MK Dons are looking more and more like a League One team as their January investments begin to gel with their summer 2025 recruitment. The proof of this is in their results, but it is now showing in their performance data as well.
They have managed to make their ill-fitting home stadium into a bit of a fortress as well. 13 matches unbeaten in the league, and only four draws in that spell, too.
The Us have somewhat flattered to deceive this season. They have the potential to be one of League Two’s top teams, but they have dropped too many points. Their last six matches reads two wins, two draws, and two defeats.
They did win their last away match at Newport, but they had lost three in four before that. That 2-1 win was also the first time that Colchester had scored more than once on the road since a 4-3 loss to Salford on 13th December.
Whilst they do actually have a narrowly positive xG differential away from home over their last 30 matches, it is nowhere near MK Dons’ dominance, so I am expecting the home side to win that xG battle and then use their extra attacking quality to take advantage of that.
