ABC Tips

This is absolutely massive and I can’t wait to see how it plays out. Manchester City look to be hitting that familiar stride they find at the end of the season again as they hunt down an Arsenal side that are also reflecting their performances over recent seasons at the end of a campaign, crumbling a little as they approach the finish line.

I do think the term ‘bottlers’ is used too frequently for Arsenal, I’d argue that they have bottled it once under Arteta before - back in the 23/24 season where they were the best team in the league but couldn’t get over the line. This would definitely be a bottle though, usually a side that is six points clear at the top (City have a game in hand) would relish going to their direct rivals, but the energy around Arsenal feels off - and there is a historical trend to this as well.

Arsenal fall apart in April. It’s their worst month in terms of win percentage since Arteta took over, which is very interesting to compare to Manchester City - who have a 79.5% win percentage in April, the strongest of any month since Guardiola took over. I see City putting more pressure on Arsenal with a win or a draw here, Arsenal have never won a game at the Etihad while Pep Guardiola has been Manchester City boss and that does not look like changing with their current form.

I think Arsenal are a bit scared at the moment. They’ve failed to win any of their last three domestic matches - including losing the EFL Cup final to City - and now take on a City side that has just thrashed both Liverpool and Chelsea by an aggregate scoreline of 7-0. 

Monaco’s brilliant run of form was brought to an end last time out by Paris FC, who came away surprise 4-1 winners over the most in-form side in Ligue 1 prior to that defeat. Monaco had won each of their last five games before that defeat, and have only lost to PSG and Paris FC across the last two games - something tells me they don’t like the French capital that much.

Monaco came away 2-1 winners in the most recent meeting between the sides which was in the Coupe De France. They’ve won each of the last eight head to head meetings between the sides, including the initial league meeting which had the same outcome as the cup tie. Both meetings this season saw Monaco be on top for most of the contest, particularly in the cup clash with the away side registering an xG of 3.71 from 17 shots overall.

Monaco have won 10 of their 15 home games in Ligue 1 this season. Only Marseille, PSG and Lens have picked up more points at home than Monaco in the French top flight this term with Monaco netting 31 goals across these games. Auxerre have a very poor record on the road, winning only one of their 14 away matches and scoring just 10 goals across these games. Only Le Havre (7) and Metz (5) have picked up fewer points on the road than Auxerre (8) in Ligue 1 this season.

Bayern Munich secured their spot in the semi finals of the Champions League during the week with a thrilling 4-3 victory over Real Madrid, after winning the first leg in the Spanish capital 2-1. 

There is no doubt that Vincent Kompany has assembled one of the brightest attacking sides in Europe, and there is a balance to his front four which is distinctly lacking across most teams on the continent.

Bayern Munich have won 12 of their 14 home games in the Bundesliga this season, collecting more points than any other side in the German top flight at home (37). They’ve scored 56 goals across these games (4.0 per game), and only conceded 13. They come into this clash having won each of their last six matches across all competitions, scoring 3+ goals in five of these games.

Stuttgart won’t be an easy walkover for Bayern, but the away side have not won at the Allianz Arena since 2018, losing each of their last two trips to the stadium by an aggregate scoreline of 7-0. Stuttgart’s main success has come at home this season, they’re not as capable on the road with only six wins from their 14 away matches and 24 goals conceded across these games.

Strasbourg showed plenty of character to come back from 2-0 down in the second leg of their Conference League quarter final tie against Mainz, running out 4-0 winners on Thursday evening to secure their spot in the semi finals of the competition. 

They’ve been an entertaining watch under Gary O’Neil so far, seeing 3+ goals in three of their last five matches across all competitions. The most recent head to head meeting between these sides produced five goals as Strasbourg fell to a 4-1 defeat at the hands of Rennes, who have seen 3+ goals in four of their last five matches across all competitions.

Rennes’ most recent assignment was against Angers, a game they won 2-1 at home. That win was important for Rennes, who can still finish in a Champions League spot if they end the season strongly. Their 14 away games in Ligue 1 this season have produced 49 goals, working out to an average of 3.5 goals per game.