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Bayer Leverkusen and Olympiacos are familiar opponents, and they recently met on matchday 7 of the Champions League back in January. The Greek side prevailed by a 2-0 scoreline in that game, although it wasn’t a particularly convincing victory. They managed six shots worth 1.13 xG, while Leverkusen somehow failed to score from any of their 17 efforts worth 2.58 xG. Konstantinos Tzolakis deserves immense credit for his six saves. 

Two of those were to deny Alex Grimaldo, who racked up four shots in that match. The Spaniard is averaging 2.13 shots per 90 in the Champions League this season, and has scored four goals. Grimaldo is given plenty of attacking freedom on the left flank for Leverkusen, and doesn’t hesitate to pull the trigger. He has landed this selection in six out of eight matches on the European stage this season, and will be the designated free kick taker for his side.

Leverkusen are without Mark Flekken at the moment, who has been one of the busiest keepers in the Bundesliga - making 59 saves across his 17 starts (3.54 per 90).

We can expect his replacement in Janis Blaswich to be just as busy here, he’s made four starts in the Bundesliga since Flekken picked up his injury and has been forced into making 14 saves (3.23 per 90).

Olympiakos will be encouraged by Leverkusen being without their number one keeper and look to test Blaswich as often as possible. Flekken was averaging 4.00 saves per 90 in the Champions League before he got injured, so we can expect Blaswich to be just as busy.

Ibrahim Maza has been a breakout star for Leverkusen this season after joining from Hertha Berlin in the summer. He comes into this clash having had 2+ shots in each of his last five Champions League starts.

As the season has progressed, Maza has moved up the pitch and should start in a role just behind the striker here. Maza has had 13 shots across his five starts in the Champions League this term, working out to an average of 2.32 shots per 90.

Maza has also had 21 shots across his nine starts in the Bundesliga this term (2.23 per 90), adding to the evidence to suggest that he can get at least two shots away here. 

There will be an onus on Olympiacos to be progressive and positive in their approach on Wednesday night; it is the home leg of a two-legged tie after all. The hosts will have good memories of playing against Leverkusen after beating them 2-0; this may lead to some early ammunition for El Kaarbi. 

El Kaabi is Olympiacos’ main goal-scoring threat; he’s scored 15 goals across all competitions and taken on 83 shots in the process. These shot numbers are really high relative to the minutes played. He’s averaging 3.95 shots per 90 in the Greek Super League and 3.40 shots per 90 in the Champions League. If he can get anywhere near these usual numbers, there’s a good chance the shot on target will land. 

While El Kaarbi’s shot numbers have remained high, this has also converted into a decent proportion of them hitting the target. The Olympiacos front man is currently averaging 1.48 shots on target per 90 in the Champions League and 1.91 shots on target per 90 in the Greek Super League.

As previously highlighted, Olympiacos will be looking to come out of the blocks quickly, given their home advantage.

When they played against Leverkusen in the Champions League group format, they were 1-0 up inside two minutes, and 2-0 up by half-time. Inevitably, this altered the game state from a very early point in the match, which is possibly the reason Olympiacos only ended up having two corners, both of them unsurprisingly coming in the first half. 

Olympiacos’ corner numbers in Champions League home matches haven’t been that high, but I think this is somewhat of a statistical anomaly. In home matches against Real Madrid and PSV, they managed exactly 18 shots and exactly three corners in both matches. Crucially, this shows they can be very competitive from a territorial standpoint, and those low corner numbers are definitely not a reflection of the territory they had. 

Any variable that involves Leverkusen going ahead or Olympiacos failing to take the lead should leave a favourable game state for home corners.

Fouling certainly isn’t a major aspect of Grimaldo’s game; he’s currently committing 0.50 fouls per 90 across his Bundesliga appearances.

However,  he can be cynical if required, exemplified by his five yellow cards this season and six yellow cards last season. This is a more discretionary angle based on his positional match-up on the pitch, which paves the way for Gelson Martins to enter the conversation. 

The Olympiacos wide man plays on the right-hand side of midfield. He’s a tricky and pacy ball carrier, often drawing illegal interventions from opposing players to prevent his advances forward. Gelson Martins is being fouled an average of 2.83 times per 90 in the Greek Super League and 2.81 times per 90 in the Champions League.

Taking into account Grimaldo’s left wing back role, there should be plenty of occasions where he has to defensively engage Gelson Martins, increasing the likelihood of committing a foul.

It’s a big occasion for the hosts, and you’d expect an extra air of hostility and energy in the stands.

There’s always an amazing atmosphere created on European nights in Piraeus; it should be no different here, especially accounting for the fact that it’s a two-legged knockout tie. That increased adrenaline may fuel some extra aggression and intensity from the hosts, creating potential moments for cynical fouling or gamesmanship. 

Olympiacos have picked up 14 yellow cards in their eight Champions League games this season, putting the average just below two per game. Bayer Leverkusen do have pace and directness on the counterattack with the likes of Malik Tillman and Ernest Poku, with both of them picking up a cumulative 2.86 fouls per 90 in the Bundesliga this season.

Both of these players certainly have the capabilities of drawing cynical fouls and increasing the chances of Olympiacos cards.