Arsenal have won both head-to-head encounters against Brighton this season, and they had plenty of success in the final third when the sides last met in December. The Gunners racked up 24 shots and four big chances worth 3.08 xG - if not for Bart Verbruggen’s five saves, the scoreline really could have got out of hand (winning only 2-1 in the end). 

Brighton have underperformed this campaign so far, and their lack of cohesion at the back has been a significant reason why. They have kept just one clean sheet in their last 10 matches across all competitions. 

However, they have only lost just two of their 13 league matches at the Amex Stadium this season, and they took points off Arsenal when the sides last met on the South Coast, with that game finishing 1-1. Both sides have the potential to contribute to the scoreline here, which makes goals a target.

With that being said, it’s Arsenal who come in as heavy favourites, and they will be desperate to secure all three points as they look to stay top. The Gunners were much the better side in both meetings against Brighton this season, and they landed this selection with ease. Arsenal won seven corners when the sides met in the Premier League, and eight corners in the EFL Cup meeting back in October. 

Arsenal’s standards have dropped slightly in recent weeks, as they drew to Wolves and Brentford, but the Gunners have still been able to regularly create good chances, and they are averaging 5.91 corners per game across all competitions. That number rises slightly to 6.05 corners per game when Arsenal play away, highlighting their reliance on set pieces in the tougher fixtures. 

Arsenal look much more succinct in the final third when Bukayo Saka plays, and the 24-year-old has recently returned to the first team picture after missing five matches. He was on the scoresheet against Wolves on his first Premier League game back, and was heavily involved against Tottenham in the next match. Saka recorded five shots in that game, of which two hit the target. He was replaced late on in the North London Derby with a knock, but he recovered in time to start against Chelsea on Sunday evening.

Saka is averaging 3.03 shots per 90 across all competitions this season, and he has put in some excellent performances against Brighton. He found the back of the net in the EFL Cup meeting, despite only featuring from the bench. Saka then had seven shots in the next meeting in the league, with two of those hitting the target. 

Viktor Gyokeres was much more efficient in front of goal against Tottenham, as he bagged himself a brace in the North London Derby. The Sweden international has been hit-and-miss this season, but on his day, he can be devastating. Gyokeres is a very physical player, and he likes to battle against opposing centre backs. The Brighton defenders will have their hands full on Wednesday night trying to contain the striker, and Gyokeres is averaging 1.27 fouls per 90 across all competitions this season. 

He should be directly up against Jan Paul van Hecke here, which is a matchup to keep an eye on. The Dutchman is averaging 1.33 fouls drawn per 90 this season, and has landed this selection in nine of his 12 matches at the Amex across all competitions. He hit this mark in both meetings against Arsenal this season, with exactly two fouls drawn in both games.

Brighton are one of the most ill-disciplined sides in the Premier League, collecting 68 yellow cards across their 28 matches (2.42 per game). Only Tottenham (71) have picked up more cards than Brighton in the Premier League this season, setting the Seagulls up well to pick up at least 2+ cards in this crucial game in the title race.

It’s not totally surprising that Brighton rank high for fouls and cards in the Premier League this season, they have one of the youngest squads in the league and are managed by the youngest manager in the division so the Seagulls can struggle when it comes to restraint. 

They picked up three yellow cards when they faced Arsenal earlier on in the season, from a foul count of 13, and I think they’ll be antagonised enough by the league leaders to pick up at least two cautions in this clash. 

Man City were able to hold on to a 1-0 win against Leeds on Saturday evening. It wasn’t the most convincing performance from Pep Guardiola’s side, but it extended their winning streak in the Premier League to four matches, keeping the pressure on Arsenal at the top. Man City have been able to grind out results even when they are not at their best, which is a great sign for them as we approach the run-in. 

They are building momentum at a key stage of the season, and Man City look like a tough side to beat at the moment. Nottingham Forest, by contrast, come into this clash in a far more fragile position. They were beaten by Brighton at the Amex Stadium last time out, making it three losses in a row across all competitions. Despite trailing from the 15th minute, Forest only managed 13 shots worth just 0.79 xG.

One of Chelsea’s most standout traits this season has been making more of corners and set pieces. They racked up 10 corners in their 2-1 defeat to Arsenal over the weekend, also getting their goal through this avenue as Reece James forced Piero Hincapie to head into his own net.

Chelsea have scored 10 of their 49 goals in the Premier League from set pieces (20%), so it is clearly an avenue that the Blues look to when they are struggling from open play. Chelsea registered six corners in their 2-1 defeat to Aston Villa earlier in the season, and are averaging 6.00 corners per game in the Premier League this season.

This average drops slightly, but still above the line we require, when looking at their away matches in the Premier League this term with Chelsea averaging 5.00 corners per game across their 14 away matches. Chelsea have excellent delivery from these corners too, so I wouldn’t rule out Chelsea managing to score a goal again from these set play situations. 

Newcastle have seen 3+ goals in each of their last five matches across all competitions, and have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 11 games - promising another goal heavy affair at St James’ Park when the most exciting team in the Premier League visit.

Manchester United have been very impressive under Michael Carrick so far, and saw 3+ goals last time out as they came from behind to beat Crystal Palace 1-0. United have seen 45 goals across their 14 away matches in the Premier League this season, working out to an average of 3.21 goals per game. They should be full of confidence given their strong recent form, and can punish a Newcastle side who are far from secure at the back.

Eddie Howe’s side have seen 49 goals across their 14 matches at St James’ Park this season (3.5 goals per game), notably already conceding more goals at home this season (23) than they did across the entirety of last season (20). This highlights the defensive issues that Newcastle have battled with all campaign, and should lead to another frenzied evening at St James’ Park.