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Eredivisie
Netherlands
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Nijmegen

Tomorrow
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Sittard

ABC Tips

Football

Andy's Saturday Accumulator @ 4.27

I’ve backed Nijmegen over the course of the season for goals, they’ve been one of the most entertaining teams to watch in Europe this term and this clash looks primed for goals at both ends again. 

Clean sheets are not very common in the Eredivisie, these two sides have only kept three each all season and their most recent meeting is a good example of the goal volume we can expect in this clash. Fortuna Sittard ran out 3-2 winners when these sides last faced off back in August, with that clash seeing both sides register an xG in excess of 1.0 (1.33-1.90).

Four of the last five head to head meetings between the sides have seen BTTS, offering a historical angle to this contest as well. At present, Fortuna Sittard are trying to pull themselves closer to the European spots while Nijmegen are trying to close the five point gap to Feyenoord which would see them earn a Champions League spot - so both sides have plenty of motivation to get on the scoresheet.

Both sides have also seen BTTS in each of their last four matches coming into this clash, suggesting that this game will also be competitive and produce goals at both ends with what is at stake for these two sides with European aspirations in the Eredivisie this season.

Como have been so tough to beat in Serie A this season, losing just five of their 26 matches - only the two Milan sides have lost fewer games than Como in Serie A this season. This solid record has seen Como rise up the ranks from a mid table side, to a team that can challenge for Europe with Cesc Fabregas’ side just four points adrift of the Champions League places. 

Como claimed a morale boosting 2-0 win over Juventus last time out, which not only pulled them closer to their European challengers but also ended a poor run of form - though Como did take on Atalanta, Milan and Napoli in this recent run.They welcome a Lecce side who have only managed to win three of their 12 away games in Serie A this term, notably only scoring eight goals across these games which is the joint lowest tally on the road of any side in the Italian top flight this term.

Como dispatched Lecce with ease when the sides last met, coming away 3-0 winners back in December. They deserved that victory too, limiting Lecce to 38% possession and an xG of 0.76. Their superiority should be even more exaggerated here now that they are the home side, and that should translate into three points.

Real Sociedad are usually a side you would associate with being defensively solid and secure, especially over the last few seasons - but that safety has completely unravelled this term with the away side here only keeping one clean sheet all season, unsurprisingly the worst record in LaLiga this campaign.

Real Sociedad conceded three goals last time out against Real Oviedo, the bottom placed side in the league and the lowest scorers in the division. This example highlights the issues that Real Sociedad have been dealing with defensively all season, and it’s particularly prevalent on the road with Real Sociedad conceding 18 goals across their 12 away matches in LaLiga this term.

There is plenty of motivation for Mallorca to end up on the scoresheet too, they are one point from safety in LaLiga but do have a very solid home record to lean on. They’ve only lost three of their 12 home matches in LaLiga this term, netting 19 goals across these games in front of their own supporters. 

Furthermore, one of the most interesting parts of Mallorca’s campaign this season has been the goalscoring rate of Vedat Muriqi. He’s netted 16 goals in LaLiga this season, which is an exceptional record for a striker playing for a side battling relegation - and it is only second to Mbappe in the Spanish top flight this season.

Thun have been one of the stories of the season across Europe and currently sit comfortably top of the Swiss Super League as a newly promoted side. However, the focus for this game should actually be on Luzern who are looking to break into the top six.

The Swiss Super League splits off into a Championship group and a relegation group after the main league phase portion of the season, Luzern are right on the edge of qualifying for the Championship group with only three points separating them from Young Boys who occupy the final spot. Luzern have found some form in recent matches to aid their chances of sneaking into the top six, winning each of their last three matches in the Swiss Super League.

All three of these wins have seen 3+ goals, with Luzern actually managing to score four goals themselves in each of these games. They were on the end of a 4-1 hammering when the sides met earlier in the campaign, though they did manage to register an xG of 1.94 to Thun’s 3.24.

Thun have seen 3+ goals in four of their last five matches across all competitions, and have seen 45 goals across their 13 home matches overall (3.46 per game). They won’t lie down and let Luzern take all three points here, so they should also be able to contribute to the overall goal tally.

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