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I expected the line on cards to be higher here, mainly because of Southampton’s record. The total cards in Southampton matches this season are 4.13, one of the highest averages in the league.

The average goes down 3.94 when looking at Southampton home matches in the Championship alone, but the yellow card average in QPR’s Championship matches is also just over 3.5, as well so that backs up the angle here.

One of the most experienced referees in the Championship is on the match here in Oliver Langford. This is good news for the bet, though, because he is averaging 4.33 yellow cards per match in his 15 appointments in the second tier this season and has surpassed this line in seven of his last nine matches officiated.

The return fixture also went over this line, which adds some extra weight to the bet.

The centre back is likely to be up against Richard Kone in this match and the combination of Harwood-Bellis receiving fouls and the number of fouls that Kone commits makes this a very palatable price.

Harwood-Bellis is being fouled 1.04 times per 90 this season, and though he wasn’t fouled against Charlton, that ended a five-match streak of being fouled at least once. He was fouled four times against Sheffield United and then three times against Portsmouth in that streak as well.

Kone also didn’t foul last time out, but averages 1.91 fouls per 90 this season, and had made at least one foul in 12 consecutive matches before the Hull match, so he is highly likely to commit at least one foul here, whether it is on Harwood-Bellis, we obviously don’t know but the price is good enough to take that chance.

Southampton have put together a solid run of form over recent weeks, having recovered from the slow start to the season they made under Will Still. Those opening few months of the campaign were a little harsh on Still and Southampton, who routinely put in solid performances, but weren’t rewarded for their efforts.

Tonda Eckert has managed to make the team more clinical in crucial moments, leading to Southampton entering this clash having remained unbeaten across their last five matches across all competitions - seeing BTTS in each of their last three matches. Southampton ran out 2-1 winners when the sides faced off earlier in the campaign, with QPR actually ending up being a bit unlucky to end up without any points on that occasion.

QPR have seen BTTS in four of their last five matches across all competitions, with three of those games producing at least four goals. They’ve seen 40 goals across their 17 away matches this season (2.35 per game), and could use the points here to set up an unexpected push for the play-offs.