Man City were able to hold on to a 1-0 win against Leeds on Saturday evening. It wasn’t the most convincing performance from Pep Guardiola’s side, but it extended their winning streak in the Premier League to four matches, keeping the pressure on Arsenal at the top. Man City have been able to grind out results even when they are not at their best, which is a great sign for them as we approach the run-in. 

They are building momentum at a key stage of the season, and Man City look like a tough side to beat at the moment. Nottingham Forest, by contrast, come into this clash in a far more fragile position. They were beaten by Brighton at the Amex Stadium last time out, making it three losses in a row across all competitions. Despite trailing from the 15th minute, Forest only managed 13 shots worth just 0.79 xG.

Forest are only two points above the relegation zone, and Vitor Pereira’s fifth game in charge looks set to be a difficult assignment. Man City won 2-1 in the reverse fixture at the City Ground, and it was a dominant display from Pep Guardiola’s men. They recorded 16 shots worth 1.45 xG, while the hosts managed just seven efforts worth 0.55 xG in return. John Victor was in goal for the hosts then, and he made three saves. However, the Brazil international is ruled out of this midweek clash due to injury, which means Matz Sels should start.

Sels made his return from injury against Brighton at the weekend, and he looked in good nick, registering five saves. He will have to be on form again here, as City are forcing 3.65 opposition saves per game this season, rising to 4.18 when playing at the Etihad. 

Antoine Semenyo played a decisive role against Leeds at the weekend, scoring the only goal of the game to secure three points for his side. That finish ticked his tally to six goals since joining Man City in January, and 16 for the season overall. He has hit the ground running for his new club, continuing to play with confidence in the final third, and Semenyo is averaging 2.16 shots per 90 for City. He has landed this selection in six of his 10 starts for his new club so far, also providing two assists. 

City should dominate proceedings again at home here, which will allow Semenyo to get involved high up the pitch. He will be confident heading into this matchup, given that he has scored in two of his last three meetings with Forest.

In addition to his output in the final third, Antoine Semenyo has shown a willingness to contribute defensively. During the first half of the season with Bournemouth, he had an average of 1.85 fouls per 90, reflecting an aggressive approach in duels. Despite City being much better at retaining possession, that figure has remained relatively high at 1.45 fouls per 90 across all competitions for his new club. 

Semenyo will be up against Neco Williams on the flank in midweek, which is an ideal matchup. The Welshman is effective at drawing free kicks, averaging 1.7 fouls drawn per 90 this season, rising to 1.98 on the road. In a tough game like this, that could be useful to alleviate the pressure on his side. Neco Williams sees plenty of the ball for Forest and is confident pushing forward, which means he should have plenty of duels against Semenyo.

Man City were able to hold on to a 1-0 win against Leeds on Saturday evening. It wasn’t the most convincing performance from Pep Guardiola’s side, but it extended their winning streak in the Premier League to four matches, keeping the pressure on Arsenal at the top. Man City have been able to grind out results even when they are not at their best, which is a great sign for them as we approach the run-in. 

They are building momentum at a key stage of the season, and Man City look like a tough side to beat at the moment. Nottingham Forest, by contrast, come into this clash in a far more fragile position. They were beaten by Brighton at the Amex Stadium last time out, making it three losses in a row across all competitions. Despite trailing from the 15th minute, Forest only managed 13 shots worth just 0.79 xG.

One of Chelsea’s most standout traits this season has been making more of corners and set pieces. They racked up 10 corners in their 2-1 defeat to Arsenal over the weekend, also getting their goal through this avenue as Reece James forced Piero Hincapie to head into his own net.

Chelsea have scored 10 of their 49 goals in the Premier League from set pieces (20%), so it is clearly an avenue that the Blues look to when they are struggling from open play. Chelsea registered six corners in their 2-1 defeat to Aston Villa earlier in the season, and are averaging 6.00 corners per game in the Premier League this season.

This average drops slightly, but still above the line we require, when looking at their away matches in the Premier League this term with Chelsea averaging 5.00 corners per game across their 14 away matches. Chelsea have excellent delivery from these corners too, so I wouldn’t rule out Chelsea managing to score a goal again from these set play situations. 

Brighton are one of the most ill-disciplined sides in the Premier League, collecting 68 yellow cards across their 28 matches (2.42 per game). Only Tottenham (71) have picked up more cards than Brighton in the Premier League this season, setting the Seagulls up well to pick up at least 2+ cards in this crucial game in the title race.

It’s not totally surprising that Brighton rank high for fouls and cards in the Premier League this season, they have one of the youngest squads in the league and are managed by the youngest manager in the division so the Seagulls can struggle when it comes to restraint. 

They picked up three yellow cards when they faced Arsenal earlier on in the season, from a foul count of 13, and I think they’ll be antagonised enough by the league leaders to pick up at least two cautions in this clash. 

Newcastle have seen 3+ goals in each of their last five matches across all competitions, and have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 11 games - promising another goal heavy affair at St James’ Park when the most exciting team in the Premier League visit.

Manchester United have been very impressive under Michael Carrick so far, and saw 3+ goals last time out as they came from behind to beat Crystal Palace 1-0. United have seen 45 goals across their 14 away matches in the Premier League this season, working out to an average of 3.21 goals per game. They should be full of confidence given their strong recent form, and can punish a Newcastle side who are far from secure at the back.

Eddie Howe’s side have seen 49 goals across their 14 matches at St James’ Park this season (3.5 goals per game), notably already conceding more goals at home this season (23) than they did across the entirety of last season (20). This highlights the defensive issues that Newcastle have battled with all campaign, and should lead to another frenzied evening at St James’ Park.