Tips Feed

Stanley Mills has just two Championship goals to his name this season after 20 appearances, with his last one coming against Southampton back in December. However, that hasn’t been for the want of trying, as Mills is averaging 2.27 shots per 90 this season for Oxford, which is one of the highest in the squad.

In fact, since he scored against the Saints, he has landed this selection in six out of eight starts. He failed to hit this mark in a tough matchup against Premier League side Sunderland in the FA Cup, and he also managed just one shot against Birmingham. 

Stoke look like a much easier matchup on paper than those two sides, and Mills recorded three shots when he faced Stoke at the Kassam Stadium in November. Operating on the right wing, Mills isn’t afraid to shoot if he can work a yard of space, and he tends to cut inside to shoot, rather than going down the line to cross. 

Oxford United are struggling at the bottom of the Championship, and they are currently five points adrift of safety. It has been a tough season for the Yellows so far, and Stoke were able to fully capitalise when these sides last met, cruising to a 3-0 win at the Kassam Stadium. Despite that, they still registered 13 fouls, and Tatsuki Seko accounted for two of those infringements. 

The Japanese international is averaging 1.33 fouls per 90 in the Championship this season, and that figure rises to 1.60 when playing at home. Seko tends to be aggressive in his press in an attempt to win the ball back high up the field, and he will once again find duels against Cameron Brannagan in midfield. 

The Oxford captain is averaging 1.71 fouls drawn per 90 in the Championship this season, and has been fouled 11 times in his last five starts alone. 

It would be fair to say that momentum is not with Stoke City at the moment. Indeed, they are back in a very familiar position in lower mid-table, a position in which they have finished in all seven seasons that they have been in the Championship since relegation from the Premier League in 2018.

This inertia has even affected Mark Robins now, and pressure is growing on his reign. The Bet365 Stadium is not necessarily the most supportive arena to play in at the moment, as a result, and for Stoke to be odds on in any match (bar Sheffield Wednesday) seems a bit of a trap.

Especially when we consider that Oxford seem to have found a formula for keeping things very tight on the road. They drew 0-0 at Middlesbrough at the weekend, which followed a 0-0 at Coventry as well. In theory, this should be an easier assignment, but Oxford need to start picking up maximum points before they get cut adrift.

Stoke actually have a negative xG differential at home in the league this season, so taking the opposite side of the odds-on for them to win seems like a good value play.