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Cristiano Ronaldo scored his first two goals of the World Cup against Uzbekistan last time out as Portugal came away 5-0 winners to set up this shoot-out with Colombia for top spot in Group K.

Ronaldo had more touches in the opposition box (10) and took more shots (seven) than any other player on the pitch in that clash, seeing five of those attempts find the target. 

He also had more shots than any other player in Portugal’s draw with DR Congo (three). Ronaldo was Portugal’s top scorer during qualifying with five goals across his five starts, registering a ridiculous 31 shots across those games (7.44 per game) with 12 of those efforts finding the target (2.88 per 90).

It’s clear that this Portugal side is set up to feed the greatest international goalscorer of all time and he should get enough service to find the target again, in a must-win game for Portugal if they want an easier run in the knockout stages.

Luis Diaz typifies the approach of this Colombia side and has found the target in both his matches so far, finding the back of the net against Uzbekistan in Colombia’s opening game.

Diaz notably had the most touches in the opposition box of any player in both of those matches and will be a real threat to Portugal, who have looked far from secure at the back with both Uzbekistan and DR Congo looking threatening at times. I’m not totally convinced about the partnership of Renato Veiga and Ruben Dias at the back for Roberto Martinez’s side, I think they can be got at.

Colombia will be full of confidence having won both of their matches at the World Cup, and Luis Diaz can once again spearhead an effective attacking setup for the South American side. Diaz scored seven goals across 17 starts during qualifying, finding the target 21 times in those matches (1.28 per 90).

Jefferson Lerma is an important figure for Colombia in the middle of the park and has committed a foul in both his matches so far against DR Congo and Uzbekistan.

He was shown a yellow card for his foul against Uzbekistan last time out, and I see him getting in quite an intense midfield battle with Portugal’s midfield trio of Bruno Fernandes, Joao Neves and Vitinha. 

Those three can control any game, so Colombia will have to get tight to them quickly and break the game up as much as possible, which is where Lerma will play an active role. 

Lerma committed 13 fouls across his 12 starts during qualifying (1.08 per 90) as well as averaging 1.31 fouls committed per 90 in the Premier League during the 25/26 campaign - showing that committing fouls is a consistent part of Lerma’s game.

I think Colombia are being quite underrated in a few markets for this game. I don’t have Portugal down as clear favourites and see this as a pretty even game - especially as Portugal have to win to top the group, which will inevitably open up opportunities for Colombia to get joy in transition.

Colombia have covered this line in both of their World Cup matches so far, registering nine shots on target in their 1-0 win over DR Congo last time out. What was interesting about that display is that the 20 shots Colombia had only returned an xG of 0.98, suggesting that the South American side were being quite speculative with their efforts.

Nine of their 20 efforts came from outside of the box, including four of their nine shots on target. This tells me that Colombia will be willing to take aim even when the opportunity isn’t quite perfect. Colombia averaged 5.30 shots on target per game during qualifying, more than any other South American side. 

I think this will be an entertaining game, Portugal need to win but I don’t trust their backline to keep out a talented Colombian side who will be suited to playing in transition. 

Colombia will know that a point will be enough for them to top the group, but would be naive to bank on a 0-0 draw so I see them offering some attacking threat instead of just sitting in a low block. 

Portugal saw BTTS in their opening game and have looked a little shaky at the back already despite having only played DR Congo and Uzbekistan. The latter had a goal ruled out as well, a side with more quality in the final third will be able to take advantage of this unease in the Portugal backline.