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Erling Haaland has a connection to Leeds United through his Father, having been born there whilst his Alf-Inge Haaland played for the club in the early 2000’s. Haaland has only played at Elland Road once in his career, scoring twice during his first season in English football, which was also Leeds’ last season in the Premier League prior to this one.

He’s an obvious selection for a bet such as this, I won’t pretend it takes much expertise to put him up. But he is in great form, covering this bet in each of his last five starts.

Leeds have actually picked up more points at Elland Road this season than Man City have away from home, so they are no mugs, but City did put three past them at the Etihad back in November, and Leeds have only kept one clean sheet at home in their last eleven.

Pep Guardiola has watched his side score two or more goals in eight successive matches, and there’s little evidence to suggest Leeds will be able to stop that run.

City have been prolific even away from home in recent times, striking at least two goals in seven of their last ten road trips – including matches against Liverpool and Real Madrid. Leeds, meanwhile, are not known for their defensive strength.

They only have one clean sheet in their last ten games and two in their last 26. Against Champions League-level opponents, they have conceded ten times in their last three, including the recent 4-0 loss to Arsenal.

The head-to-head record also makes bleak reading: City have 2+ goals in all of their last 5 against the Elland Road club, including a 3-2 win in the reverse fixture.

At first glance, Nico O’Reilly’s season stats don’t make this an appealing bet.

After all, he has only 1.14 shots per 90. But in recent weeks, he’s been used in a more attacking role by Pep Guardiola, promoted to an offensively minded midfield area.

It’s a position he’s growing into. In his last two matches, he’s had seven shots. Having scored three of City’s last four games, he’s not going to be short of confidence either.

On top of this, Leeds are weak defensively through the middle; in recent games against top Premier League clubs, they have allowed five shots from Cole Palmer, four from Joelinton, and three each from Martin Zubimendi and Manuel Ugarte.

The price still hasn't crashed on Semenyo shots on target, so I'm happy to get on while we can.

This has landed in 22 of his 26 Premier League appearances this season, including all of his last five.

He's as short as 1.17 in places to have 2+ shots; that's an implied probability of 86%. He's heavily odds-on to have three or more shots, too.

58% of his shots this season have been on target. If he continues that accuracy, he'd only need two shots to land one on target - and, again, he's 1.17 to have two shots or more.

The 2+ shots on target bet was covered by Semenyo via Super Sub in his last game, with Phil Foden replacing him and notching one late on v Newcastle.

He's so two-footed, he has so many options to create a shooting opportunity. He's generally regarded as right-footed, but he's actually had more shots with his left than his right this season.

Man City are the 4th-most fouled team in the Premier League this season, and Bernardo Silva stands out as a slice of value at Elland Road.

The Portuguese is so comfortable taking the ball in tight areas and could entice duels with so many Leeds players as he drifts around the park, with City expected to have lots of the ball as Daniel Farke's men sit back to contain them.

Silva will likely operate around Ethan Ampadu and Ilia Gruev in central areas, who combine for 2.20 fouls per 90.

Super Sub offers insurance here. Silva has been subbed off four times this calendar year, three times for Tijjani Reijnders (0.86 fouls won per 90) and once for Phil Foden (1.31 fouls won per 90).

Leeds are one of the more passive teams in the league when it comes to pressing and will cede territory, but they'll bite in their own defensive third, and Silva is clever enough to find spaces to receive the ball in those areas.