Los Blancos have averaged 2.44 goals per game so far this season in the Champions League, a figure which bumps up to 2.5 in their 4 home games (although this is very much massaged by a 6-1 thumping of Monaco).

They scored 2 in their away defeat to this very opposition in their final league phase match as well, and even in La Liga, they are going at a clip of 2.42 goals scored per home game (2.16 overall).

Benfica themselves conceded 2 at Juventus, and 3 at Newcastle, and the fact they are 0-1 down in this tie and need to take the game to Real Madrid could play into their hosts’ hands.

With the likes of Kylian Mbappe, Vinicius Jr and Arda Guler lethal on the counter attack, a Benfica need to push forward in search of goals could leave a lot of space for the home forwards to exploit

Real Madrid have averaged 2.44 goals per game so far this season in the Champions League, a figure which bumps up to 2.5 in their four home games (although this is very much massaged by a 6-1 thumping of Monaco).

They scored two in their away defeat to this very opposition in their final league phase match as well, and even in La Liga, they are going at a clip of 2.42 goals scored per home game (2.16 overall). Benfica themselves conceded two at Juventus, and three at Newcastle, and the fact they are 0-1 down in this tie and need to take the game to Real Madrid could play into their hosts’ hands.

With the likes of Kylian Mbappe, Vinicius Jr., and Arda Guler lethal on the counterattack, a Benfica need to push forward in search of goals could leave a lot of space for the home forwards to exploit.

With that being said, Benfica do need to push for goals in order to try and progress here,  and for me, there’s enough to like about their forward line to suggest they’ll get on the scoresheet here and give the 15-time champions something to think about.

Whilst they did lose three of their four away league phase games to nil, these were against high-calibre opposition in Chelsea, Newcastle, and Juventus, who can likely beat most teams without conceding on a going day at home. They will likely take confidence in the fact that they have recently put four past this very side, and knowing they are chasing a game means they will have to fashion chances from the start to stand any chance of reaching the last 16.

Even in the admittedly weak Portuguese league, they still average 1.91 goals per game away from home, and with the experience in the ranks of Vangelis Pavlidis and Rafa Silva, they’ll be hopeful of forcing a close tie.

Whilst only having a single shot on target in his most recent appearance, the Frenchman has covered this line in each of his previous 10 in a Real Madrid shirt, and 15 of his last 20 overall, with an average of 2.33 p90 across that period.

That includes two in both of the recent meetings between the sides, two against Monaco in this competition, and four in the victory away at Olympiacos. Only Liverpool have been able to really tame Mbappe in the Champions League thus far (a game in which he drew a blank) and even with a first leg lead, I don’t think the Benfica backline is at the calibre to stop one of if not the best forwards in the world fashioning enough opportunities to test opposition keeper Anatoliy Trubin on a couple of occasions.

With the game being chased, the open transitional nature of this tie should suit Mbappe’s directness perfectly.

With Benfica in need of at least one goal to force Real’s hand here (and realistically probably more than one given their hosts’ propensity for goals this season), I’d expect the Norwegian midfielder to play a fairly big hand in their siege on Thibaut Courtois’ goal.

He’s had a shot in each of his last six appearances across the Portuguese league and the Champions League (with more than one in five of those), and 12 of his last 15 appearances in those two competitions have seen him muster at least one effort at goal.

Across the two recent games against Real Madrid, he’s had five shots from his deeper midfield position, suggesting a willingness to break the game open and keep opposing keepers honest. He’s also averaged just over 88 minutes per game across that 15-match sample, so there’s a high chance we see him on the pitch for the whole game, maximising the chance of getting this selection up.

With shots in six out of his eight Champions League league phase appearances too, it shows he is not just padding his stats against generally inferior opponents in the domestic game, but is happy taking on the best pedigree that Europe has to offer in games against Juventus (2 shots), Napoli (3), and Chelsea (1).

Benfica versus Real Madrid was perhaps the most eagerly-anticipated first leg playoff fixture, but it didn’t bring as many fireworks as the league phase meeting. Real Madrid won’t mind, though, as they were able to secure a 1-0 victory, putting them in the driving seat heading into the second leg at the Bernabeu. 

Los Blancos aren’t quite home and hosed yet, and Benfica have proven they can fight back against the odds. The Portuguese side will have to open up in Madrid, which could leave gaps to exploit behind. 

Kylian Mbappe was unfortunate not to score against Benfica in the first leg, as he managed five shots with two on target, but he bagged a brace against them in the league phase meeting before that. Mbappe should be looking forward to his matchup, especially given how he has scored five goals in his last four matches at the Bernabeu. 

Leandro Barreiro was an unused substitute for Benfica at the weekend, as Jose Mourinho opted for some rotation. Barreiro has been a key player in midfield for the Portuguese side this season, and looks set for a swift recall to the eleven. He was fouled once in the first leg, but Real Madrid only recorded nine infringements as a team. This second leg clash is likely to be a lot more cagey, especially with only one goal separating the two sides. 

Barreiro was fouled four times against Real Madrid in the league phase, and he should once again have plenty of duels to contest in the middle of the park. He will be up against the likes of Aurelian Tchouameni and Eduardo Camavinga - the latter is averaging 3.02 fouls per 90 since Alvaro Arbeloa took charge. He racked up three fouls off the bench in that league phase meeting, and three fouls again in the first leg.