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Joao Cancelo has already landed this selection in two of his three Portugal appearances at this World Cup, committing two fouls against DR Congo in round one and another two against Uzbekistan in round two. This upcoming round of 32 tie against Croatia promises to be a tougher challenge, and Cancelo will have a tough matchup on the flank here. 

Martin Baturina has been starting on the left for Croatia at the World Cup, and he has been fouled 14 times across his three group stage starts. He is a very tricky player to contain, with an ability to change direction quickly, making him adept at winning free kicks and drawing contact. Cancelo has often looked uncomfortable when asked to defend against direct wide players, and he should have plenty of defensive work to get through here against Croatia.

Nikola Vlasic was also the hero for his side in the final group stage game, as he found the back of the net for Croatia against Ghana in the 83rd minute for what proved to be the winner. That goal came from a somewhat unlikely source given that Vlasic only started one of Croatia's qualifying matches, but the former West Ham man will hope to remain in the starting XI for this knockout fixture. 

Vlasic committed two fouls in that recent World Cup start, highlighting how he often tracks back to help his full back defensively. He averaged 1.26 fouls per 90 for Torino this season alongside 1.99 tackles per 90, which exemplifies those defensive contributions. Vlasic will be directly up against Nuno Mendes on the flank here - the PSG left back has drawn nine fouls across his three World Cup starts so far.

Cristiano Ronaldo is going to be more determined than ever to win this World Cup. It’s the only trophy missing from his illustrious career, and he probably won’t get another chance given that he’ll be nearly 45 by the time the next World Cup rolls around.

Ronaldo’s shot volume is really high. He’s taken 13 shots across his three starts at the World Cup so far (4.33 per 90), seeing six of those efforts find the target (2.00 per 90). He was just as trigger-happy during Portugal’s qualifying game with 31 shots across just five starts (7.44 per 90), seeing 12 of those attempts find the target (2.88 per 90).

It’s clear that Roberto Martinez is going to stick with Ronaldo throughout the tournament regardless of his form or how he impacts the rest of the side, so Portugal don’t really have any option other than to play to the strengths of the 41-year-old who has 145 international goals to his name across 231 caps. 

Joao Cancelo has committed three fouls at the World Cup so far (2.00 per 90) and has been replaced at half time twice, with Roberto Martinez clearly not comfortable with the options he has down that side of the pitch.

I think Croatia will look to target this side of the pitch; it’s much weaker than the opposite flank where Portugal have Nuno Mendes operating, so it’s the glaring weak spot in this Portuguese side. Cancelo is very effective going forward but can be clumsy with his challenges; he averaged 1.57 fouls committed per 90 across his four starts for Portugal during qualifying.

I don’t trust the backline of this Portugal side and think they will need to rely on Diogo Costa at times to get them through this tie.

Diogo Costa is a pretty solid keeper and should be able to stand up to the attacking threat of Croatia, who showed they can cause problems with the two goals they scored against England in their opening game of the tournament.

He’s had to make nine saves already at the World Cup across his three starts (3.00 per 90) with a save percentage of 90% - only three keepers of the sides left in the competition can boast a better save percentage than the Porto keeper. 

Portugal’s vulnerability at the back was exposed on a few occasions by Colombia last time out, who managed to draw six saves from Diogo Costa, showing how the keeper will be crucial to any success that Portugal have at the World Cup.

These nations have met quite often over the last few years, with each of the last three head-to-head meetings since 2024 seeing 2+ goals.

I’ve already mentioned the vulnerability of this Portuguese backline, and Croatia could fall into the same bracket. They conceded four goals against England in their opening game, and haven’t really been tested by Panama or Ghana in their other group matches.

Portugal saw 2+ goals in two of their three group matches, except a 0-0 draw against Colombia, which should have really produced a few goals with a combined xG of 2.63 from 36 shots overall.