Tips Feed

I put up Dango Ouattara last weekend, when Brentford drew a blank at home against Brighton, but I am sticking with him for their trip to Burnley. Ouattara did arguably have the best chance of the game for The Bees, firing over from a set piece from inside the six yard box, and also created two chances for his teammates.

Prior to last weekend, he had scored and assisted at Newcastle, and scored the winner at Villa Park at the start of February. He’s had a good season for Brentford, unexpectedly in my opinion as I could not see why they were spending over £40 million on a player who had failed to nail down a starting spot at Bournemouth.

Burnley have decent moment in the league, after coming back to beat Palace and draw with Chelsea in their last two games. However, they have not kept a clean sheet in eleven games in all competitions, so you have to think that Brentford will cause them some problems regardless of the result.

It’s the away side likely to be doing the heavy lifting here, with this line coming in in 16 of Brentford’s previous 20 Premier League games, including nine of their last ten away fixtures (the only failure being seven corners in their match at Wolves).

They ever covered the line by themselves against Chelsea, as well as Newcastle, Aston Villa, and Bournemouth, to do so against them. With Keith Andrews being the Bees’ former set-piece coach, they naturally play a big part in the Brentford game plan from both an attacking perspective, but also, seemingly, they are comfortable giving them up, knowing that they are well prepared enough to defend them properly.

As for Burnley, they’ve only seen nine or more corners in nine of their last 20 league fixtures (11 of the last 20 at home) but their games can also be quite feast or famine, as of those nine games, eight actually ended up seeing 11 or more, with a high of 18 against Newcastle (nine each) and 11 in the reverse fixture earlier this season.

Both sides have nearly identical stats when it comes to seeing 2+ goals in their matches.

In their last 20 games in the top flight, they have seen 18 feature at least two goals, 1 0-0 draw, and a singular 1-0. I would expect Brentford to end up coming away with a win here, and they just don’t tend to win their away games by a single goal to nil, especially given owner Matthew Benham’s keenness for them to never sit on a solitary goal lead and keep pressing for more.

The hosts themselves have conceded two or more in over half of their home games, and with Brentford scoring 2+ in four of their five away wins this season (including three at Newcastle and four at Everton), even a comfortable 0-2 away victory will be enough for this leg.

In a side as well drilled from set pieces as Brentford tend to be, having wide forwards who can consistently pick up fouls and allow your side to expose their structured routines is such an invaluable asset.

Winger Lewis-Potter has won a foul in each of his last nine appearances for Brentford, with a game high of four against Tottenham. He is a player who is versatile enough to play on either wing, and in his last three starts (which cover both flanks), the opposition central midfielder on his side has committed a foul in every game, with both the opposing winger and full back fouling in two of those three.

There’s a fair chance he plays on the left for Brentford here, which could see him up against Marcus Edwards, Lesley Ugochukwu, and Josh Laurent. These three have made a foul in three, five, and three of their last five appearances collectively (16 between them in total), which should give Lewis-Potter plenty of ammunition to be clever and win himself a foul or two to help break up what could well be quite a bitty and scrappy affair.

The German midfielder has turned into somewhat of a foul machine over this past month, seemingly embracing his role as Keith Andrews’ midfield enforcer.

He’s made two or more fouls in all of his last four matches, and fouled an opponent in eight of his last ten overall. He also tends to be someone who his manager trusts to play 90 minutes every week and provide the engine in the middle of the park, meaning he should get plenty of opportunities to get stuck into a Burnley forward.

Likely to be up against a couple of players fairly adept at winning fouls in recent weeks such as Hannibal Mejbri (11 won in his last five), Marcus Edwards (six in five) and Jaidon Anthony (seven in four), Janelt will probably have his work cut out and chance are will have to resort to a tactical foul or two to hold up any threat that Burnley end up offering.