.21 goals per game. They should be full of confidence given their strong recent form, and can punish a Newcastle side who are far from secure at the back.

Eddie Howe’s side have seen 49 goals across their 14 matches at St James’ Park this season (3.5 goals per game), notably already conceding more goals at home this season (23) than they did across the entirety of last season (20). This highlights the defensive issues that Newcastle have battled with all campaign, and should lead to another frenzied evening at St James’ Park.