Andy’s Bet Club
Competition Badge
Premier League
England
Badge

Newcastle

Tomorrow
Badge

Sunderland

ABC Tips

Football
Andy Robson

Newcastle v Sunderland Bet Builder @ 3.31

Enzo Le Fee is a doubt for this game, which is a massive blow for Sunderland, which should mean that we see Habib Diarra continue in his slightly more advanced role behind Xhaka and Sadiki.

I was very impressed with this trio in the early stages of the season, they had a really good balance but an injury to Diarra disrupted their development. Diarra is fit again now and can be a shot threat for Sunderland, operating in the role that Le Fee was so effective in for the Black Cats.

Diarra has taken 16 shots across his 11 starts in the Premier League this season, working out to an average of 1.42 shots per 90. He’s scored two goals from this tally, and has the required physicality and stamina to engage in a battle with Newcastle’s intense midfield set up.

Anthony Gordon had one chance fall his way at the Camp Nou during the week, and should have done a bit better with his effort as it deflected wide of the goal. Gordon played up front in that game, and could start in that forward role again here with Newcastle still not getting much out of Woltemade and Wissa as their main two strikers.

Gordon has taken 44 shots across his 22 starts in the Premier League this season (2.39 per 90), seeing 19 of these efforts find the target (1.03 per 90). This has resulted in Gordon scoring five goals in the Premier League, and 16 goals across all competitions, with Gordon being particularly effective in the Champions League.

Gordon’s shot output in the Champions League is just as compelling for this angle, with Gordon taking 26 shots across his nine starts (3.04 per 90), seeing 14 of these efforts find the target (1.64 per 90) - resulting in Gordon having a haul of 10 goals in the Champions League from an xG of 8.53.

It may seem a bit odd to back a side to win after they’ve just lost 7-2 in a midweek game, but I do buy into the belief that derbies exist outside of form lines - and Newcastle have plenty to atone for after losing the initial league meeting in a pretty limp fashion.

Home advantage should be massive for Newcastle here, not only in the context of the derby but also because Sunderland have struggled on the road all season. Regis Le Bris’ side have only managed to win three of their 15 away matches in the Premier League this term, notably only scoring eight goals across these games - only Wolves (7) have scored fewer goals on the road than Sunderland this season.

Newcastle have been far from their best this season but have still managed to win eight of their 15 games at St James’ Park, and will want to bounce back following their bruising defeat in the Champions League and poor display against Sunderland in the initial meeting between the sides, which attracted quite a bit of criticism.

Robin Roefs has been one of the signings of the season in the Premier League this term, but will be unavailable for Sunderland here, which means that Melker Ellborg should step into the frame - and he’s likely to be just as busy as Roefs was in the Sunderland goal.

Ellborg has been forced into making seven saves across his two Premier League appearances since Roefs picked up his injury (3.50 saves per 90). He was tested three times by Brighton last time out, and four times by Leeds - suggesting that Sunderland's backline is not going to offer Ellborg much protection in this clash. 

Newcastle were really poor in the initial league meeting between the sides, but still managed to draw two saves from Roefs. Sunderland have been really organised at the back at times this season, but Newcastle can still force Ellborg into saves with efforts from distance if Sunderland do effectively manage to limit the space in and around their box.

Roefs has been forced into making 85 saves across his 28 starts in the Premier League this season (3.04 per 90), suggesting that the Sunderland goalkeeper is regularly tested to this degree by opposition sides.

18+, Please Gamble Responsibly, Ad.
Football
Andy Robson

Newcastle v Sunderland Card Double #2 @ 6.00

I had my eye on Hume last time these two played, but unfortunately he didn’t start. As it stands, he’s received the most cards (7) for Sunderland and is also their most fouled player.

This is likely due to how often he pushes up the pitch to get shots off, which can leave him exposed and force him into committing a tactical foul.

Sadiki has received the second-most cards (6) for Sunderland and will be one of the key players in this midfield battle.

It’s a shame Newcastle may not have their usual midfield trio, but players like Gordon (wins 2.03 fouls per 90), Ramsey (1.00 per 90), and Willock (1.07 per 90) will still be tough to defend against.

18+, Please Gamble Responsibly, Ad.
Football
Andy Robson

Newcastle v Sunderland Card Double @ 7.00

Malick Thiaw committed three fouls and was shown a yellow card when these sides met at the Stadium of Light earlier in the season.

Thiaw has dealt with the majority of forwards he's faced this season pretty well - but struggled against Brobbey who held up the ball really well in Sunderland's 1-0 win over Newcastle earlier in the season, drawing four fouls in total from Eddie Howe's side.

Thiaw and Brobbey should reassume their battle from the most recent meeting here, with Brobbey likely to be isolated against Thaiw on a few occasions when Sunderland send the ball up to him to try and push up the pitch a little.

Brian Brobbey is is quite a handful when leading the line for Sunderland, and I think he'll get locked into a real battle up against Malick Thiaw and Sven Botman.

Brobbey has committed 16 fouls across his 14 Premier League starts this season (1.13 per 90), picking up three yellow cards in the process. One of these cautions was picked up in the most recent league meeting between these sides - where Brobbey was booked despite not committing a foul, showing how games like this often gives players quite a few chances to test the patience of the referee even if they don't rack up a high foul count.

18+, Please Gamble Responsibly, Ad.

Tips Feed

Anthony Gordon - to have 1+ Shots On Target

1d ago

Habib Diarra - to have 1+ Shots

1d ago

Sunderland Goalkeeper - to Make 3+ Saves

1d ago

Newcastle - to Win

1d ago

Nick Woltemade - to Score or Assist

1d ago

Omar Alderete - to be Shown a Card

1d ago

Jacob Ramsey - Shown a Card

1d ago

Anthony Gordon - to Score or Assist

1d ago