Pulisic started the season really well, but has since dropped off a bit alongside the form of AC Milan who were in the title race a few weeks ago but now sit 10 points behind their city rivals ahead of kick off. There is an argument to be made that if Milan can win here, then there is still a chance of them catching Inter - but it does seem unlikely this late on in the season.

Pulisic has been playing as part of a front two for Milan, usually partnered by Rafael Leao. Both are primarily wingers, but have been effective in these striker roles with the position change really benefitting the shot output of Pulisic. The former Chelsea and Dortmund player has taken 38 shots across his 12 starts in Serie A this season - working out to an average of 3.29 shots per 90.

Pulisic comes into this game having had 3+ shots in each of his last two matches, so he should be primed to have another few shots on goal in this clash. Pulisic had two shots and scored in the most recent head to head meeting between the sides, and i’m happy to back him to come in under his shot average for the season here.

Dimarco has been a lot more involved in the final third for Inter this season, and managed two shots when the sides last met and Milan ran out 1-0 winners. Dimarco has had 3+ shots in four of his last five matches in Serie A, showing how willing he is at the moment to get forward.

Dimarco has registered 20 goal contributions across his 21 starts in Serie A for Inter this season, he’s actually a bit suspect defensively but the value he brings to the side is clear in the final third - and the way Inter set up allows him to get forward with Dimarco often having Bastoni and one of Inter’s midfield three covering for him when he does go forward.

These 21 starts have seen Dimarco have 49 shots (2.22 per 90) with 18 of these attempts finding the target (0.82 per 90). No Inter player has registered more goal contributions in Serie A than Dimarco this season - showing just how willing the wingback is to commit to the offensive side of the game, which can lead to the Italian getting at least two shots away in this clash.

These sides actually sit towards the lower end of the card and foul count in Serie A - but that is mainly because of how dominant they’ve been in the division as the top two sides coming into this contest. This is a massive rivalry, and one that should produce at least four cards despite the discipline that both have been able to show across the season.

The most recent head to head meeting between these sides fell just one card short of this line with three in total from a foul count of 16 overall. I think we’ll see more aggression from both sides here, it’s Milan’s last chance to really stay in the title race while Inter don’t really have much else to fight for after crashing out of the Champions League before the round of 16.

The referee for this game is Danielle Doveri who is averaging 4.04 cards per game across his 258 appointments in Serie A over the course of his career. He’s an experienced official, but one that doesn’t mind reaching for his pocket even in a game of this magnitude. This selection is aided by the chances of a red card for either side if tensions do spill over.

Milan have managed to score in each of the last eight meetings between these sides, and I think they’ll be able to pose Inter enough of a threat to get on the scoresheet again. Milan have scored in four of their last five matches across all competitions, losing just one of these games which was a surprise 1-0 defeat to Parma. 

Milan have lost just two of their 13 matches in Serie A this season, netting 18 goals across these games. With an expected front pairing of Leao and Pulisic, I think Milan will be able to offer a constant threat throughout the game - particularly in moments of transition where the speed of this front pairing can be very beneficial to Milan and their chances of taking something from the contest.

Milan may have the psychological edge coming into this game too, they’ve avoided defeat in each of the last six head to head meetings - winning four of these games. I think Milan have more than enough firepower to get on the scoresheet in a game that they pretty much have to win to have any chance of making the fight for the Scudetto a real battle.

No AC Milan player has picked up more yellow cards in Serie A this season than Fikayo Tomori (4). The centre back is pretty generously priced even as a single for a card in this clash given his record in the Italian top flight this term - and looks to have a pretty tough matchup on paper against Thuram and Dimarco.

Thuram is very strong when it comes to winning fouls, and will be the leading striker for Inter here with Martinez out injured for this clash. Thuram has won 29 fouls across his 16 starts in Serie A this season, working out to an average of 1.98 fouls won per 90. Thuram is likely to try and pin himself against Tomori who can lose his temper at times and is averaging 1.06 fouls committed per 90.

Tomori will also contest duels against Dimarco who has been pushing on quite high in recent matches, pretty much acting as a left winger at times. Dimarco is averaging 0.72 fouls won per 90 in Serie A this season, and should be able to cause Tomori problems alongside Thuram which can lead to the former Chelsea centre back picking up a caution in this derby.

Calhanoglu has a ridiculous recent record when it comes to cards, he’s been booked in four of his last five Serie A matches and was shown a card in the initial league meeting between these sides earlier in the season.

Calhanoglu picked up his booking in the initial league meeting for dissent, but has picked up more yellow cards than any other Inter player in Serie A this season (6). He’s committed 21 fouls across his 16 appearances in the Italian top flight this term, working out to an average of 1.41 fouls committed per 90.

Calhanoglu will have as many as three opponents in this clash, with Milan expected to line up with a midfield trio of Modric, Rabiot and Fofana who are winning 3.48 fouls per 90 between them in Serie A this season.