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PSG v Bayern Munich Bet Builder 🧱 @ 4.07

These sides have already faced off in the Champions League this season, with BTTS landing on that occasion as Bayern came away 2-1 winners over PSG at the Parc Des Princes. That victory made Bayern one of less than a handful of sides that have managed to come to the Parc Des Princes and win over the last few seasons in the Champions League, and sets up Vincent Kompany’s side to get on the scoresheet again here.

That game earlier in the season saw a combined 14 shots on target and both sides registering an xG in excess of 1.0 (1.95-1.53). Bayern Munich have seen BTTS in three of their last four matches, most recently going 3-0 down to Mainz at the weekend before rallying to win 4-3 - a perfect example of how Kompany’s side can be comfortable in high scoring matches with the elite scoring power they have through Kane, Olise and Diaz.

Bayern come into this game having avoided defeat across their last 19 matches, averaging over 3.0 goals per game in this run of fixtures. I can’t see how this clash stays low scoring, there is the factor of it being a first leg so there may be cagey moments at times - but the attacking quality on display in both camps should lead to both sides being able to get on the scoresheet.

Michael Olise scored another brilliant goal at the weekend, there’s an angle available from the crowd if you haven’t seen it where you can see the curve and dip on the ball when he strikes it - it’s well worth the watch. He’s reached another level this season alongside the likes of Diaz and Kane with the trio forming one of the most well balanced frontlines i’ve seen in the modern game.

Olise has scored 22 goals across all competitions for Bayern Munich this season, already eclipsing his tally of 17 he managed in his debut year having played just one game more than he did last term. He’s registered 10 goal contributions across his 11 starts in the Champions League, four of these being goals, which has been achieved from a shot total of 39 (3.90 shots per 90).

Of these 39 efforts from Olise, 16 have found the target (1.60 per 90). These underlying numbers are very impressive, and when paired with the confidence that Olise is currently playing with - there should be opportunities for the former Palace winger to find the target, as he did on two occasions when these sides met in the league phase of the Champions League.

Konrad Laimer is a player that I’ve backed regularly for fouls during this Champions League campaign and he rarely disappoints. The former midfielder now almost exclusively operates as a fullback, and is expected to fill in at left back here where he’ll have a tough test against the likes of Desire Doue and Achraf Hakimi.

Laimer isn’t a bad player, but if you were PSG that’s where you’d be looking to target Bayern as their pressure point. There’s so much attacking quality in this Bayern side that it’s easy to overlook the shortcomings of their backline - which was almost torn apart solely by Vinicius Jr and Mbappe in the second leg of their quarter final clash against Real Madrid.

Laimer has committed 15 fouls across his nine starts in the Champions League this term (1.88 per 90), picking up four yellow cards in the process. I think he’ll struggle to manage Doue in a similar way to how he struggled with Vinicius Jr in the quarter final, Doue has won 14 fouls across his six starts in the Champions League this term (2.08 per 90), and when supported by Hakimi (0.95 fouls won per 90) - the pair should be able to draw at least two fouls from Konrad Laimer.

Ousmane Dembele wins fewer fouls than you may think (0.62 per 90), but this selection mainly focuses on the aggressive and occasionally clumsy nature of the Bayern Munich backline. Vincent Kompany’s side committed 22 fouls across the two legs of their quarter final tie against Real Madrid, with 12 of these fouls being committed by a member of their back four.

Jonathan Tah and Dayot Upamecano both committed 2+ fouls each in the first leg of Bayern’s clash against Real Madrid - struggling to handle the threat of Vinicius Jr and Mbappe. I can see the centre back duo struggling a little again here with the rotations that PSG can put together with how fluid their front three is. Dembele doesn’t just stay in central areas either, he swaps with Doue and Kvaratskhelia - so there will be times where Dembele will be facing up against Laimer (1.88 fouls committed per 90).

This selection landed via Super Sub when the sides met earlier in the campaign. Dembele didn’t really get a chance to test the backline of Bayern as he went off injured after the first 25 minutes of the encounter. He should be able to have a proper run at Tah and Upamecano here - who combine to commit 3.48 fouls per 90 in the Champions League this term.

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Football

PSG v Bayern Munich Player Matchup ⚔️ @ 2.05

Dayot Upamecano has always been a bit of a clumsy centre-back. This is probably his best season to date, but he still has that reckless streak in him – and I can see the Frenchman and his partner Jonathan Tah struggling with some of the rotations that PSG are able to put together in the final third and through their dynamic midfield.

