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Since signing for Palace in the January transfer window, Jorgen Strand Larsen has been putting himself about. The Norwegian is renowned for his physical approach, however, he’s been on the end of plenty of late challenges, drawing six fouls across five league starts and landing this bet in all of those. Including his spell at Wolves, he’s being felled 0.84 times per 90 this season, and so we can expect this trend to continue. 

Leeds central defensive trio of Joe Rodon, Pascal Struijk and Jaka Bijol will be happy to get involved in battles with Larsen and given that they’ve committed 2.18 fouls per 90 between them, there should be plenty of chances for our man to go down. Across Leeds’ last eight matches, opposition strikers have been fouled on 11 occasions, so this looks a generous price. 

Maxence Lacroix has been getting stuck in and leaving his mark on opposing forwards, with an average of 0.94 fouls per 90 this season. Last time out he was sent off for one of two fouls at Old Trafford, and he’s also landed this bet in 12 of his last 14 league starts, and so has the sort of consistency we can rely on. 

In the reverse fixture, the Frenchman struggled to deal with Dominic Calvert-Lewin, committing two fouls and being carded. The awkward target man has proven difficult to handle for opposition centre backs all season, drawing 1.3 fouls per 90, and if he can isolate Lacroix in duels, the Palace defender may have no choice but to commit an offence. 

Adam Wharton is becoming a regular in this column, and with an average of 1.37 shots per 90 in games at Selhurst Park, it’s easy to see why. The England international has fired off 11 shots in his last seven home league starts and has cashed this pick in nine of his last 11 games in front of the Palace fans, and so is consistently trying his luck. 

Leeds have had an excellent season on their return to the top tier, but have struggled on their travels, winning just once all season and conceding 13.29 shots per game. Palace will feel that they owe their visitors one after a 4-1 humbling in the reverse fixture in December, and will be hoping that Wharton can lead them to three points. 

Lacroix has managed a shot in nine of his last 10 league starts. The Frenchman seems to have become the main target for first contact from all Palace set pieces since Marc Guehi’s departure, and having served a suspension after being sent off following his goal at Old Trafford, he should be well rested and raring to go. 

Visitors Leeds give up 3.93 shots per game from set pieces, and they face a Palace side who are one of the most effective teams from attacking dead ball situations. Across Leeds’ last four games in all competitions, they’ve allowed six shots from opposition centre backs and Lacroix should keep that trend going.

Crystal Palace host Leeds on Sunday afternoon, and they might not be so excited for this clash, given how the reverse fixture went. Leeds dominated proceedings, and they cruised to a 4-1 victory at Elland Road. The hosts registered 2.67 xG from their 20 shots, and they were able to carve through Palace at will. 

Marc Guehi has since departed to Man City, and Daniel Munoz has suffered an injury recently, which has weakened the Palace defence even further. However, they do look much better in the final third following the return of Ismaila Sarr from AFCON and the arrival of Jorgen Strand Larsen. Because of that, goals become a target once again here. 

Leeds have failed to score in back-to-back Premier League games coming into this clash, but they have generated a total of 2.64 xG across those matches, so a regression is due.

Leeds have been unlucky in the final third, and their lack of ruthlessness going forward has hindered them recently, but their defensive structure has also been quite poor. Leeds have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last seven Premier League matches, and they have only won one game in that stretch. 

That will fill Crystal Palace with confidence, especially as they come into this clash in a decent patch of form. They have won three of their last five league games, which has lifted them up to 13th in the standings, well clear of the bottom three. 

The Eagles are averaging 4.36 corners per game at Selhurst Park this season in the league, and have landed this selection in four of their last five matches. They only missed this mark against Aston Villa, but they had three corners in that match, so they went close.

Palace have played with a greater intensity since the start of January, which has been led by the new signings. Jorgen Strand Larsen, in particular, has made a notable impact, deputising up front in place of the injured Jean-Philippe Mateta. The Norwegian international is averaging 2.65 fouls per 90 for his new club and has also picked up four bookings in his eight starts. Palace’s tally of 20 fouls a couple of weeks ago was their highest of the season, and they also registered 14 infringements against Spurs in their last Premier League outing. 

This is a great matchup to target James Justin, who is averaging 1.66 fouls drawn per 90 this season. That figure rises to 2.27 when playing away, where he has landed this selection in all nine of his appearances on the road. He has been fouled six times in his last three away starts alone.

Anton Stach fired in a spectacular long-range free kick against Crystal Palace when the sides last met, after some stoppage time drama. The German international had three shots in that game, which were all from outside the box, but were from central areas. 

Stach has a wand of a right foot, and Palace didn’t do very well to limit the space he found in the final third - because of that, he should be looking forward to this matchup. Stach has featured in a more advanced position in recent weeks, as Daniel Farke looks to take advantage of his ball-striking ability.

Stach is averaging 1.99 shots per 90 this season, which rises slightly to 2.1 when playing away. He recorded three shots against Aston Villa in his last away outing, and even found the back of the net. He has landed this selection in each of his last three starts on the road.