The tide has turned for The Cumbrians, with Rob Elliot winning the fans over and guiding them to eight games unbeaten in all comps, with seven wins and an impressive win over Salford in the FA Cup last week.

This had been coming, with Carlisle averaging the highest xG in the National League at 1.83 and sitting top of the expected points table, despite being 18 points behind Boreham Wood.

Boston have picked up a couple of wins but they did come against the bottom two in the division.

On the road, The Pilgrims have managed just eight points from 21 available and they average a huge 1.89 xGA.

MK are in good form, winning each of their last three.

That includes scoring 10 in their last two home games, producing 4.62 xG combined in those games.

I’ve got to mention Aaron Collins, he netted six across those two home wins and he has 13 in 13 league games.

Burton are just one point behind MK in the table but expected points shows they have picked up five more points than they should have.

Their metrics are poor, especially away, where they average just 1.26 xG but 1.62 xGA.

MK have lost just one home game this season, whereas Burton have just two away wins.

Salford haven’t tasted defeat in the league since the end of August and they’re on a run of eight straight league victories.

They’ve also been superb at home, winning six from seven.

Their underlying data is particularly strong at home, where they create an average of 1.70 xG and restrict their opponents to just 1.19.

Northampton are also quite stern defensively, but their major issue is creating chances and scoring goals.

The Cobblers have averaged just 1.18 xG in League Two this season.

As a result, they are the league’s lowest scorers with nine goals in 13 games and they’ve won just one of their last six in all competitions.