Luis Enrique said something really interesting the other day in an interview I saw, where he mentioned that he wants a group of players who can play anywhere – suggesting it would cause a nightmare for opponents since they wouldn't know who will play where. I'd argue he's actually not that far from achieving this already with this PSG side, who all look comfortable in different areas of the pitch.

Upamecano is averaging 1.61 fouls committed per 90 in the Champions League this season, a fairly substantial increase on his numbers in the Bundesliga. He'll be up against a front three for PSG who average 5.35 fouls won per 90 in this competition.

Ousmane Dembélé wins fewer fouls than you might think (0.62 per 90), but this selection mainly focuses on the aggressive and occasionally clumsy nature of the Bayern Munich backline. Vincent Kompany's side committed 22 fouls across the two legs of their quarter-final tie against Real Madrid, with 12 of those fouls being committed by a member of their back four.

Jonathan Tah and Dayot Upamecano both committed 2+ fouls each in the first leg of Bayern's clash against Real Madrid, struggling to handle the threat of Vinícius Jr and Mbappé. I can see the centre-back duo struggling a little again here with the rotations that PSG can put together, given how fluid their front three is. Dembélé doesn't just stay in central areas either – he swaps with Doué and Kvaratskhelia, so there will be times where Dembélé is facing up against Laimer (1.88 fouls committed per 90).

This selection landed via Super Sub when the sides met earlier in the campaign. Dembélé didn't really get a chance to test Bayern's backline as he went off injured after the first 25 minutes of that encounter. He should be able to have a proper run at Tah and Upamecano here – who combine to commit 3.48 fouls per 90 in the Champions League this term.

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Football

PSG v Bayern Munich Player Focus 🔎 @ 9.00

I’ve picked out the standout players for Tuesday’s Champions League semi-final for an 8/1 double which looks strong on paper.

Kane is enjoying another strong season for Bayern Munich having netted 12 goals across his 10 starts in the Champions League. Kane has scored in each of his last four appearances across all competitions for Bayern Munich, including in the second leg of Bayern’s quarter final clash against Real Madrid - a game in which he managed two shots on target from three attempts overall.

Kane is averaging 4.19 shots per 90 in the Champions League this term which is an astronomical average to maintain in this competition. He’s also seen 21 of his 40 attempts in total find the target, working out to a promising average of 2.20 shots on target per 90. This is an average he’s maintaining in the Bundesliga as well (4.63 shots per 90 & 2.63 shots on target per 90).

Kane is also very capable when it comes to winning fouls having drawn 19 across his 10 starts in the Champions League this season (1.99 per 90). He was fouled twice in both legs of Bayern’s quarter final clash against Real Madrid, with this trait of Kane’s directly related to the centre forward being encouraged to drop into deeper pockets under Vincent Kompany. 

Khvicha Kvaratskhelia is enjoying some season for PSG, he’s already just one goal contribution away from matching the total set by Ousmane Dembele for PSG in the Champions League last season - which was a run of form that probably gave him the edge in the Ballon D’or rankings. Kvaratskhelia really isn’t too far away from that elite level, having netted eight goals across 11 starts in the Champions League this season.

Kvaratskhelia has actually scored more goals in the Champions League this season (8) than he has in Ligue 1 (7), despite playing five more games domestically. He’s averaging 4.28 shots per 90 in the Champions League this term - which is actually higher than Harry Kane, showing just how often the winger has been taking aim in the Champions League this term.

He’s almost impossible to stop when he gets going, averaging 2.65 fouls won per 90 in the Champions League this term. He’ll be up against the likes of Laimer and Stanisic when rotating between the two wings, who are the weaker points in this Bayern side that PSG will be trying to expose as often as possible.

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Tips Feed

Yes - Both Teams To Score

1h ago

Michael Olise - To Have 1 Or More Shots On Target

1h ago

Konrad Laimer - To Commit 2 Or More Fouls

1h ago

Ousmane Dembele - To Be Fouled 1 Or More Times

59m ago

Luis Diaz - Anytime Goalscorer

31m ago

Dayot Upamecano - to Commit 2+ Foul

30m ago

Achraf Hakimi - to have 1+ Shots on Target

29m ago