Fleetwood have been unsustainably overperforming defensively, they’ve conceded nearly seven xG more than their goals conceded tally (11 in 10 games) which is the biggest overperformance in the league.

Rotherham rank 8th for xG generated per match and have found the net in 8/10 League Two outings so far this season.

They’ve unsustainably underperformed to score only four from 6.6 xG across their five League Two away games, and face the 3rd-worst defence this weekend, with Fleetwood conceding 1.79 xG per game on average.

Their first choice striker Paul Mullin is not to blame, he’s been clinical with five goals from 3.88 xG - his finishing is not the reason for their underperformance.

The 2.63 about Rotherham scoring over 1.5 goals also appeals this weekend, as does Mullin anytime at 3.50.

Millwall have a significant preparation advantage to host Lincoln at 12:30 on Saturday.

Lincoln were beaten 6-0 at home to West Ham on Wednesday evening, suffering two red cards in the first half.

Where Millwall lost 1-0 at home to Swansea on Tuesday.

So, not only do Lincoln have one less day to recover and prepare for this game, they have to contend with suspensions to Tom Hamer and Conor McGrandles and the worsened fatigue element having had to chase West Ham around for 70 minutes with nine players.

Millwall would’ve been strong favourites to get the win even without that additional context, and this could be a great opportunity to get back on track.

They’re 4th for xG generated this season, underperforming a touch, this could be the game that sees them regress to the mean against a vulnerable Lincoln side given this midweek’s events.

Fleetwood have been unsustainably overperforming defensively, they’ve conceded nearly seven xG more than their goals conceded tally (11 in 10 games) which is the biggest overperformance in the league.

Rotherham rank 8th for xG generated per match and have found the net in 8/10 League Two outings so far this season.

They’ve unsustainably underperformed to score only four from 6.6 xG across their five League Two away games, and face the 3rd-worst defence this weekend, with Fleetwood conceding 1.79 xG per game on average.

Their first choice striker Paul Mullin is not to blame, he’s been clinical with five goals from 3.88 xG - his finishing is not the reason for their underperformance.

The 2.63 about Rotherham scoring over 1.5 goals also appeals this weekend, as does Mullin anytime at 3.50.

Derby are hoping to end a wretched run of form when they welcome Stoke on Saturday afternoon, they’ve failed to win any of their last five matches - but have seen BTTS in four of those games.

Stoke have a much better form heading into this game having won three of their last four matches, with all four of those games seeing BTTS.

It's a battle of the 2nd and 3rd-worst defences in the league according to xG conceded, both are at 1.75 xG conceded per game or more, and of the 20 league games they've played collectively this season, they've managed a combined three clean sheets - 15%.

Everyone knows how Leicester are going to play.

The defending in their 3-1 defeat at home to Peterborough last weekend was comical, and Doncaster have looked a better side than Posh this season.

Donny have found the net in six of eight in the league, scoring nine times from just over 12 xG - so even though they’ve cashed this bet in 75% of their games, the numbers still suggest they should’ve scored more, a healthy situation to take into the weekend.

In Leicester’s only home league clean sheet of the season, they still gave up 1.15 xG which suggests Donny are more than capable of creating the chances that see them cover this line.

The 2.63 on over 1.5 Donny goals also appeals, this could get toxic early on if Leicester don’t start well.

Going into last weekend, Reading were stripped of 59% of their league goals with the players they had out injured - but they coped brilliantly.

Dispatching MK Dons 5-1 on their travels (winning the xG battle 0.44-3.64), demonstrating just how strong they are as a collective.

They now go into this weekend four points off the top of the league, travelling to rock-bottom Wigan.

Wigan picked up just four points this season, losing six of their opening eight league games.

Reading are top of the league on expected points, and have been far superior to Wigan in both boxes - who sit 17th by the same measure.

Wigan have lost 3/4 home league games so far, and haven’t scored in any of their last four in the league.