Leeds’ form has been a mixed bag over the last few games, and they were able to pull off an impressive comeback at Stamford Bridge last time out. Before that, Daniel Farke's side cruised past Nottingham Forest at Elland Road, winning that game 3-1.

Leeds also had no trouble against Championship side Derby in the previous FA Cup round, as they secured a comprehensive 3-1 victory on their travels against the Rams. Leeds racked up 22 shots worth 3.12 xG - if not for Jacob Zetterstrom’s eight saves, the scoreline really could have gotten out of hand.

Birmingham, meanwhile, have kept just one clean sheet in their last nine league matches at home, yet they remain unbeaten across that stretch, which underlines how open their games have been. They have regularly been able to cause problems going forward, and they should once again be front-footed here with the backing of their home support.

Birmingham like to commit bodies forward when they attack, which could make for quite an open contest here. Their games tend to be quite entertaining to watch, and they come into this clash on an eight-game unbeaten run across all competitions, so they should be confident.

Birmingham’s corner numbers at home have been encouraging, reflecting how they play with intent, particularly in big fixtures. They are averaging 6.61 corners per game on average, and conceding 4.11, totaling 10.72 corners per game at St Andrew’s Stadium this campaign.

Leeds are a cut above Birmingham’s usual opponent, though, and they found no issue in carving through Derby in the previous round. Considering Derby and Birmingham sit close together in the Championship standings, this could be a very similar game, and there were ten corners in that third-round FA Cup clash.

Jay Stansfield has been the main focal point for Birmingham this season, and he usually takes on a large responsibility in the final third. He was on the scoresheet against Leicester last weekend, taking his tally to ten goals and five assists for the season so far. For context, that is exactly double Demarai Gray, who has scored the second-most goals for Birmingham across all competitions this season.

Stansfield is averaging 2.72 shots per 90 this season and has accrued more efforts at goal than any other Birmingham player, to further highlight his importance. That figure rises even further to 3.35 shots per 90 when playing on home turf.

There are high expectations for the 23-year-old, who is also the record-signing for Chris Davies' side. His standards seem to rise against the tougher opponent, and he should be extra motivated to perform well against a Premier League side.

Since arriving on loan from Girona in January, Jhon Solis has already established himself as a key player for Birmingham in the middle of the park, and he has played the full 90 in each of Birmingham’s last three matches.

His importance has only increased for this weekend, after Seung-Ho Paik had to be taken off after just 15 minutes against West Brom with an injury. Solis looks set to start alongside Tommy Doyle here.

Solis will take on a large defensive responsibility, and he has landed this selection in all three starts for the English club, averaging 1.1 fouls per 90. In addition to that, he is also averaging 2.48 tackles per 90, highlighting his willingness to fly into challenges.

This matchup against Leeds promises to be a tough one for the Colombian, as they were fouled 16 times by Derby in their last FA Cup game.

Birmingham’s average of 17.83 shots per game at St Andrew’s this season makes them a key side to target for attempts at goal. January signing Ibrahim Osman has looked desperate to impress since his arrival in the Midlands, firing off 3.46 shots per 90 from out wide, hitting the target with 1.44 of those on average. He’s landed this bet in all three of his home starts and is clearly happy cutting in from the left onto his preferred right foot.

Leeds have much bigger fish to fry than the FA Cup as they’re still involved in a relegation scrap and therefore, they may well look to rest their first-teamers. They’ve given up 4.53 shots on target per game on their travels this season and with a potential lack of motivation, a rampant Blues side can take advantage.

If Birmingham are to try their luck plenty of times, one player who is likely to be involved is utility man Tomoki Iwata who is averaging 1.61 shots per 90 at home this season. The Japanese midfielder loves to shoot from range and has had at least one attempt at goal in 13 of 15 starts at St Andrew’s, further demonstrating his consistency.

I’ve touched upon Leeds’ defensive frailties away from home already but they’re also giving up 12.2 shots on the road per game. Daniel Farke’s side allowed a tepid Derby side to have seven efforts in the previous round and with the hosts likely to be much more front-footed in their approach, they and Iwata should get plenty of opportunities to pull the trigger.

Bright Osayi-Samuel has returned to the Birmingham line-up and his average of 1.96 fouls drawn per 90 this season emphasises how adept he is at forcing late contact. He was fouled twice in midweek against West Brom and having been felled 1.3 times per game across his career, we can rely on his consistency.

If Leeds go with a full-strength line-up, Osayi-Samuel will be involved in an intriguing duel with Gabriel Gudmundsson who has shown his passion for a challenge ever since arriving in England. The Swedish wing back has committed two or more offences in five of his last seven starts and given that our man loves a physical battle, this could be a hotspot on the pitch for fouls.

Another Blue who has been on the end of some rough treatment this season is Tomoki Iwata who has been felled eight times across his last seven starts and an average of 0.83 times per game. Seung Ho-Paik’s injury in midweek means Iwata is likely to start in central midfield where he is usually fouled more often than when deployed at full back.

The middle of the park looks a busy area in this tie and when central midfielders against Leeds have drawn 15 infringements across their last five games, it only enhances the chances of Iwata being fouled. Ilia Gruev, Ethan Ampadu and Ao Tanaka are all physical potential opponents for the Japanese utility player and with his record, he looks nicely priced to win at least one free kick.

This should be a really close game with the potential for an upset, if you could call it that. Birmingham are 4th in the home table in the Championship, whilst Leeds have only picked up eight points in thirteen games away from home this season.

My pick for this game is Wilfred Gnonto, who has found his game time limited in the top flight this season, having played just 349 minutes and made four starts. However, in cup competitions he has contributed, providing a goal and an assist in two appearances in the FA Cup and Carabao Cup. These both also came in away games against Championship opposition, against Sheffield Wednesday and Derby County respectively.

The Blues are capable of keeping things tight at the back, but Leeds extra Premier League quality may prove too much for them to cope with.