It feels like the Championship has been building up to this game for the last few weeks, it’s one of the most entertaining leagues across Europe and Coventry’s recent stuttering run has made the title race a conversation again in England’s second division.

The initial league meeting between the sides produced six goals as Coventry ran out 4-2 winners over Middlesbrough. Both sides registered an xG in excess of 1.0 in that clash (1.14-1.95) from 31 match shots. Coventry come into this game having seen BTTS in four of their last five matches across all competitions, notably going without a win in their last three matches.

Middlesbrough have been on some run to close the gap to Coventry, with Kim Hellberg’s side now leading the Championship by two points - despite being nearly 10 points behind Coventry just a few weeks ago. This shows how quickly the Championship can change, and suggests that the race is far from over and still has a few turns in the road left. 

Middlesbrough boast the best away record in the Championship this term, avoiding defeat in 12 of their 16 away clashes, with those games producing 43 goals (2.68 per game).

Predicting goal patterns can often be ambiguous in such a pivotal fixture in the context of the season, there’s that nagging doubt it could be a really cagey and tactical affair, limiting the amount of chances on offer. However, accounting for the tactical approaches of both sides, I think this could be a very open game. Inspired by their performance against Sheffield United last week, I think Boro might be aggressive from the off and look to peg back Coventry. 

Both teams to score has become a familiar theme in Middlesbrough away matches recently, with both teams scoring in their last four away games, and an average of 3.75 goals being scored. The visitors have been happy scorers since the turn of the new year, scoring in seven consecutive matches. 

Coventry have generally been a relentless machine at home, despite their downturn in form, it hasn’t impacted results on home soil massively. The hosts have failed to score at home on just three occasions this season, while scoring an average of more than 2 goals a game.

As I have already covered, I think this could be an open game, the counter attack often affords good quality shooting opportunities because of a lack of covering defenders. Haji Wright is struggling for form after a prolific start to the season. 

However, this lack of form hasn’t compromised his shot on target numbers in recent data. Wright has managed 9 shots on target across his last five games, an average of 1.8 per game, there was just one occasion across this sample where he failed to register a shot on target. Wright has generally been trigger happy all across the season, he’s averaging 3.54 shots per 90, so there’s certainly no lack of intent. 

Boro haven’t looked the most assured defensively in recent away matches, they’ve conceded an average of 5 shots on target per game across their last three Championship away matches. If Coventry can get anywhere near those types of numbers, there’s a good chance Haji Wright will play a part in that.

Given the high stakes nature of this fixture, I think there’s the potential for some chaos and bad blood between both teams, it’s the kind of night where both sides will be doing everything in their ability to get a favourable result, and if this means gamesmanship, or cynical fouling, it’s likely to play a part on the agenda. This is definitely a more discretinal angle than stats heavy angle. 

Both teams have cumulatively picked up 98 cards across both of their 31 Championship games this season, so theoretically on the surface, they are getting carded around 1.5 times per game, falling in line with the over 2.5 cards average. 

Boro’s high profile clash against Sheffield United saw 5 yellow cards and 1 red card last week. There should be a tense, but equally ferocious atmosphere in the stands on Monday night, and that added element of spice should create extra adrenaline for the players, this will hopefully be conducive to some cards.

Hackney has become Boro’s talisman in the last couple of years, he’s got the ability to take the game by the scruff of the neck and make something happen, he’s very capable at driving the team forward and providing impetus in possession. There’s no surprise Premier League interest awaits in the summer for his signature. 

Hackney has managed 11 shots across his last five appearances, and these averages have been similar across the whole season, he’s currently averaging 2.52 shots per 90 in the Championship, with a whopping 49 of his 76 shots coming from outside the box. There’s clearly a tendency to be trigger happy and unleash from range. 

Accounting for the tactical approach of the hosts, Boro should get chances on the counter attack here, and Hackney is someone with the ability to make late runs and arrive in the box at the correct moment. It’s truthfully a surprise he’s only managed to score 4 goals.