Brighton arrive here knowing a win would seal their progression in the group. They are yet to welcome Marseille to the Amex, which is a tough final game, so getting the job done tonight so they can try and regain some domestic consistency must be what de Zerbi is dreaming of.

As ever, they will field a strong side, and though AEK beat them in their first European tie earlier this season, Brighton will count themselves unfortunate to have lost, with the Greek side scoring an incredible headed goal and then nabbing two quite fortunate goals to get over the line 3-2.

Brighton have been in up-and-down form of late, but they are a much better side than this AEK team, and we expect that to show here, despite a few absences. Marseille came to Athens and comfortably beat AEK, and Ajax were able to secure a draw, so if Brighton play even half as well as they are able to, they should return to England with three more points.

Predictions:

🏆 Brighton to win @ 1.57

Brighton have not kept a clean sheet in domestic football this season, and their only clean sheets have both come against one of the worst Ajax sides in recent memory.

The Seagulls have shipped goals to Luton and Sheffield United and will be without the suspended Jan Paul van Hecke for this one. Igor is a capable replacement, but their full-strength defence has struggled to keep clean sheets anyway, so without one of its key components, we should expect this to continue.

AEK Athens simply must get a result here, and with Brighton also looking near-certain to find the net at least once (they have failed to score only once this season, against Chelsea in the EFL Cup), both teams to score looks to be a play that must be included in any bet builder.

Considering just how overwhelmingly likely it looks, having landed in 15 out of 18 games for Roberto de Zerbi’s side this season, even at 1.50 both teams to score still provides decent value. Over 2.5 goals can be backed at 1.60, and that has landed in 12 of 18 for Brighton.

We like the look of both teams to score more, but over 2.5 goals is certainly a solid option also.

Predictions:

🥅 Both teams to score @ 1.50

🥅 Over 2.5 goals @ 1.60

There is no good value to be found in backing any of Brighton’s players to have a shot. Of those who will be featuring, their prices are all far too short and the data does not make a great case for them managing shots or shots on target.

For AEK however, Orbelin Pineda looks to be a very solid option, having registered a shot on target in three of the four group stage games so far, including the reverse fixture at the Amex.

The Mexican midfielder can play a variety of roles, and he is able to use this knowledge to find space for shots. He does not shot particularly often, having averaged just 1.33 shots per 90 this season, but when he does shoot, he is accurate, those 1.33 shots per 90 converting into 1.00 shot per 90.

He has had four shots in the group stage so far, with three of those finding the target, and from these has scored one goal, away at Marseille in October.

Predictions:

🎯 Orbelin Pineda to have 1+ shot on target @ 1.91

In their away games in this Europa League group stage so far AEK have averaged just one corner a game, failing to register a single one in their 3-1 defeat to Marseille.

However at home, the numbers rocket up to 11 corners per game. With AEK having had seven or more corners in both their games at the Agia Sophia Stadium, their corner lines look incredibly low, with four corners sitting at 1.50 and five corners at 2.10.

Brighton have had at least five corners per game in this group stage, averaging six corners per game on the road.

The Seagulls opponents have averaged 4.5 corners per game, and that is with them having faced Ajax twice, who were poor in both games and mustered just eight corners across the two games.

The corner lines look to be an excellent way to add some value into your bet builder, whether it be for the hosts or total corners.

Predictions:

🚩 Over 3.5 AEK Athens corners @ 1.50

🚩 Over 4.5 AEK Athens corners @ 2.10

🚩 Over 8.5 match corners @ 1.57

AEK Athens realistically must get a result here to give themselves the best chance of progression, so their players should be right up for this one.

Having seen 12 cards in their first game, these two sides are no stranger to seeing the referee produce a yellow from his pocket, and we like the chances of this continuing here.

Brighton have had two or more cards in all four group games so far, as have AEK. The Greek side have also racked up four or more cards in three of their four, including eight when the two sides met at the Amex.

With a result needed, the home fans will be all over the Brighton players from the first whistle, and their players should respond, meaning hard tackles left, right and centre.

Sandro Scharer is the man in the middle, and he will be no obstacle to cards being produced, as he is averaging 5.5 cards per game this season, plus 0.25 red cards per game. With both the referee and both teams prior form pointing to cards, any bet builder ignoring the card markets is missing out on some serious value.

Predictions:

🟨 Over 2.5 AEK Athens cards @ 1.95

🟨 AEK Athens to receive the most cards @ 2.20

🟨 Over 4.5 match cards @ 1.60