Atletico Madrid are worthy favourites on Saturday night, and while I expect them to get the win, the visitors look excellent value to score at least once.

Deportivo have proved a tough nut to crack during the opening stretch of the La Liga season, losing just twice across their first nine matches.

Notably, Antonio Hidalgo’s side have scored in eight of those games, including each of their four road trips so far, netting multiple goals on visits to both Villarreal and Real Sociedad.

That should give the visitors confidence at the Metropolitano, particularly as Atletico have failed to keep a clean sheet in five of their nine league matches this term, including two of their last three at home. 

Diego Simeone’s men also face a quick turnaround after Tuesday night’s 1-1 draw with Stuttgart, so Deportivo should be the fresher side and look well placed to make their mark at the Metropolitano.

Over 9.5 corners should be well within range when Atletico Madrid host Deportivo on Saturday night, with the hosts likely to do most of the heavy lifting.

Diego Simeone’s side have averaged 6.33 corners per game in La Liga this season, a tally that ranks among the top six in the division.

More notably, Atleti have cleared the over 9.5 line on their own in each of their last two league games, and they also forced 8 flag kicks in last month’s home victory over Osasuna.

Further encouragement comes from their midweek 1-1 draw with Stuttgart, which featured 13 corners.

Deportivo should contribute to the count too, with their La Liga matches producing an average of 10.89 corners this season and the visitors averaging 5.22 themselves.

It’s also worth noting that the Blue and Whites have won 4 or more corners in all but one of their four league games away from home, so they should help push the total beyond 9.5.

The Atletico Madrid winger has been one of the club’s standout performers this season, scoring 5 goals in nine La Liga appearances and netting the winner away at Espanyol last weekend.

His shot output has been particularly eye-catching, with an average of 3.41 attempts per game in the Spanish top flight this term.

A closer look shows Baena has had at least 2 shots in six of his last seven La Liga appearances.

On top of that, he took 3 shots against Manchester United at home and 2 away to Liverpool in the Champions League. 

Atletico are expected to enjoy the lion’s share of possession and take the game to Deportivo, so Baena should have ample opportunity to get at least 2 shots away.

What’s more, Deportivo have conceded just under 13 shots per game on average in La Liga this season, further strengthening the case for Baena to register 2+ attempts.

Luismi Cruz looks well placed to commit at least one foul against Atletico Madrid on Saturday night.

The Deportivo midfielder has been a regular on the referee’s radar this season, averaging 2.61 fouls per game.

A closer look shows that Cruz has committed at least 1 foul in each of the seven league games he has started this season, overstepping the mark on multiple occasions in 4 of those contests.

Deportivo will almost certainly have plenty of defensive work to get through here, so there should be plenty of scope for Cruz to be penalised at least once.

Usually deployed on the right-hand side of the Blue and Whites’ midfield, he could be in direct battle with Alex Grimaldo, who has been fouled 4 times across his last three La Liga appearances for Atletico.