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Coventry City remain at the top of the Championship standings, and their home form has been a key reason for that. They have only lost one league match this season at the Coventry Building Society Arena, and have won 13 out of 17 overall. 

The Sky Blues are the top scorers in the division by quite some distance, and they play with a lot more attacking-intent in front of a home crowd. Coventry are averaging 17.6 shots per game at home this campaign, and have racked up more shots than any other team in the Championship. 

Matt Grimes has landed this selection in eight of his last nine home starts, and he should once again be able to find promising positions against Preston here. The vast majority of his efforts have come from outside the box this season, while Grimes should also be the designated free-kick taker for his side.

Preston North End suffered a 3-1 defeat against Oxford United last time out, making it five league games without a win.

Preston were at one point in contention for a playoff spot, but a sharp drop off in form has put them 12th in the league standings. They have struggled to control games, and this upcoming clash against Coventry City promises to be a tough one. 

Alistair McCann, in particular, could have a big role in midfield, and he is averaging 1.75 fouls per 90 in the Championship this season. That increases to 1.88 when playing away, where he has landed this selection in four of his last five starts, picking up a yellow card in three of those games.

McCann is also averaging 3.71 tackles per 90 in the league this season, which shows how he tends to get stuck into duels in midfield, and he should have plenty of defensive work to get through midweek.

Having watched Preston closely against Oxford and Blackburn in recent weeks, there is definitely something missing in their game, especially in possession. While they are unlikely to dominate the ball away at Coventry, Preston only seem effective when they don’t have the ball. You have to go back 28 matches to a home win over Charlton, where Preston have won having had more than half of the possession.

At the moment, it doesn’t seem to matter to Coventry who has the ball. They have won five in a row, and actually, they have had less than 50% possession in four of those matches, so perhaps they will cede a decent amount of it to Preston after all.

However, the key aspect of this bet is the dominance in chance creation that Coventry have demonstrated at the CBS this season. At home, they have a +1.14 xG differential per match, creating 2.29 xG per home game. Preston struggle away from home, their xG differential across this season's away fixtures sits at -0.57 xG, conceding over 1.5 xG per match to their opponents.

I have my suspicions that this line has been priced incorrectly, perhaps based on the fact that he’s not played a massive amount of football in recent years at Brentford. Onyeka is not just a tenacious ball winner and tackler; he has the ability to drive the ball forward with speed and spearhead counter-attacking moves, and this often results in opposition players engaging in contact with him illegally. 

Indeed, since joining Coventry, Onyeka has been fouled an average of 2.55 times per 90. Those numbers have remained fairly consistent across the duration of his career. Accounting for every single season he’s played, the average fouls won per 90 hovers around 2.50.

There’s plenty of tenacity in the Preston midfield with the likes of Ali McCann and Ben Whiteman making a cumulative 2.9 fouls per 90; the most likely candidates to commit a foul on Onyeka. 

It wouldn’t surprise me if tonight is something of a hammering, Coventry have put themselves in a fabulous position for automatic promotion, but there will be huge motivation to tighten their grip on the automatic promotion places. This could lead to a very aggressive and attacking performance.

I’m very open to the idea of Coventry having massive amounts of territory and possession, and this is likely to create set piece opportunities via free kicks and corners. Liam Kitching is a centre back and is currently taking 1.27 shots per 90, those are very strong numbers for a player in his position. Coventry’s aerial prowess to win the first contact from set pieces is also exemplified by the fact that Kitching’s centre back partner Bobby Thomas, is averaging 1.20 shots per 90.

Preston’s season has slowly but surely declined into mediocrity despite a promising start, I imagine it could be a very passive and defensive performance here. Preston conceded a cumulative 17 corners in tough away games against Middlesbrough and Ipswich, with both of Ipswich’s centre backs having 2+ shots. 

0.41 of Kitching’s 1.27 shots per 90 have found the target, taking into account the variables of being at home, and playing with a high level of attacking intent against a side with little to play for, I definitely feel there’s an edge on playing the Kitching shot on target at 2.30.

There’s one other really interesting stat; Preston have conceded the most shots from set pieces in the Championship, 10 more shots than any other team. This has amounted to an average of 4.97 shots conceded from set pieces per match.