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Saturday's EFL Accumulator 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 @ 12.06

Andy Robson

Our last 2 EFL Accas won @ 7/1 & 4/1

The fixture list has played a role in Norwich’s underwhelming start to the season, now taking on Watford, Derby and Bristol City before the international break gives them a chance to decrease the eight-point gap between them and the play-off positions.

They snapped a five-game losing run with a comprehensive 3-1 win at Charlton last weekend, and host a Watford side who have picked up one point from six league away trips.

The visitors rank rock-bottom of the division on expected points, have scored just twice in their six league away games this term, and have the 3rd-worst goal difference in the league - -10 after just 12 games.

Norwich are only one place above them, but are much more respected by the bookies with good reason, this game should demonstrate that the gap between the two sides is a lot bigger than the league table currently suggests.

There’s quite a clear disparity between these sides when it comes to their goalscoring numbers - West Ham have scored double the number of goals than West Brom in the Championship this season.

No side has scored more goals than West Ham in the Championship (32) and it is this scoring power that sets them apart from most of the sides in the division. They have six players who have scored at least three goals in the Championship this season, showing that they aren’t just reliant on Bowen - who has six goals.

West Brom have only scored seven goals across their six away matches in the Championship this season. They’ve tended to struggle against the better sides in the division, despite remaining quite consistent overall - losing to Middlesbrough and Wolves already this term.

Robbie Savage’s early tenure at Peterborough has gone exactly as you’d expect with the former Forest Green boss opting for quite an expansive style of football which has produced goals at both ends.

Peterborough have seen BTTS in five of the six matches that Savage has taken charge of, with the exception of their EFL Cup defeat to Bradford during the week - where they still generated an xG of 1.21 from 16 shots.

Luton also want to play on the front foot under Jack Wilshere, and they come into this clash having seen BTTS in each of their last five matches and no side in League One has seen more goals per game than Luton (3.67).

Stockport are flying at the moment. I backed them as part of my Early 26/27 Outright to be promoted and they look on course to achieve that, sitting second in the division and notably winning four of their six home matches.

Wimbledon have really struggled on the road this season, winning just one of their six away assignments. The real worry for Wimbledon here is their scoring power, they've only scored five goals across these games - only four sides in League One have scored fewer goals on the road than Wimbledon this term.

Stockport also have Kyle Wootton leading the line, who has been in great form in the early stages of the season. He's netted nine goals across his 13 starts, which is more than any other player in League One this term.

Barnet have seen BTTS in 12/12 League Two games this season.

Of the 25 fourth tier games involving these two sides, 20 have seen both teams find the net.

Barnet drew 1-1 with York on Tuesday where Crewe had a free midweek, so there’s extra miles in the legs for the visitors which could make them vulnerable favourites heading into this one.

Crewe are unbeaten at home with three wins and three draws, scoring 11 in that sample (1.83 per game).

Barnet are comfortably the league’s top scorers, despite playing a game fewer than many, and they’re not alarmingly scoring or conceding significantly more than the xG of their games would suggest - their games really are that end-to-end.

Crewe are only outside the top three on goals scored and should be more than competitive against the league’s entertainers.

It’s chaos at Crawley.

Kevin Blackwell has stepped in after Colin Kazim-Richards’ sacking, in an interim capacity, despite having not managed in English football for well over 10 years with his only experience as the main person in the dugout since 2013 being in Thailand and a caretaker spell in Poland.

They’ve picked up just six points from 11 and are already six points adrift of safety.

Oldham are among the league’s biggest underperformers, sitting 20th compared to 10th on expected points, with the 4th-biggest underperformance in the league for that metric.

Sustain that performance level and the results will come.

Crawley are shipping 1.91 goals per game, and the data backs that up, they’re among the worst rearguards in the division on xG against and goals conceded.

Oldham can prey on that, they’re 9th in the league for xG for, scoring only 14 from 19.0 xG and this could be the game where the floodgates finally open.

The -1 appeals as well, 2.80 in places, on an Oldham side who had play-off ambitions at the start of the season playing on paper their easiest game of the campaign.

Crawley are now as short as 1.48 in places to suffer relegation to non-league this term.

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