Southampton’s win over Leicester may have required extra-time on Saturday, but a much changed Saints outfit got the job done over a semi-weakened rival in Leicester last time out, and that made it four wins in a row and no defeat since they lost at home to Hull in mid-January.
Moreover, and pertinently to this match, Saints have now scored in their last eight matches in row, and they continue to both average over 1.5 goals per game, but also create over 1.5xG per match as well.
Ironically, Charlton did win their last away game out at Leicester, but the context of that match was that Leicester went down to 10 early in the encounter, and missed a penalty on the day as well. Prior to that, Charlton had gone eight away league games without a win, drawing a blank on four of those occasions, which is why a goalscoring team in Southampton could have the edge.
Charlton have both scored under a goal a game away from home, but also created less than 1xG per away game as well. Indeed, their xG differential on the road is -0.83xG, whilst Southampton at home have a +0.19xG differential. Hardly dominant, but impressive in comparison, a whole expected goal should be in Saints’ favour if the data is anything to go by.
Tonda Eckert had the boldness to rotate some players for the cup last weekend. This allowed some of his star names to have a bit more rest, and with Charlton playing on Tuesday night, they should have much more energy and fitness on their side over the Addicks.
