Birmingham are in great form, winning five of their last six, whilst Swansea have had a solid start to the campaign, despite hitting a bit of a rough patch recently, losing three of their last four.

Only four teams have scored more goals than Birmingham this season (26), and they’ve found the net in 12 of their 14 league games. What interests me, though, is their defensive record. They’ve only conceded 13 goals from an xG of 19.41, suggesting they’ve been fortunate at the back, and this isn’t sustainable. With first-choice keeper James Beadle also missing in this one, I wouldn’t be surprised if this downturn could start today.

Swansea have also been pretty good going forward, scoring 21 goals from an xG of 22.97. They’ve had a few defensive problems recently though, losing their last two away games and conceding eight goals across them.

The other thing I really like about this bet is both sides’ records when it comes to draws. Swansea have shared the points just twice in 14 league games, whilst Birmingham haven’t drawn any of their last six and are still unbeaten at home.

Millwall have the third-highest xG in the Championship at 26.44, scoring 23 goals, whilst West Brom have scored 20 from an xG of 21.72. I really like the chances of both teams scoring here.

Millwall are particularly interesting. Only four teams have recorded more touches in the opposition’s box this season, so combined with their high xG, I have no doubts they’ll create plenty of chances.

They’ve also scored the most set-piece goals in the league (8), whilst West Brom have conceded an xG of 6.13 from set pieces, with only five teams having a worse record. That’s another area where I can see Millwall causing problems.

At the other end, Millwall haven’t been quite so convincing, conceding 24 goals this season at an average of 1.7 per game. Only four teams have let in more.

West Brom have been pretty reliable in front of goal, averaging 1.4 goals per game and scoring in 13 of their 14 league games. However, they’ve also failed to keep a clean sheet in 12 of those matches.

I also like Millwall’s away record when it comes to draws. They’ve only shared the points once on the road this season, so combined with both sides strong attacking stats, I think BTTS & No Draw looks solid.