Jayden Bogle

Calvert-Lewin has started the season really well for Leeds, netting three goals across his five starts in the Premier League - a record that earned him a call up to the latest England camp, where he featured for a few minutes from the bench.

Calvert-Lewin has taken 11 shots in the Premier League this season (2.35 per 90), seeing seven of these efforts find the target (1.50 per 90). That’s a shot accuracy of 64%, which could be really useful for Leeds here against an Arsenal side who don’t concede many efforts.

Arsenal have conceded 3+ shots on target in each of their last three Premier League matches, conceding 5+ shots on target in two of these games against Chelsea and Brighton. 

Leeds are averaging 3.60 shots on target per game in the Premier League and Calvert-Lewin is clearly their main source of goals having accounted for 28% of the total goals that Daniel Farke’s side scored in the top flight last year. 

Saka is averaging 1.94 shots on target from 3.23 shots per 90, which is the third best in the Prem. He also carried that form into the international break, too, scoring two in three games for England from three shots on target.

But something else that stood out to me beyond his shooting stats is where he’s getting the ball. In the league so far, 45% of Arsenal's attacks have come down that right side, and 20% of their shots have come from that zone too.

Also, for England he had more touches in the opposition box than anyone else against both Spain and Croatia, so he's finding dangerous positions whoever he’s against.

Saka scored in this fixture last season as Arsenal came away 5-0 winners at the Emirates. He didn’t feature in the clash at Elland Road, which was another comfortable victory for Arsenal, but Arsenal managed nine shots on target in that clash.

Leeds are now really settled in the 3-5-2 shape that Daniel Farke switched to around halfway through last season, which sparked Leeds into life and pulled them away from the relegation zone.

The wingbacks are really important in this shape, they act as Leeds’ main outlet and can often be targeted by the opposition as a result. Bogle has been impressive in his role at right wingback this season, notably winning eight fouls across his five starts in the Premier League (1.95 per 90).

He’s shown decent consistency when it comes to winning fouls too, winning 29 fouls across his 32 starts in the Premier League last season (0.93 per 90). If you look at Bogle’s heat map, he pretty much hugs the right hand side of the pitch - making his direct opponent Calafiori. The Italian is just as adventurous as Bogle and is averaging 0.65 fouls committed per 90.

Arsenal battered Leeds in both head to head meetings last season, coming away 5-0 winners at the Emirates and 4-0 winners at Elland Road - dominating the underlying numbers in both games.

Arsenal did suffer a bruising defeat to Brighton just before the international break, but have been perfect at home this season: winning both of their games at the Emirates, having scored five goals across these matches and conceding just once.

Leeds are much more threatening when playing at Elland Road, and their struggles at the Emirates last season are likely to mean that three points are beyond their reach in this early kick off. Leeds have only managed to win one of their last five games, and have struggled a little in the final third on the road so far.