Sheffield Wed

Marseille are in good form, winning each of their last three League games with BTTS landing in the last two, and I expect this to continue today. They’ve been very impressive in front of goal, recording the highest goals scored per game averaged (2.3) across the whole league.

However, they’re susceptible at the back, which is why I think both teams will score here. They conceded an average of 1.6 goals per game and actually have the worst xG conceded in the whole league (18.5), despite only conceding 13 goals.

Toulouse are also strong in front of goal, averaging 1.5 goals scored per game, and actually have a higher xG than Marseille this season (15.0).

Toulouse have struggled against Marseille in recent meetings, failing to beat them since 2016, and I don’t expect this to change here.

Blackpool have struggled away from home, not winning on the road since August, so this should be a comfortable win for Wednesday.

Blackpool have seen BTTS in nine of their 13 games this season, and have the second worst xG conceded in the league, with 23.49 whilst conceding 20 goals. Despite this, their scoring record isn’t bad, scoring 16 goals from an xG of 14.63, and I think they can cause Wednesday some problems here.

Managerless Wednesday have conceded 13 goals from an xG of 18.88, which suggests they’re overperforming defensively, and this may come to catch them out. They are very strong in attack though, averaging 1.8 goals scored per game.

They saw BTTS in their last game against Cambridge, and caretaker manager Hamshaw's intense, attacking playstyle could see them with defensive gaps for Blackpool to exploit.

Young Boys are unbeaten in the league this season, including a 4-2 victory away from home against Zurich, and I can see this one ending in a similar way.

They’ve scored the most goals in the league with 35, averaging 3.2 goals scored per game, from an xG of 25.4, which is the highest in the division. However, they also average 1.6 goals conceded per game as well as an xG conceded of 16.4, explaining why eight of their 11 games have seen both teams score.

Zurich are also very strong in the BTTS market, seeing this land in 10 of their 11 league games. Both their goals scored and conceded look sustainable in comparison to their xG’s too. They have scored 20 goals from an xG of 16.4, whilst conceding 23 from an xG of 21.9.